ORLANDO, Fla. – While the threat of a recession seems to have abated, there’s another danger looming over Florida’s future, UCF economist Sean Snaith announced in his latest forecast.
In his analysis, Snaith explained that worries about tariffs and potential hurricanes appear to have amounted to very little this year, spelling out good news for Florida’s economy in the short term.
On the other hand, the passage of what President Donald Trump dubbed the “Big, Beautiful Bill” may contribute to other problems for the state, Snaith posited.
[BELOW: These metro areas are growing faster than anywhere else in the nation]
“They say that beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and I am struggling to see the beautiful part of a spending bill that will add trillions of dollars to an existing national debt of $37.5 trillion that already has an interest payment burden of over $1 trillion per year,” Snaith wrote.
According to Snaith, the massive spending bill may not have immediate ramifications for Florida’s economy, but decades-long “out-of-control” federal spending will cause major issues in the years ahead.
[RELATED: Here’s how federal spending could be eating away at your savings]
Furthermore, unsustainable debt levels can also hurt Florida residents’ personal finances, with higher prices, stagnating wages and greater borrowing costs being real possibilities.
Snaith laid out some other observations about Florida’s economy in his latest analysis, as well.
Housing Market: Inventory levels have been rising for existing single-family homes, with median sales prices seeing a slight dip from last year.
Gross State Product: Florida’s GDP is expected to reach over $2 trillion by 2028 — roughly doubling after reaching $1 trillion in 2017.
Car Prices: While vehicle inflation has significantly declined, it remains well above pre-pandemic levels, and interest rates on auto loans remain high for the moment.
Employment: Job creation is set to slow down over the next few years, though Florida’s job growth is expected to keep outperforming the rest of the country through 2028.
That being said, economic impacts are set to vary from place to place within the Sunshine State. As a result, Snaith broke down his predictions across each of Florida’s metro areas.
For example, below are the September forecasts for average annual wages in these areas:
Metro AreaPer Capita Income (2025)Per Capita Income (2028)“Real” GrowthCape Coral – Ft. Myers$70,900$81,7007.5%Crestview – Ft. Walton Beach – Destin$75,400$87,3008.1%Deltona – Daytona Beach – Ormond Beach$61,600$71,0007.5%Ft. Lauderdale – Pompano Beach – Deerfield Beach$75,600$88,0008.6%Gainesville$57,700$66,5007.5%Homosassa Springs$50,900$59,2008.3%Jacksonville$69,900$80,3007.0%Lakeland – Winter Haven$46,600$53,8007.4%Miami – Ft. Lauderdale – West Palm Beach$89,000$104,2009.3%Miami – Miami Beach – Kendall$79,500$93,80010.2%Naples – Immokalee – Marco Island$146,300$170,0008.5%North Port – Sarasota – Bradenton$80,600$93,1007.7%Ocala$48,900$55,5006.0%Orlando – Kissimmee – Sanford$61,700$71,5007.9%Palm Bay – Melbourne – Titusville$65,200$75,6008.1%Panama City$56,600$64,5006.2%Pensacola – Ferry Pass – Brent$60,900$69,3006.0%Port St. Lucie$77,700$88,7006.5%Punta Gorda$60,100$69,1007.3%Sebastian – Vero Beach$114,600$131,7007.1%Sebring$48,000$56,6009.9%Tallahassee$61,000$69,0005.6%Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater$68,600$79,1007.5%The Villages$78,800$90,0006.5%West Palm Beach – Boca Raton – Boynton Beach$123,300$143,0008.2%
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