Updated July 3, 2026, 3:22 p.m. ET
The Tampa Bay Rays (51-33) and Houston Astros (43-46) play the opener of a 3-game series Friday at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. First pitch is at 8:15 p.m. ET (Apple TV) . Let’s analyze MLB odds around the Rays vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
2025 season series: Rays 4-3
The Rays are coming off a 5-2 road win over the Kansas City Royals Thursday as -124 favorites with the Under (10) cashing. CF Cedric Mullins went 2 for 4 with a 2-run home run, and LF Chandler Simpson went 3 for 4 with a trio of singles. Tampa Bay swept the Royals, and has won 8 games in a row.
The Astros are coming off an 8-3 home loss to the Minnesota Twins Wednesday as -156 favorites with the Over (8.5) cashing. DH Yordan Alvarez reached base 4 times with 3 singles and 1 walk. LF Joey Loperfido and SS Nick Allen batted in 1 run each. Houston dropped the series to Minnesota 2-1.
Watch MLB on Fubo!Rays at Astros projected starters
RHP Nick Martinez vs. RHP Spencer Arrighetti
Martinez (7-2, 2.66 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in 94 2/3 innings.
Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 3 K in an 6-1 home win vs. Arizona Diamondbacks last FridayCareer vs. Astros: 4-5, 3.94 ERA (64 IP, 28 ER), 1.43 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 in 10 starts2026 on road: 2-1, 2.18 ERA, (41 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 39 H, 7 BB, 24 K in 7 starts
Arrighetti (7-4, 4.00 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 72 innings.
Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 8 ER, 5 H, 5 BB, 7 K in an 8-0 loss at Detroit Tigers last FridayCareer vs. Rays: 0-1 in 1 start, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 12 K2026 at home: 3-1, 3.56 ERA, (30 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 19 H, 10 BB, 34 K in 5 startsRays at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:24 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Rays -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Astros -105 (bet $105 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+145) | Astros +1.5 (-175)Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Rays at Astros picks and predictionsPrediction
Rays 5, Astros 2
PASS.
With the Rays currently on a roll and having the better pitching matchup in this game, I’m betting them on the run line as they should win comfortably.
BET RAYS (+145).
Arrighetti has lost 3 consecutive starts, surrendering 18 runs during that span. Martinez has allowed more than 3 runs in just 1 start this season. The Rays are hot offensively, scoring 57 runs over their last 9 games.
BET UNDER 8.5 (+100).
Even though Tampa Bay has been putting up a lot of runs lately, the Astros’ offense should be held in check by Martinez. The Rays have hit the Under in 5 of their last 6 games.
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