Now that the holiday weekend has subsided, people are begrudgingly headed back to real life, already missing the barbecues, poolside beverages, beach days and lively celebrations of the 250th anniversary of our nation’s founding.

That makes it a great time to offer another robust analysis of the state of St. Pete’s mayoral election. Mail ballots will be hitting mailboxes soon, polling is offering an early glimpse into possible outcomes, and at least one campaign appears asleep at the wheel.

But to start, let’s take a look at something arguably small in the grand scheme of affordability issues plaguing people everywhere, but that’s important to a lot of city residents, especially this year.

Dud fireworks

I posted on the Shore Acres Neighborhood Civic Association Facebook page over the holiday weekend that the City of St. Pete’s fireworks display was subpar compared to years past, and was particularly disappointing considering it was America’s 250th birthday.

While a few people chimed in to defend the display, I wasn’t surprised to see numerous people agreeing with me. One person lamented the show was too short, arguing the Clearwater Thrashers “do better than St. Pete by a landslide.” Another said they were still upset about it, adding that they felt “bad for people who gathered hours early thinking it was going to be great.” Someone called the display the “Dollar General package,” while yet another said the show “felt oversold and underwhelming.”

And it wasn’t just comments on my post. I searched “St. Pete fireworks” on Facebook to see if there were other lamentations. One person created a time lapse of the entire show, condensing the display into just 10 seconds, and it really emphasized my point. I saw a comment on that same post saying the display was “nothing compared to what Tampa did.” Another said “neighborhoods in Saint Pete did more than that.” Another added: “I wouldn’t say they sucked, but was definitely expecting a larger spectacle for 250.” Yet another said the “fireworks sucked compared to other locations nearby.”

Let’s just think about that for a second. St. Pete is the largest and most populous city in Pinellas County, by far. Yet its fireworks display, according to numerous accounts, paled in comparison to smaller communities with smaller budgets.

Our St. Pete reporter, Jesse Mendoza, has filed a public records request with both the city of St. Pete and Tampa asking for each city’s budget for their respective fireworks displays. As of publication, neither city had responded to the request. But if I were a betting man, and Kalshi will tell you I am, I’d put my money on Tampa having invested much more in their display than St. Pete. (Speaking of Kalshi, the St. Pete Mayor’s race is there, and as of Monday morning put Crist at 81% odds of winning the August Primary.)

In this day and age, the firework issue is a minor beef. But it’s indicative of a larger problem in Mayor Ken Welch’s administration, where inadequate leadership affects the public amenities we have come to expect and enjoy from our city.

And the perception matters to Welch, who is facing a challenging re-election battle, because …

Ballots are going out soon

Overseas ballots were mailed last Thursday, and all other mail ballots will begin being sent next week. That means, essentially, the election is now. Not August. Now.

Having a disappointing fireworks show, which was highly anticipated considering the milestone nature of this year’s celebrations, could serve as a determining factor for at least some voters who were on the fence about their voting choice.

Will it make a huge difference? Probably not. But the point is, Welch is running out of time to shore up support for a re-election campaign that has seen challenge after challenge, from campaign cash theft, shuffling political committees, stagnant donations and what appears to be limited campaigning (more on that in a second).

For the Fourth, Welch needed a big morale boost. He needed people to fall in love with their city all over again. And by proxy, he needed residents to fall in love with the city under HIS leadership. Instead, voters will begin receiving ballots next week with, dare I say, a sulfuric taste in their mouth.

Continuing cash struggles

Campaign finance reports were due last week for political committees, and records now publicly available show Welch continuing to struggle with fundraising. For the period covering June 20-26, Welch’s St. Petersburg Progress political committee raised just $1,500. The period before that, from June 13-19, he didn’t raise a dime. The $1,500 raised most recently came from just one donor, Morgan Macmillan.

Meanwhile, St. Pete Shines, the political committee supporting Charlie Crist for Mayor, raised more than $25,000 in the most recent reporting period, nearly 17 times more than Welch’s committee in the same period. What’s worse for Welch, Crist’s committee maintains more than $1.2 million on hand. Welch’s committee has less than $235,000. Combined with the less than $25,000 left in his campaign account, Welch has less than $260,000 to make his case to voters.

The question for Welch now becomes: Does he burn through what relatively little cash he has to attack Crist, or does he use it to defend his No. 2 position and force a November runoff? Polling suggests it would be unwise to go the first route, and more feasible to use resources instead attacking the No. 3 and No. 4 polling candidates — City Council Member Brandi Gabbard and former St. Pete Fire Chief Jim Large.

While doing so could ensure Welch lives to fight another day, he’d enter the next round tapped on cash and at a continued disadvantage. Simply put, there’s no way to sugarcoat the financial situation in which Welch finds himself.

And speaking of that poll …

A St. Pete Polls survey taken last week found Crist with nearly 28% support, more than 12 percentage points ahead of Welch and more than 17 points ahead of the rest of the mayoral race field.

But what’s worse for Welch, the latest poll shows his support declining among Black voters, a bad sign for the incumbent serving as the city’s first Black Mayor. A March poll showed Welch leading among Black voters with 55% support, a huge lead over Crist at just 16% support. Fast forward to late June, Crist’s support among Black voters increased by 14 percentage points, while Welch’s slipped 13 percentage points, indicating he is bleeding support to Crist.

How does this happen? Well, it might be a controversial take, but I’ve heard from some that Welch simply is just not as entrenched in the community as other Black leaders. One prominent former elected official told me his community involvement has historically been lower than others in the community, and that his ties to the community aren’t as solid as Welch would lead you to believe.

There’s also this: St. Pete’s Black community skews largely liberal. Welch used to be a Republican.

There’s also something else:

He’s just not campaigning hard enough

I took a look at Welch’s social media channels for his campaign. His campaign website links to accounts on X, Facebook and Instagram. The Instagram link is broken. When searching for the actual page, there is one, but it has just 11 posts and 17 followers. To put that into perspective, Crist’s Instagram account has 1,730 posts and 14,300 followers.

Welch’s Facebook page is more active, but still relatively quiet. He posted just once on the Fourth of July. The day before, he also posted just once. He didn’t post anything at all on July 2. He posted on June 26, and then not again until June 30. In general, Welch appears to be posting once or twice per day, but sometimes with a day or several in between posts. And the content that is shared lacks pizazz.

Crist’s Facebook page, by contrast, features several posts per day. Many are videos of the former Governor meeting with constituents or participating in community events. There are posts encouraging voters to request mail ballots. There’s even a video of Crist attending Welch’s America 250 flag raising ceremony, which must have been awkward for all involved.

That’s just a sampling of the contrast in social media presence. Add that to Welch’s lackluster fundraising activity, his poor polling, ongoing city gripes and what appears to be a virtually nonexistent earned media strategy, and it becomes even more clear that Team Welch is a camp in trouble.

And just one more thing … 

We’re hearing Large’s supporters believe he will win. And not just win the election, win it in August. I kid you not, this is what people are saying. Why the sarcasm about this prediction? Large’s most recent polling numbers show him still stagnating in single-digit support.

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Ed. note: Michelle Todd Schorsch is the Chair of St. Pete Shines, a political committee backing Crist for St. Petersburg Mayor. Todd Schorsch is married to Schorsch, the publisher of Florida Politics.