With Training Camp on the coming horizon, Jacksonville Jaguars fans and media filling the dead zone period between now and the first padded practice could do a lot worse than rewatching the 2025 season from start to finish. And for those, like me, who have, one thing becomes immediately clear: Anthony Campanile’s defense did not just benefit from turnovers in 2025, it was almost entirely defined by them.
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 7: Defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile and Foyesade Oluokun #23 of the Jacksonville Jaguars celebrate during an NFL 2025 game against the Indianapolis Colts at Everbank Stadium on December 7, 2025 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Logan Bowles/Getty Images) Getty Images
The numbers behind the 2025 Jacksonville Jaguars tell a story that is difficult to ignore. A team that in no way could be defined by their sack numbers, ending the season 27th in the NFL, totaled 31 turnovers in 17 regular season games. While struggling to get the quarterback to the ground, the 13-win Jaguars averaged just under two takeaways per game, while simultaneously facing the league’s second fastest time to throw metrics. The plan was clear: stop the run on first downs, bring a heavy blitz presence on second and fourth downs. Use stunts and games mercilessly on passing downs. Eventually the opposing quarterback or skill players will provide an opportunity for a game-shifting play, as long as Jacksonville’s defenders capitalized. And capitalized they did.
When the Jaguars won the turnover differential, they were 8-1, with the only defeat coming against the Cincinnati Bengals, courtesy of a late, fourth-down, pass interference penalty that most observers in Duval would argue should never have been called. Remove that single play, and this team was effectively perfect when it controlled the turnover margin.
Including the Wild Card playoff loss to Buffalo, Jacksonville went 3-3 when the turnover battle was even, and 2-1 when losing it. In matchups where Jacksonville failed to force a single turnover, the Jaguars went 1-2 last season, with both losses coming against NFC West opponents in the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams, and the lone victory coming in a close, Week 12 overtime matchup against the Arizona Cardinals.
Positive Turnover Diff: 8-1 record (88.9%)Tied Turnover Diff: 3-3 record (50%)Negative Turnover Diff: *2-1 record (66.6%)
Most notably, according to a Harvard study, NFL teams with a positive turnover differential normally win 69.4-percent of their matchups. The 2025 Jaguars out-kicked the coverage in that area, in a big way, by winning 88.9-percent of last season’s matchups with a positive differential. From that study, teams with a +1 turnover differential historically win 69.4% of games, +2 differential results in 82.3% of games won, and +3 turnovers wins 91.4% of possible games.
2025 Jacksonville Jaguars
No Turnovers Forced: 1-2 record (33.3%)1+ Turnover Forced: *12-3 record (80%)2+ Turnovers Forced: 8-2 record (80%)3+ Turnovers Forced: 5-1 record (83.3%)
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 7: Devin Lloyd #0 of the Jacksonville Jaguars takes the field for introductions prior the the game against the Carolina Panthers at EverBank Field on September 7, 2025 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images) Getty Images
The formula was as pure as it was simple: force turnovers, win games. This brings the conversation directly to the most significant defensive departure of the offseason: All-Pro linebacker Devin Lloyd, who signed with the Carolina Panthers this spring. It is difficult to overstate what Lloyd meant to this defense in 2025. He tied for second in the NFL in interceptions, while playing for a team that finished second in the league in interceptions as a unit. Reducing his impact to a raw interception total, however, somewhat sells his 2025 contributions short.
The Jaguars almost certainly do not beat the Kansas City Chiefs without Devin Lloyd’s Pick-6, which swung the momentum of that game. His two-interception performance in a five-point victory over the San Francisco 49ers was equally decisive. Lloyd was not just generating turnovers, he was generating them in the moments that mattered most.
The context and nuance, in the Devin Lloyd conversation, is probably worth examining closely. Four of his five interceptions on the season came before Week 6. Following a two-game absence due to a calf injury, Lloyd recorded just one interception across the final ten games of the regular season. During this stretch, the team’s turnover production didn’t collapse, largely due to Antonio Johnson’s timely emergence in the second half of the 2025 season.
Following Eric Murray’s neck injury and the team’s increased usage of three-safety packages against the Rams and Seahawks, Johnson’s defensive snap count climbed steadily. So did his interception production. Four of Johnson’s five interceptions on the season came after the bye week, coinciding almost directly with the period in which Lloyd’s turnover contributions slowed. What looked from the outside like a defense running on the same engine all season was, in reality, a defense whose primary turnover generator shifted from one player to another at almost precisely the midway point. That context matters enormously when evaluating what the 2026 Jaguars defense actually lost in Devin Lloyd’s departure.
The case that this secondary may less dependent on Lloyd than the raw numbers suggest is a legitimate one, particularly with Johnson entering 2026 coming off a season in which he earned the top overall PFF safety grade in the NFL. The arrival of third-round rookie Jalen Huskey and a return of Caleb Ransaw adds additional potential playmakers to a safety room that already ranks among the deepest position groups on this Jacksonville roster. Ventrell Miller’s lack of mention isn’t to indicate that Miller won’t be able to perform at the level of 2025 Devin Lloyd. It is, however, an acknowledgment that Lloyd leaves large shoes to fill, while also noting that, even Llo(yd himself struggled to fill them to his early-season performance standards.
The question that remains, however, is the one that defined several weeks of the 2025 regular season, and most importantly, the postseason loss: can this defense win consistently when the turnover fortune dries up? It’s a question Jaguars fans will hope this team never has to answer in 2026, assuming the turmovers keep coming. But as it stands, given how tightly this team’s win-loss record correlated with its ability to create negative plays in 2025, repeating as a top-five turnover-forcing defense is not simply a goal for Campanile’s unit in 2026. It’s almost a prerequisite.