How much rain will potential tropical system drop on Tampa Bay?

Heavy thunderstorms that started along coastal Tampa Bay overnight Thursday are expected to worsen through the weekend.

National Hurricane Center meteorologists are watching an area of low pressure above the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The system has slim chances of developing over the next week: 20%.

It’s still expected to bring 3 inches of rain to inland Hillsborough and 6inches of rain to coastal Pinellas, Manatee and Pasco counties through the weekend, said Christianne Pearce, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Ruskin office.

By early next week, some areas could see up to 8 inches of rain.

“From now until probably Tuesday, we’ll have this lingering moisture,” Pearce said. “So heavy rainfall obviously probably would lead to some urban low-lying areas getting some street flooding.”

Pinellas County issued a weather alert early Friday warning residents of potential flash flooding.

Showers and storms are expected to linger in the Gulf through Friday morning before moving inland later into the afternoon.

A brief spell of dry air is expected to hinder rains Saturday before they start again Sunday.

The forecast is good news for the region, which has been in an extreme drought since at least April.

The Tampa Bay area is missing 15 to 20 inches of rain so far this year. A half-foot of it over the weekend could help reduce that deficit.

“It’s definitely going to help. As far as like, completely getting rid of it? Not so much,” Pearce said. “We’d need like a whole month to help provide a ton of relief for the drought.”

The National Hurricane Center is also watching a tropical wave off the West African coast. Like the Gulf disturbance, it has low chances of forming in the next week.

The 2026 hurricane season has been quiet so far.

Colorado State University researchers predict less tropical activity than usual this year: nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane.

Tropical Storm Arthur has been the only named storm to develop. The next name on the list is Bertha.