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Tracking the Tropics: Gulf disturbance could bring heavy rain to Florida’s west coast, Panhandle
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Tracking the Tropics: Gulf disturbance could bring heavy rain to Florida’s west coast, Panhandle

  • July 18, 2026

The next named storm will be Bertha

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A disorganized weather system over the eastern Gulf of America is worth keeping an eye on — and if you live along Florida’s west coast or in the Panhandle, it’s worth keeping a close eye.

Showers and thunderstorms are already firing over the eastern Gulf, linked to an upper-level low and a surface trough. Right now, the National Hurricane Center says pressures in the area are running high, and there are no signs of a defined surface circulation — meaning this is not yet a tropical system. But that could change.

Slow, gradual development is possible as the system drifts northward over the coming days. In the meantime, the bigger immediate concern for residents is heavy rainfall expected to impact portions of the Florida west coast and Florida Panhandle over the next several days.

Development chances remain low — but worth watching

As of now, the odds of this becoming a organized tropical system remain relatively low:

30% chance of formation within 7 days

10% chance of formation within 48 hours

Copyright 2026 by WJXT News4JAX – All rights reserved.

About the AuthorMichelle McCormick headshotMichelle McCormick

Michelle McCormick joined News4Jax in December 2023 and in February 2024, she happily accepted the opportunity to officially join the News4Jax Weather Authority team as the weekend morning meteorologist. She is a member of both the American Meteorological Society and National Weather Association.

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