Yet another survey of Florida voters shows November’s election for Governor may look more like the old days than the 2022 Republican landslide.
A poll from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab shows potential Republican nominee Byron Donalds ahead of likely Democratic pick David Jolly 51% to 46%.
The survey tracks with an average of recent polls showing Donalds ahead by a similar margin, and again shows a race where the massive Republican registration advantage may not translate into an overwhelming win for the GOP.
Part of the reason it is so close is because Jolly, a former Republican Congressman turned moderate Democrat, does a better job getting voters to cross over than does Donalds, a Congressman from Naples powered to the front of the Primary race by President Donald Trump’s endorsement.
Jolly takes 7% of Republicans, suggesting Donalds will have some work to do if he wins the Primary as expected. Donalds only takes 2% of Democrats. Voters outside of the two parties are almost evenly split, with Donalds taking 39% and Jolly 38%.
Donalds, who could be the first Black man to be Governor, has yet to translate what would be a historic achievement into appeal to Black voters. Just 6% of those polled back him, compared to 83% behind Jolly.
Jolly leads with Hispanic voters also, 53% to 35%.
However, White voters are on board with Donalds, 55% to 34%.
Donalds is most dominant in North Florida, leading Jolly 52% to 31%. He also leads in Central Florida, 46% to 43%. However, Jolly is up in South Florida, 45% to 43%.
Interestingly, the survey shows Donalds with some work to do with Trump voters despite the endorsement. He takes 87% of that group. While only 2% support Jolly, with 6% preferring “someone else,” the attrition suggests that the President’s preference isn’t guaranteeing universal support.
Jolly is the preference of 90% of those who voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024, with Donalds taking just 2%.
Both Donalds and Jolly have moved toward General Election messaging.
Donalds is warning Republicans that Jolly will attempt to message the way President Barack Obama did in 2008, selling a purportedly radical agenda with measured language and unifying rhetoric.
Jolly said that he would win if the election were right now at Saturday’s the Florida Democratic Party’s Leadership Blue conference, but acknowledged he will need a coalition that is “bigger than our party” to prevail ultimately
The poll was conducted between July 8 and July 17. It has a +/- 3.8% margin of error. Republicans made up 46% of the sample, Democrats 33%, and the remainder is classified as “NPA/Other.”