The Tampa Bay Rays got back on the right foot with a dominant win over the Cleveland Guardians last night, extending the latter’s losing streak to three games. This weekend series continues on Saturday with first pitch set for 6:10 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Guardians vs. Rays game, courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Rays prediction, preview
Last night’s game was quite the blowout as the Rays won 11-3 at home. They tallied 15 hits on the evening and got a 4-for-4 showing with two RBI from Nick Fortes while Cedric Mullins, Jonny DeLuca and Chandler Simpson all logged multi-hit outings as well. For the Guardians, standouts were Gabriel Arias and Austin Hedges, but the club tallied just seven knocks on the day without much to show for it.
With the loss, Cleveland is now 54-51 on the season with a -14 run differential, going 6-7 All-Star break. Tampa Bay, however, got its 60th win of the year and is 60-43 with a +38 differential, perhaps finding the spark it needs at 4-5 since the break as well.
The Guardians’ starter tonight is RHP Tanner Bibee (4-9). He’s delivered a quality season overall with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. His 19.1% K% isn’t great with just 92 strikeouts over 119.0 IP, but a 7.3% BB% is decent and his numbers do look solid for the most part. He’s backed by a bullpen with a 3.77 ERA that ranks sixth, plus a 1.32 WHIP and a high 16.1% K-BB%.
RHP Nick Martinez (9-2) starts for the Rays tonight. He doesn’t boast much, if any strikeout potential with a 13.7% K% that ranks in the second percentile thanks to just 62 punchouts over 111.1 IP. However, a 4.4 BB% is elite and he carries a 2.59 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP, keeping exit velo and hard-hit balls down. The club’s bullpen sits 17th in ERA at 4.13 with a 1.22 WHIP and a 13.6% K-BB%.
Even despite being on the wrong side of their splits yesterday, the Rays showed the upside of this offense. They’re sixth in OPS this season at .739 and average 4.56 runs per game. They do lack the standout power of some clubs with a .144 ISO that falls fourth-to-last and 105 homers, 25th, but that doesn’t stop them. They’re still in sole possession of the best K% in baseball at 19.0%, which sets up an 0.48 BB/K ratio and keeps runners on the basepaths with the fifth-best OBP. And against right-handed pitching, Tampa Bay slashes .263/.337/.416 for a .753 OPS.
The Guardians’ numbers leave a lot to be desired overall. They average only 4.00 runs per game, second fewest, and a .687 OPS ranks 27th in baseball. Power is a problem for them as well with a .143 ISO that falls third-to-last and 104 homers, just one fewer than the Rays for 26th. An 0.43 BB/K ratio is slightly above average, but they’re also just 23rd in OBP and 27th in wOBA. As for the split against right-handers, they slash .237/.312/.388 for a .701 OPS.
Guardians vs. Rays pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rays as -125 Moneyline favorites at home tonight with the Guardians entering as +104 road underdogs. The run total sits at an even eight for this game.
Martinez has been excellent this month, amassing a 2.16 ERA and allowing just four earned runs across 16.2 IP. He’s the ultimate soft-contact guy and keeps runners off the basepaths quite well, and the Cleveland lineup isn’t really one to fear in the first place. In his lone start against the Guardians earlier this season, he also went a full 7.0 innings of shutout ball with just three hits and one walk allowed. Bibee has been solid, as has his club’s bullpen, but it feels like the Rays’ splits against right-handed pitching should win out since they’re third in wRC+ in such matchups. After yesterday’s big game, they seem to be finding their stride and could put forth another impressive result here at home.