July 26, 2026, 6:59 a.m. ET
The Cleveland Guardians (54-52) and the Tampa Bay Rays (61-43) wrap up a 3-game series Sunday at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. First pitch is scheduled for 12:15 p.m. ET (Peacock). Let’s analyze MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rays lead 4-1
The Rays picked up a 3-0 win as slight favorites (-120) Saturday as the Under (8) cashed. Tampa Bay has won the first 2 games of the series by a combined 14-3 score, with the Over-Under 1-1. In Saturday’s game, Rays RHP Nick Martinez (6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 5 K) earned the victory, while DH Yandy Diaz had a single, double and run scored in 4 at-bats out of the leadoff spot. The Rays have won 5 of the past 6 games, while the Under is 3-1 in the past 4 outings.
For the Guardians, they collected just 5 hits in Saturday’s shutout loss. DH Travis Bazzana went 2 for 4 out of the 3-hole, but he also grounded into a double play. The Guardians have dropped 4 in a row, scoring just 4 runs in the past 3 losses. The Under and Over have alternated in each of the past 6 contests.
Watch MLB on Fubo!Guardians at Rays projected starters
LHP Parker Messick vs. RHP Drew Rasmussen
Messick (8-5, 2.68 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 117 2/3 innings.
Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 4 H, 1 HR, 0 BB, 6 K in 5-2 home win vs. Minnesota Twins Tuesday2026 road splits (9 starts): 5-3, 2.35 ERA (53 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 8 HR, 16 BB, 52 KCareer vs. Rays (3 starts): 2-0, 0.96 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 0.91 WHIP, 1 HR, 2 BB, 19 K (9.2 K/9)
Rasmussen (8-5, 3.28 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 104 1/3 innings.
Last start: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 12-2 victory at Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday2026 home splits (9 starts): 5-3, 3.51 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 4 HR, 10 BB, 49 KCareer vs. Guardians (5 starts, 7 appearances): 0-1, 3.57 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 2 HR, 7 BB, 20 K (7.9 K/9)Guardians at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:54 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Guardians +118 (bet $100 to win $118) | Rays -145 (bet $145 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-190) | Rays -1.5 (+155)Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Guardians at Rays picks and predictionsPrediction
Guardians 3, Rays 2
The GUARDIANS (+118) are worth a look as short dogs as they look to salvage a game in the series before heading out of town.
The bad news for Cleveland is that Tampa Bay is 20-10 vs. LHP, so pump the brakes and don’t get too carried away. Still, Messick has been rolling along quite nicely, and he should do enough to pitch the Guards to a narrow win.
If you can’t bring yourself to back Cleveland +1.5 (-190) straight up, backing it on the run line is too expensive. It will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s too much risk for a straight up play.
AVOID.
UNDER 7 (-110) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
It’s a low number, but go lightly with Messick and Rasmussen likely to put up plenty of donuts.
The Under is 5-1 in the past 6 road games for the Guardians, and 8-2 across the previous 10 outings. For the Rays, the Under is 3-1 in the past 4 games, and Tampa Bay pitching has allowed 11 total runs across the past 6 games, or 1.8 runs per game (RPG).
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