Last night, the College Football Playoff committee released their first rankings of the year. In those rankings, the Miami Hurricanes came in at 18th.
There’s plenty of conversation on social media and in the comments about the rankings which include things like Notre Dame being 10 places higher than Miami. But we’re gonna pivot away from that conversation to turn our focus inward and answer the only question that matters:
What help does Miami need to make the CFP bracket?
It’s a long list, but hey, it’s College Football and strange things happen. Here we go.
This is absolutely essential. Think of this as “Miami helping themselves.” We play sports to win the games, and for Miami to have any chance, even an infinitesimal one, to make the College Football Playoffs, they have to win all their remaining games.
I wrote this weeks ago after the Louisville loss, but this is EVEN MORE the case now. Before, it was “win out and go 11-1 and you’ll make the CFP, even if it’s not in the top 4.” Now, it’s “win out and hope for more help (listed below) and pray.”
Either way, to have any chance at making the CFP, if Miami doesn’t win out, then nothing else matters.
Head to Head losses in games between CFP ranked teams
This is a footnote really, but I didn’t want to leave it out and have people scream at me for not being thorough.
To have a chance at the CFP, Miami needs losses from teams tanked in front of them in the closing weeks of the regular season. Whoever loses in the Big 10 Championship game between likely undefeated Indiana and Ohio State is absolutely making it in over Miami…and they should.
But, there are other games between ranked teams ahead of Miami that the Canes can profit from. For example, Pittsburgh hosts Notre Dame next weekend. A Pitt win would be money for Miami. And, if the first point comes true — Miami winning out — that means the Canes would beat Pitt down the road as well.
There are plenty of games with multiple teams ranked ahead of Miami. IMO, we need the higher ranked team to win, and the lower ranked team (the one with fewer losses and more closely ranked to Miami) need to catch an L. It’s easier to move up with the lower ranked teams falling away, than to have highly ranked teams (like Alabama, for example) lose, but still be above Miami and also boost the profile of the team that beats them …who is also ranked above Miami. Seems logical to me, and I hope to you, too.
Here’s a list of H2H games between CFP ranked teams, including present rankings, and the result that would help Miami most. I’ve kept this to teams ranked 10 and lower, since most of the H2H games for teams ranked higher likely won’t have a direct impact on Miami’s path to a potential CFB berth. Here we go:
#10 Notre Dame at #24 Pitt (November 8) — need a Pitt win#12 Oklahoma at #4 Alabama (November 15) — Need Alabama win#11 Texas at #5 Georgia (November 15) — Need Georgia win#24 Pitt at #17 Georgia Tech (November 22nd) — Need a Pitt win(I know y’all are freaking out about seeing 2 Pitt wins on this list, but refer to the previous point; Miami winning out includes a win over Pitt in the finale, making us 10-2 and them 9-3. It works out….IF WE WIN)#16 Vanderbilt at #25 Tennessee (November 29th) — Need a Tennessee win#3 Texas A&M at #11 Texas (November 28) — Need an aTm (that’s A&M, y’all) win
Losses by CFP ranked teams to unranked teams
Here is where Miami REALLY needs some help. The H2H games listed above are guaranteed to happen, and have a ranked team lose. Yeah yeah yeah, cool cool cool. But, for Miami to move up in a serious way, they’re gonna need additionally, upset losses by teams ranked in front of them. This is ON TOP of the results that would be most helpful from the above point. Yeah. Losing those 2 games really, seriously put Miami behind the 8 ball, guys.
I’m focusing this part on 3 teams, because other teams ranked in front of Miami like Texas, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame are likely to win the games they should, and are already listed above for when/how they can lose that will help the Canes.
#13 Utah. A non-ACC team, Utah could still drop a game to help the Canes out. They have a bye this week, then play Baylor on the road, return home to play Kansas State, then end the year on the road at Kansas. I mean, ONE of those teams can have a special day and get Utah out of the way, no!?
#14 Virginia. They have games against Wake Forest at home, on the road at Duke, a bye, then the rivalry game against Virginia Tech at home to close the year. Again, a loss or two would be type lovely! And their dark magic run of luck has to run out eventually.
#15 Louisville. They have games against Cal at home, Clemson at home, on the road at SMU, and the rivalry game against Kentucky at home to close the year. Would love it if they lost a game or two here (and it doesn’t really matter which one(s)!)
Would OTHER random upset losses help? Sure! But, when you combine this list with the previous list, there are tons of results that, combined with Miami winning out, could help the Canes move up into the fringe range of a CFP berth.
I know what you’re thinking: “Cam. Give it up. I don’t want to hear it. Miami has already wasted this season and nothing is gonna change that.” And, I hear you. I honestly do.
But, after the CFP rankings dropped, and seeing all the chatter about the state of affairs, I wanted to take my own swing at looking at the help that Miami would need —ALLLLLLLLL the help, my goodness — to potentially have this season not be the massive, colossal, legendary failure it’s shaping up to be.
I already said I don’t expect everything to go Miami’s way — hell, we could (will?) lose another game in the final weeks of the season and render all the other hypotheticals moot. But, we’re here for commentary and analysis at State of the U, so I’ve commented and analyzed.
If you made it this far, leave your thoughts in the comments. If you didn’t, well, I guess I’ll never know, will I?