As the 2026 MLB campaign rolls into August, the Miami Marlins and the National League East rival New York Mets will continue their four-game series at Citi Field.
The Mets (47–64, 5th NL East) took Thursday’s opener, 4–2, before the Marlins (56–55, 3rd NL East) answered with a 5–2 win on Friday. The clubs have split their first eight games of 2026 with five more to go.
Looking at the pitching probables, we’ve got Miami right-hander Tyler Phillips (2–5, 3.52 ERA) taking on New York southpaw Zac Thornton (2–1, 2.43 ERA).
First pitch is at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Mets enter as 1.5-run favorites with -131 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Marlins are +109 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U nine runs.
Marlins vs. Mets Preview
Miami Marlins
The Marlins couldn’t have started the second half of 2026 on a worse note, dropping nine straight games after the All-Star break. They bounced back with a three-game sweep of the Phillies, but they’ve lost significant ground and now find themselves 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot.
Miami ranks 23rd in wRC+ and 24th in xwOBA since the Midsummer Classic, though the team’s blossoming young core seems to be recovering its rhythm. Kyle Stowers has crushed four home runs in his last six games — including both matchups against the Mets — while Griffin Conine has gone deep twice over his last five.
Meanwhile, the club’s pitching staff, particularly its bullpen, has largely unraveled. While it has performed well enough in the first two matchups in New York, the Marlins’ arm barn ranks 29th in ERA (5.98) since the break.
Saturday’s starter, right-hander Tyler Phillips, has performed well in 2026 with a 3.52 ERA across 27 appearances (11 starts). He’s also performed well against the Mets, allowing three earned runs over two appearances (8.2 IP). Still, the 28-year-old’s underlying metrics — a 4.71 xERA, a .257 xBA, and a 42.8 percent hard-hit rate — forecast a serious second-half regression. With a compromised bullpen, Miami will hope the dam can hold for another start.
New York Mets
The Mets can’t catch a break. Right when the offense was starting to turn around — ranking 13th in wRC+ and wOBA since the All-Star break — superstar slugger Juan Soto landed on the 10-day IL with another calf strain. The Amazins, who have been anything but in 2026, are staked to the fourth-worst record in baseball and find themselves a whopping 10.5 games out of a Wild Card spot.
Even so, New York’s pitching staff has quietly become one of the hottest in the sport. Backed by a lights-out bullpen, the team leads MLB in ERA (2.84) since the beginning of the second half.
A key factor in that success has been young southpaw Zac Thornton. The Mets’ No. 12 prospect, 24, has posted an incredible 2.43 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in his first five MLB starts (29.2 IP). However, Thornton has seemingly benefitted from some, let’s say, beginner’s luck, also posting a 4.55 xERA, a .265 xBA, and a 44.4 percent hard-hit rate. He’ll aim to fend off a seemingly inevitable regression once again on Saturday.
Marlins vs. Mets Pick, Best Bet
Despite their slow start to the second half, the Marlins remain a much more formidable team than the Mets — especially without Juan Soto. With both Tyler Phillips and Zac Thornton facing potential declines, Miami’s superior offense should be the one to capitalize. With plus odds, the Marlins offer tantalizing value to upset the lowly Mets in Flushing.