The race for St. Petersburg Mayor is officially a two-person contest.
For second place.
That’s the real story of the latest St. Pete Polls survey conducted for Florida Politics. On top of previous polling, it establishes that former Gov. Charlie Crist will be one of the two candidates advancing to the General Election. Crist leads the six-way field with 34% support, with incumbent Ken Welch at 19% and City Council Member Brandi Gabbard at 15%. No one else cracks double digits.
But for the first time, a poll shows Gabbard has a path to victory.
The poll also shows the damage done to Welch runs all the way down to his foundation. For the second poll in a row, more than 80% of the city prefers someone else as Mayor. That is a damning indictment of an incumbent.
Given this framework, I can now see the logic of Welch’s strategy to incessantly attack Crist in the mailbox, and of his decision to go straight to camera and attack not Crist, not Gabbard, but me.
Welch’s strategy to date has been to keep Crist from achieving escape velocity and breaking through the 50% threshold that would end this election in August. I assume Welch figures a miracle or two (or three) will occur in the General Election if he finishes second. I assume he thinks that just making it to the General Election keeps him in play.
And, technically, it does. But if he comes out of the Primary a dead man walking, he will lose. It’s just a matter of when. As previously reported, Welch’s fundraising has literally dried up; he raised no money to his political committee during the latest reporting period.
But if there’s little logic left in attacking Crist, there is some soundness to Welch making an issue of me, especially in the vehicle he chose, a direct-to-Facebook video. It’s an attempt to portray Welch as the victim and to rally his base. I think his math says that if he can rally that base, it will be enough to carry him into the General Election. He’s probably not wrong.
Still, with just over two weeks until the election and early voting starting Aug. 8, Welch has to recalibrate. Forget about trying to stop Crist; focus on finishing ahead of Gabbard.
The most interesting aspect of this survey, and of previous St. Pete Polls surveys that use this tool, is the questioning of those who say they’ve already voted. I have found that, historically, this is the most accurate slice of the polling.
People might say they’re going to vote and then not show up. They might not want to tell you who they plan to support because they’re still undecided. But they are not going to lie about something they’ve already done.
That’s why the reporting about this poll is, quote, shocking. Crist’s 51% support among those who have already voted is eye-popping — although it should come with a few caveats, and I’ll get to those.
The other shocker is that Welch is not even in second place with this cohort; Gabbard leads him there, roughly 15% to 12%.
But let’s go beyond the shock and break down the poll, giving each candidate one nugget to chew on. Here are six things I think I think about the latest poll of the St. Pete mayoral race.
— There’s not much for Kevin Batdorf to hang his hat on inside this poll, where he sits at 3%. That’s to be expected, but it’s probably disappointing for him.
Batdorf is an affable candidate who speaks intelligently about the issues, as he did last week when he called Welch’s pricing of the Historic Gas Plant District a “dereliction of duty.” Batdorf pointed to two May appraisals valuing the Tropicana Field property at $380 million to $390 million against The Burg Bid’s $275 million cash price and calling for independent consultants to determine the site’s highest and best use.
But Batdorf is just not moving in the polls, and that has to be a cautionary tale for everyone who wants to run for office without ever having worked in politics. Batdorf calls himself the “unpolitician,” and that’s cute. But politics requires money, of course, and it also requires a broad network of supporters and volunteers. You can’t run for Mayor of St. Petersburg and expect to get beyond the margin of error with a campaign built on straight-to-camera social media videos.
Batdorf has a future, and a role, in this city. His experience with the response to the hurricanes gives him expert-level positioning, and whoever is the next Mayor should find at least an advisory role for him in their administration.
— No one, other than Welch himself, is doing more damage to Welch than Maria Scruggs. At 4% of the already-voted cohort, Scruggs is running a full third as strong as the incumbent. And she’s pulling about 10% of the Black vote, which is what’s keeping Welch from getting more than 50% of the Black vote.
I don’t see how Welch gets to the second round with less than 70% of the Black vote. Yes, there’s a big pool of undecided Black voters, but my instincts tell me those votes are simply going to melt away rather than show up. I don’t know what’s out there to motivate Black voters to head to the polls — they’re not turning out en masse for David Jolly — and Welch barely has the money to keep the lights on, much less fund a full get-out-the-vote operation.
We’ll see in the Monday or Tuesday numbers after next Sunday, when Souls to the Polls is supposed to occur. But right now, Scruggs is overperforming.
— I actually have a lot of thoughts about Jim Large‘s numbers. It was brought to my attention by a prominent local Republican that Large’s base — Republican voters — is the group least likely to respond to this kind of poll. I kind of believe that. So Large is probably underperforming in this survey and will do better on Election Day.
In fact, the internals back this up. Large is at just 6% among those who have already voted but ticks up to 9% among those who plan to vote. That’s exactly the pattern you’d expect now that Republicans vote near or on Election Day rather than by mail, a trend that has only increased under President Donald Trump, who repeatedly questions the security of vote-by-mail.
So I still think Large gets into the low teens. If there’s any get-out-the-vote operation in this Primary, it will be because of Byron Donalds and the other Republican gubernatorial candidates.
But the idea that Large finishes second, which the Chris Latvalas of the world will tell you is going to happen? I just don’t think it’s there. Not unless he goes into his firefighter pension and writes his campaign a personal check for $100,000.
— So who do I go to next, Welch or Gabbard? If you haven’t noticed, I’m ranking these candidates in order of where I think they’ll finish, and as of today (and I reserve the right to revise based on polling and additional developments), I think Gabbard comes up just short.
And it’s not because of any number in this poll. It’s because of the numbers on the campaign finance reports. She raised zero dollars to her political committee during the latest reporting period, and $1,000 to her campaign account.
Her campaign is supposed to be built on small-dollar donations, but those are likely too small to make it to November.
Supporters can spar back and forth online, as I have with Gabbard’s and Welch’s people this past week, as much as they want. But the voters of west St. Petersburg and the storm-damaged neighborhoods in the northeast part of town aren’t paying attention to any of that, and they probably haven’t heard from Gabbard with paid media at all. If that continues, I just don’t see how she gets past Welch.
Now, it should be reported that the Realtors — whether Florida Realtors or the local Realtor organizations — have mailed at least three times for Gabbard. I think the Realtors are trying to play under the radar and not antagonize Welch or Crist, but their efforts in the mailbox are no longer subtle.
Is it enough to carry Gabbard? I don’t know. Another $100,000 in mail might be enough to get her past Welch, while also pissing off Crist’s team. It will be interesting to see what Andy Scaglione and the Realtors decide to do.
— As of this morning, I still think Welch gets there. Especially when 21% of those who plan to vote are still with him. He has a slightly higher ceiling than Gabbard, he is better funded, and he is rallying his base.
There are also a few other variables I won’t go into here, because I don’t want to encourage bad actors to get involved. But Welch could be “saved” if certain people wanted. I’ll leave it at that.
The major decision Welch faces is whether to take a shot or two at Gabbard, or continue going after Crist. I don’t know that he has the wherewithal to go after Gabbard. Has he done an oppo file? Does he know where he can draw a distinction between himself and a Council member who has voted in lockstep with his administration? I don’t know that it gets there.
But continuing to scrap with Crist is just pushing people to Gabbard, rather than peeling them off Crist and sending them to Welch.
The other damaging number for Welch has to be the head-to-head against Crist, who leads that hypothetical matchup 45% to 30%. Even if Welch holds off Gabbard, he faces an epic loss in the General Election, probably worse than how badly Bill Foster lost to Rick Kriseman. Crist could win that election in the mailbox. But that’s neither here nor there; a lot can change in September and October. Welch just has to focus on the next two weeks.
— As for Crist, I’ve basically buried the lede of this column. The chatter around town, and close to Crist, is whether he should “go for it” and try to win this election outright in August.
Rick Baker tried this in 2017 and came up narrowly short. And in coming up short, a deflation occurred that shifted the momentum of that race to Kriseman, who went on to narrowly win re-election. I don’t think that’s the case here. Baker started with a sizable lead that Kriseman steadily chipped into. Crist started as the underdog to an incumbent, steadily overcame Welch in the polls, and has now blown past him.
Folks see the 51%-of-already-voted statistic and believe Crist can win outright in two weeks. Let me give you the math I see and why, right now, that’s not what would happen.
Crist is getting 51% of the roughly 20% who say they’ve already voted. That gives him about 10% of the overall electorate. He’s getting 31% of the remaining 80% who say they plan to vote. That gives him another 24%. What’s left are the undecideds, about 18% of those who plan to vote.
I think Crist picks up a sizable chunk of them, as he has in previous polls; one survey had him breaking 2 or 3 of every 5 undecided voters. But I don’t know that holds with this particular undecided cohort. I think some of them are Large voters who don’t want to say who they’re supporting. And I think some are Black voters who have not yet come home to Welch — but who, if they vote, probably will.
So: 10 plus 24 plus, let’s say, 8 gets you to 42% of the election. Obviously not enough to win outright.
But it would be a historic showing for someone who has never run for Mayor before, especially in a six-way field, and it would set Crist up for a get-on-the-bandwagon-now victory lap in September and October. The race would not be over, though.
Here’s how Crist could get there, and we’ll only know after another week of voting by mail. If Crist continues at this pace, picking up 50% of the already-voted cohort, and that cohort suddenly becomes 30% or 40% of the electorate, well, that’s a lot of banked votes.
The story of Florida’s Primaries will be turnout — and no, I’m not trying to be Susan MacManus, telling you the team with the most points wins. The story is how depressed turnout will be. There is just no top-of-the-ballot spending going on, and the smart folks I talk to are revising their turnout models downward. At one point, the thinking was that 51,000 voters would take part in the St. Petersburg mayoral race. As of the most recent numbers, turnout across Pinellas County, which includes more than just St. Pete, sat at just over 6%.
The people who say they plan to vote, and the undecideds? They just might melt away. And in a shrinking electorate, banked votes like Crist’s — and, to a lesser extent, Gabbard’s — become much more valuable.
Crist also has a significant amount of money left. I’m not privy to what’s earmarked or budgeted, but going just by the campaign finance reports, there’s well north of $800,000 left in his committee’s account. And the pace of his fundraising, while not what it was when he was picking low-hanging fruit at the start, is still impressive. Raising $50,000 or $60,000 a week for a St. Petersburg mayoral race is running through the tape.
Remember, too, that this poll was taken after a barrage of negative mail hit St. Pete mailboxes, and before Tampa Bay Times Viewpoints Editor Graham Brink recommended Crist in the race. There’s actually room for Crist to improve his position as voting continues.
So does Crist go for it? The answer is probably yes. There’s no downside to trying to communicate with as many voters as possible.
I’ve been on the ground as a volunteer with Crist this past weekend, and, no B.S., the response to him has been reassuring. I stood on the corner of Fourth Street and 22nd Avenue and waved signs for him Friday evening. I’ve waved signs for Charlie in campaigns past, and it was not always the easiest volunteer assignment; there would be as many middle fingers as honked horns.
Not this past Friday. I counted only two people who shook their heads no, while the horns blared for more than an hour. People were pulling into the Wawa on Fourth Street, getting out of their cars, and coming over to take pictures with Crist. One person came over just to meet Charlie, then donated $1,000 to his campaign on Saturday morning.
When Gabbard and Welch are raising zero dollars to their political committees, the ability to raise a thousand bucks just by waving signs outside a gas station tells you about the reservoir of goodwill there is for Crist.
It’s almost crazy, or at least unserious, to lean on anecdotal evidence like honking horns while trying to break down the crosstabs of a poll. But the statistics have to go along with the anecdotal. Polling has to be matched by what the field team is hearing.
And so, as of right now, here is where I think the St. Pete mayoral race stands: Crist will finish the Primary with a lead of at least 8 points, while Gabbard and Welch are locked in a knife fight to see who continues on.
Welch has a well-defined base, and he needs to turn it out. That’s why he was walking the Palmetto Park neighborhood and handing out backpacks at a back-to-school event. Gabbard needs to convince enough moderate urban liberals that Welch’s time is done and that she is the best chance of stopping Crist.
Buckle up. It’s going to be an exciting and interesting two weeks.
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Ed. note: Michelle Todd Schorsch is the Chair of St. Pete Shines, a political committee backing Crist for St. Petersburg Mayor. Todd Schorsch is married to Peter Schorsch, the publisher of Florida Politics. This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review were performed by Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team.