Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies prediction, pick for Monday 8/3/26

Entering Monday’s trade deadline, the American League is as wide-open as it’s ever been. Because the AL Central and AL West have both been pretty weak this season, the three best teams are all in the AL East, and the winner of that division has a great chance of setting up an easy path through the playoffs. It benefits every team in the division to go all-in.

The Tampa Bay Rays have made two significant moves at the deadline, dealing for starting pitcher Freddy Peralta and catcher Liam Hicks. They’ll have a chance to open up a wider division lead with a three-game road set against the awful Colorado Rockies, which begins tonight.

First pitch in the series opener is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET tonight. Ian Seymour will take the mound for Tampa Bay, and Michael Lorenzen will start for Colorado.

Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies Best Bets

Over 11.5 (-103): Coors Field’s hitter-friendly environment can be overstated slightly by DraftKings Sportsbook, but with Lorenzen on the mound, the over should hit. Seven of his last eight home starts have featured at least 12 total runs.

Chandler Simpson 2+ Hits + Stolen Bases (-117): Simpson has no power and doesn’t walk frequently, but he can certainly hit for average, hitting north of .400 across his last 15 games. He also ranks in the 96th percentile in sprint speed, and while Lorenzen has actually been above-average in the running game, he mostly throws changeups, and Simpson doesn’t need much of a delay to steal a base.

Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies prediction, preview

The Rays missed the playoffs in each of the past two seasons to end a five-season postseason streak, but after a 22-4 stretch early in the season, they’ve been firmly in position to return to the tournament all season. They’ve had at least a 50% chance to make the playoffs every day since the start of May, and despite a mediocre 9-8 record since the All-Star break, they also have a 50% chance to win the division. Though Tampa Bay has slumped a little bit since the All-Star break, falling to 18th in OPS across that span, it still has the 10th-best offense for the season as a whole and has a top MVP candidate in Junior Caminero to go along with strong seasons from Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Díaz. Whenever he arrives, Hicks should be an upgrade over light-hitting Nick Fortes. Additionally, while the Rays have had the fifth-best rotation this season, Peralta’s arrival should help offset any time Shane McClanahan might miss, and it’s possible that they could also drop one of their starters back to aid the league’s 15th-ranked bullpen. Griffin Jax has been a starter this season, but he has plenty of experience coming out of the bullpen and could do so again.

The Rockies, too, have made progress this season by their own standards. After finishing each of the past three seasons with at least 100 losses, Colorado is on pace to go 65-97 this season. The Rockies have genuinely made some strides offensively, as they rank fifth in OPS. Hunter Goodman leads the NL in home runs and Cole Carrigg has had an incredible first 44 career games. The issue, though, is that Colorado’s pitching has been just as bad as ever, as it dead last by a wide margin in rotation ERA and third-to-last in bullpen ERA. The Rockies attempted to address their pitching in the offseason, signing Lorenzen, Tomoyuki Sugano, and José Quintana, but only Sugano has been effective. Colorado also traded one of its more effective relievers, Seth Halvorsen, and it’s still conceivable that either Brennan Bernardino or Antonio Senzatela gets moved within the next two hours.

Seymour has predominantly been a reliever this season, as 29 of his 36 appearances this season have come out of the bullpen, but he should be relatively stretched out. Over his last 10 outings, he’s averaged 4.7 innings per appearance, pitching to a respectable 3.80 ERA across that span. He should be pretty effective; he has a 75th-percentile expected ERA and an 86th-percentile batting average. Seymour has also been excellent at inducing chases and whiffs, exacerbating some of the Rockies’ biggest weaknesses. The main issue is that Seymour has been prone to some hard contact, ranking in just the 18th percentile in barrel rate and the sixth percentile in ground ball rate, a terrible combination at high-altitude Coors Field, even against a team that has hit barrels at among the league’s lowest rates. He’s also been significantly worse on the road, pitching to a 5.63 ERA in his 16 road appearances this season, and Colorado has expectedly been far better at home.

Seymour should still have a significant advantage in the starting pitching matchup over Lorenzen, who’s had a horrendous season. He’s given up 149 hits, which leads all of baseball, pitching to just a 6.54 ERA across 23 appearances (22 starts). It’s not like he’s even had highs; his only appearance without an earned run was a one-inning cameo in relief. Unsurprisingly, advanced numbers aren’t kind to the 34-year-old, as he ranks in the sixth percentile in expected ERA, the third percentile in expected batting average, and the first percentile in pitching run value. He also ranks in the bottom decile in average exit velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, hard-hit rate, and extension, which could definitely be an issue against a Tampa Bay team with the best contact skills in the league. While Lorenzen has done a decent job inducing grounders and the Rays hit them at the league’s third-highest frequency, it’s hard to trust a guy who’s recorded an 8.34 ERA across 10 home starts, even though Tampa Bay has been significantly worse on the road.

Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies pick, best bet

Best Bet: Over 11.5 (-103)

If it were one of the Rockies’ other pitchers, I might’ve considered going with the under, but 12 of Lorenzen’s 23 games have included at least 12 runs, including five of his last seven and seven of his last eight home starts. It’s not like Seymour will entirely shut Colorado’s offense down.

Strong Lean: Chandler Simpson 2+ Hits + Stolen Bases (-117)

Simpson has been on a tear since the All-Star break, hitting .404 and stealing five bases, and he’s had at least two H/SB in 10 of those 15 games. Lorenzen has allowed an eye-popping .344 batting average to lefties this season.

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