U.S. Rep. Cory Mills, facing myriad negative headlines and an ongoing House Ethics Committee investigation, isn’t doing as great in the polls as a GOP incumbent in a red District should expect.

A new poll from St. Pete Polls taken this week found Mills leading with 27% support in a four-way GOP Primary among respondents who say they plan to vote. Mills’ support among those who have already voted is at 46%, though that represents just 12% of respondents. Overall, Mills’ support sits at 29.5%.

Ryan Elijah, Mills’ top opposition in the race, is at 14% overall.

While that’s a commanding more than 15-percentage-point lead, it’s not as wide a margin as incumbents typically enjoy. That suggests that in the final days of campaigning, there could be a lane for Elijah to take. There are plenty of votes still left to grab, with 41% of all likely voters still undecided. Among those who definitively say they plan to vote, that number jumps to 45%.

No other candidate in the GOP Primary reached double-digit support in the poll, making this likely a showdown between Elijah and Mills.

Demographic breakdowns of the poll suggest Elijah may still find a lane among younger voters, ages 18-29. There, more than 73% are undecided. Even among those age 30-49, a full 60% remain undecided. While not as pronounced, men are still more on the fence in the race than women, 48% saying they are still undecided compared to just 34% of women.

The writing has been on the wall for a while, with Elijah claiming strong institutional support in his bid against Mills. Last month, he earned an endorsement from Volusia County Sheriff Mike Chitwood, building on support he had already received from state Sen. Tom Wright, whose District covers Brevard and Volusia counties. Seminole County Sheriff Dennis Lemma is also supporting Elijah.

Earlier Wednesday, Republican U.S. Reps. Mike Haridopolos and Anna Paulina Luna joined the opposition to Mills and backed Elijah, giving a sharp rebuke to the incumbent from his colleagues in the House.

While Mills still maintains many key endorsements, including from U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, the Volusia County GOP, CPAC and others, Elijah has the cash to get his message out, while Mills’ spending ability in the final Primary push is much more limited.

Mills has just $81,000 on hand, while Elijah maintains nearly $268,000, as of the most recent reports covering financial activity through June 30. Over the most recent three-month reporting period, Mills raised less than $60,000. Elijah brought in nearly $168,000.

The slowdown in support is likely driven by controversies surrounding Mills in recent months.

He is the subject of a House Ethics Committee investigation and has faced domestic abuse accusations from two former romantic partners, along with allegations he profited from defense contracts while serving in Congress.

Sarah Raviani, a live-in girlfriend in Washington, called the police in February 2025 and alleged Mills had assaulted her in their apartment, but she later recanted her accusations. Later, Lindsey Langston, who lived with Mills in his Florida home, told police Mills threatened the release of intimate pictures and videos and produced text messages to that effect, prompting a Judge in October 2025 to issue a restraining order forbidding online communications.

Neither Langston nor Raviani ever worked for Mills or for Congress, and neither accused him of sexual assault. Regarding the Raviani incident, which set off a tidal wave of bad press for Mills last year, he noted that the Metropolitan Police never arrested him.

Still, the bad press seems to be following Mills, as scandals nationwide threaten to take down, or have already taken down, political candidates and elected officials.

To be clear, the St. Pete Polls survey has Mills as the clear front-runner in the Aug. 18 GOP Primary, but it also shows a glimmer of hope for Elijah, who has the cash to capitalize.

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Jacob Ogles and Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics contributed to this report.