With early voting set to begin Saturday, voter turnout in Pinellas County sits at just under 9%, with ballots cast by Democrats and Republicans split nearly even at just over 21,000 each.

No-party voters account for another more than 9,000 ballots cast as of Friday morning at 9 a.m.

It’s hard to say whether that turnout, which includes only vote-by-mail ballots returned, puts the county on pace to match turnout in the Midterm Primary four years ago, which was just under 32%.

But details about where ballots are being returned at higher ratios and an analysis of what’s on the ballot offer at least some fodder for the contentious St. Petersburg mayoral election, which features six candidates but will likely come down to just three by the time all ballots are counted on Aug. 18.

First, the overall turnout number of less than 9% reflects voting across the whole county, not just the city of St. Pete. Still, the near 50/50 split between GOP ballots returned and those from Democratic voters spells potential bad news for Democrats.

Fueled by unsubstantiated claims from President Donald Trump of rampant voter fraud, Republicans are largely avoiding vote-by-mail in favor of in-person voting, either early or on Election Day. With that in mind, Democrats should be hoping to run up a turnout advantage in vote-by-mail.

The split suggests Republicans are either bucking the vote-by-mail-weary trend or that Democrats are not turning out at numbers needed to accomplish upsets across the ballot.

Translated to the St. Pete Mayor’s race — which is nonpartisan but features candidates whose political affiliations are known — candidates relying on support from Democrats might not be getting the turnout they need. Both incumbent Mayor Ken Welch and sitting City Council Member Brandi Gabbard are Democrats who have polled better within their own party than outside it.

Former Gov. Charlie Crist, who also previously served as a U.S. Representative, state Attorney General, Education Commissioner and state Senator, is also a Democrat, but he’s enjoying bipartisan support and has polled well among Republicans.

In fact, the most recent poll of the race showed Crist performing better among Republicans than the actual Republicans in the race, with Crist earning 32% support among GOP voters in a late July St. Pete Polls survey. Former Fire Chief Jim Large polled at 23% support among his own party, while Republican businessman Kevin Batdorf polled at just 4% support.

There’s also geography. At less than 9% turnout so far, a lot can change in terms of where people are voting at the highest rates. But as of Friday, some South St. Pete precincts were posting much higher turnout than at other places throughout the city. For example, precincts housed at Lake Vista and Bay Vista recreation centers, and at Pinellas Community Church, have turnout as high as 14%.

Because South St. Pete is home to a significant portion of the city’s Black community, that could signal that Black voters are turning out early. If that’s the case, it could be good news for Welch.

As of the most recent late July poll, Welch was drawing 49% support among Black voters. But at 24% support, Crist is also enjoying moderate support among Black voters, and his support has been on the rise, while Welch’s has been on the decline.

Welch is the city’s first African American Mayor.

There’s also the entire ballot to consider. Republicans don’t have a lot to turn out for on this year’s Primary ballot, but GOP voters are known for showing up anyway.

Still, the Governor’s race is practically a lock with Byron Donalds; the U.S. Senate race heavily favors Ashley Moody; and races for Chief Financial Officer and Agriculture Commissioner also are not competitive, with incumbents Blaise Ingoglia and Wilton Simpson expected to sail to easy victory in their respective contests.

Locally, there are a few open Democratic Primaries that Republican voters can weigh in on, but they’re not turnout-boosting races, with Michele Rayner and Fentrice Driskell facing off for a winner-take-all Primary in Senate District 16 and former state Rep. Wengay Newton facing political newcomer Kyandra Darling in House District 62.

Pinellas County Commissioner Dave Eggers also faces a non-serious challenge in the GOP Primary, which is also open to Democrats since only Republicans are running.

On the Democratic side, the race for U.S. Senate between Alex Vindman, the more moderate candidate and the favorite of many party leaders, and Angie Nixon, the progressive firebrand drawing attention from the party’s left flank, could attract some Democratic voters to the ballot box.

Democrats in some parts of St. Pete also have a competitive Primary for Florida’s 13th Congressional District, between Leela Gray, the front-runner, and John Liccione and Brandt Robinson. Those not in CD 13 will see five candidates on the ballot for Florida’s 16th Congressional District, which spans Manatee County and parts of Pinellas, Sarasota, Polk, Hardee and DeSoto counties. Both congressional districts are on the ballot with new boundaries after redistricting this year.

Overall, turnout so far hasn’t produced any smoking guns to suggest possible outcomes in the Mayor’s race, but musing about the data available so far certainly offers some interesting points to consider.

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Ed. note: Michelle Todd Schorsch is the Chair of St. Pete Shines, a political committee backing Crist for St. Petersburg Mayor. Todd Schorsch is married to Peter Schorsch, the publisher of Florida Politics.