Closing down tonight’s 15-game MLB slate, the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Seattle Mariners. These American League opponents opened up the series yesterday, which resulted in a 2-1 victory by the Rays. Griffin Jax and George Kirby will take the ball for their respective teams tonight, as the Mariners attempt to even things up.

Looking at the odds, the Mariners enter as -112 favorites on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Rays hold +105 odds of winning outright, hold +173 odds on the -1.5 run line, and the run total is set at seven.

Rays at Mariners prediction, preview

The Tampa Bay Rays enter with a 69-46 record on the season, which leads all American League teams and is the third-best rate in all of baseball. They enter this matchup on a four-game winning streak, and have won 13 of their past 17. On the season, the Rays have gone 66-49 to the run line, and the run total is 50-60-5 to the over/under.

Griffin Jax will take the mound for the Rays, marking his 19th start and 30th appearance of the season. The 31-year-old enters with a 6-9 record, a 3.63 ERA, a 1.211 WHIP, 14 home runs allowed, and 100 strikeouts tallied across 91.2 innings pitched. Jax is posting a 2.97 ERA across his past 11 outings, and has finished three consecutive starts with just one earned run allowed. He has faced off against this Mariners roster in 43 at-bats in his career, allowing 15 hits and tallying 12 strikeouts in these opportunities.

The Rays are slashing a collective .258/.329/.403 with a .732 OPS on the season. Tampa Bay ranks eighth in the MLB in hits, 17th in runs, 23rd in home runs, and has the fewest strikeouts in the league. Yandy Diaz leads the team with 127 hits, along with 15 home runs and 64 RBI. Junior Caminero is not far behind, with 123 hits, a team-high 30 home runs, and 71 RBI. Jonathan Aranda and Chandler Simpson each have tallied 118+ hits of their own, with Aranda adding 15 home runs and a team-high 72 RBI. Cedrick Mullins, Nick Fortes, and Taylor Walls also play notable roles.

The Seattle Mariners hold a 56-61 record on the year, which slots them in third place in the American League West. They are coming off back-to-back losses and have dropped six of their past nine games. On the season, the Mariners have gone 44-73 to the run line, and the run total is 58-52-7 to the over/under.

George Kirby will be making his 22nd start of the season for Seattle. The former All-Star enters with an 8-9 record, a 3.76 ERA, a 1.276 WHIP, 26 home runs allowed, and 110 strikeouts tallied across his 127.0 innings pitched. He is coming off a seven-inning scoreless outing in his previous start and has escaped without allowing a run in two of his last three outings. Kirby has faced off with this Rays’ lineup in 50 at-bats in his career. He has limited Tampa Bay to 12 hits and tallied 12 strikeouts in these matchups.

At the plate, the Mariners are slashing a collective .229/.309/.375 with a .684 OPS. They rank 29th in hits, 29th in total runs, 15th in home runs, and they rank 12th in the league in total strikeouts. Randy Arozarena leads the team with 113 hits, 14 home runs, and 49 RBI. Cole Young adds 112 hits, 14 home runs, and 51 RBI, while Josh Naylor and Julio Rodriguez have also tallied 108+ hits. Rodriguez is tied with Dominic Canzone for a team-high 18 home runs. Cal Raleigh, Colt Emerson, and Victor Robles also play key roles on the team.

Rays at Mariners pick, best bet

It feels like the Rays continue to fly under the radar a bit on the season for how good they have been. They have a 14-game advantage over this Mariners team, and are in better form of late. Seattle is 8-12 since the All-Star break, with just one win against a team with a winning record since this point.

This is a strong pitching matchup, and my lean would be toward the under. Both Griffin Jax and George Kirby have had some impressive flashes this year. But Tampa Bay has a much more reliable approach at the plate. The Rays rank eighth in the league in hits while striking out at a lesser rate than any team in the league, compared to the Mariners ranking 29th in hits and striking out at the 12th-highest rate. Tampa Bay has also had no trouble beating up on inferior opponents this season, going 54-24 against teams with losing records. They also are 28-28 straight up on the road this year.

The Rays have won three straight games as underdogs. They are 23-12 to the run line when playing as underdogs this season and 11-7 as an away underdog. In contrast, the Mariners have lost each of their last six night games against AL East opponents and failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Saturday night games against AL opponents. Tampa Bay does not get the level of respect their production has earned this year, and this is another great chance for them to beat up on an inferior opponent. Expect the Rays’ contact-first approach to have success against Kirby and for Tampa Bay to pull off the upset on the road tonight.

Best bet: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (+105)

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