Week 10 of the 2025 NFL season is light on intrigue… until you get to the primetime games.
That’s where an uneven Pittsburgh Steelers team will take the field backed by a sea of black and yellow despite a road game against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night. One day later, the Philadelphia Eagles look to make it four straight wins over the Green Bay Packers, including 2024’s victories that started, then ended, Jordan Love’s season.
While our crew of writers is pretty evenly split on Steelers-Chargers, there’s a round expectation Philadelphia will leave Wisconsin with all the New Glarus beer it can carry and a win that cements its place atop the NFC. The Packers have their backs against the wall after last week’s shocking loss to the Carolina Panthers. Can they respond?
Let’s take a closer look.
I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. My 2024 wasn’t as fruitful — Andrew Joseph and his 71 percent hit rate knocked me down a peg in the FTW standings.
Joining me for 2025 is a seven-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes, Jordan Tomiyama) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, who got his picks in late this week so he was reduced to the saddest possible column, Cory Woodroof and Joseph). Here are our Week 10 picks.
GameChristianCharlesMaryRaiders at BroncosBroncosBroncosBroncosFalcons at Colts*ColtsColtsColtsBills at DolphinsBillsBillsBillsBrowns at JetsBrowns?BrownsBrownsJaguars at TexansTexansJaguarsJaguarsSaints at PanthersPanthersPanthersPanthersPatriots at BuccaneersBucsPatriotsBuccaneersGiants at BearsBearsBearsBearsRavens at VikingsVikings?RavensRavensCardinals at SeahawksSeahawksSeahawksSeahawksLions at CommandersLionsLionsLionsRams at 49ersRams?RamsRamsSteelers at ChargersSteelers?ChargersSteelersEagles at PackersEagles?EaglesEaglesLast week:10-410-49-52025 record:86-47-1 (.647)89-44-1 (.669)87-46-1 (.654)
and:
GameAndrewPrinceJordanCoryRaiders at BroncosBroncosBroncosBroncosBroncosFalcons at Colts*ColtsColtsColtsColtsBills at DolphinsBillsBillsBillsBillsBrowns at JetsBrownsBrownsBrownsBrownsJaguars at TexansJaguarsJaguarsJaguarsJaguarsSaints at PanthersPanthersPanthersPanthersPanthersPatriots at BuccaneersPatriotsPatriotsPatriotsPatriotsGiants at BearsBearsBearsBearsBearsRavens at VikingsVikingsRavensRavensRavensCardinals at SeahawksSeahawksSeahawksSeahawksSeahawksLions at CommandersLionsLionsLionsLionsRams at 49ersRamsRamsRamsRamsSteelers at ChargersChargersChargersSteelersSteelersEagles at PackersPackersEaglesEaglesPackersLast week:11-38-69-59-52025 record:90-43-1 (.677)82-51-1 (.617)80-53-1 (.602)62-42-1 (.596)
Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:
I don’t know if I’d take Carolina were Spencer Rattler the starting quarterback in New Orleans. But this is Tyler Shough’s audition, and he’s begun his NFL career as the league’s worst passer through a very small sample size. He’ll get better, but not good enough to win a divisional game on the road… yet.
Or possibly ever, but that’s an entirely different conversation.
Last week: 1-02025 to date: 8-0 (1.000)Hardest favorite to back:Â Cleveland Browns (-2.5) over the New York Jets
Why I like this pick:
The Browns get a matchup with either a journeyman backup (Tyrod Taylor) or a washout reclamation project who takes entirely too many sacks (Justin Fields). The hope would be that Fields could use his legs to escape Myles Garrett and extend drives on the ground. But Cleveland’s 97 rushing yards allowed vs. opposing quarterbacks is second-lowest in the NFL. Part of that is a lineup of pocket passers on the schedule, but this defense also limited Lamar Jackson to only 13 rushing yards in their Week 2 matchup (albeit in a Ravens blowout).
Dillon Gabriel gets to face a secondary without Sauce Gardner OR Michael Carter II. Quinshon Judkins gets to run against a defensive front that no longer has Quinnen Williams up front. Even with those two in the lineup the Jets ranked 26th in expected points added (EPA) allowed. Jerry Jeudy will have the opportunity to drop passes against a secondary where Azareye’h Thomas, Malachi Moore, Jarvis Brownlee and Qwan’tez Stiggers will likely all play meaningful snaps (Stiggers’ journey to the NFL? Fascinating, by the way).
The Jets’ offense added Adonai Mitchell, who could eventually be an asset but will be reaaaal hard to trust in his first game with the team. That leaves this as a Breece Hall-Garrett Wilson affair against a bruising pass rush and rising linebacker corps. This isn’t a showdown with a Bengals defense uninterested in tackling; Cleveland is going to turn this into a rock fight. The last time New York saw a dominant pass rush it ended the game with -10 net passing yards.
Why I don’t like this pick:
Dillon Gabriel is the league’s worst quarterback to have started more than one game. His -6.2 completion percentage over expected (CPOE) is 35th among 35 qualified passers and means even if his wideouts get open he could still wind up blanking them.
Drake Maye ran for 50 yards on a day where Garrett had five sacks and the Browns still lost. The Jets kept their offense intact (and added a 2024 second round wideout) and racked up 500-plus yards in their last game. New York is also at home and coming off a bye. Its players have been challenged; management showed them exactly what they think of this team’s chances by trading away its biggest stars. Week 10 could be that dead cat bounce moment, especially against an underwhelming opponent at home.
Last week: 1-02025 to date: 4-5 (.444)Upset pick of the week:Â Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) over the Green Bay Packers
There are a couple road underdogs I like this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers have a solid chance to abuse the tackle-less Chargers in Los Angeles after getting their defense back on track against what had been the hottest team in the NFL. And I’m also on the Minnesota Vikings at home, though for reasons I don’t quite understand or have the ability to articulate. So, let’s dive into a potential NFC title game preview.
Why I like this pick:
Time and again, the Packers have proven unable to stop the run in big moments against even bad teams — it’s been central to their postseason losses the past few years as well as their two defeats in 2025. And, whoops, here comes Saquon Barkley coming off a bye with a team that won last year’s Super Bowl running the ball more than anyone in the NFL.
The Packers are capable of dizzying highs and devastating lows and you’re never sure what you’re going to get. The receiving corps has been unable to stay healthy; Christian Watson’s return gave way to Tucker Kraft’s torn ACL, which is a net loss for a team already without Jayden Reed. While Philly’s secondary is a concern — you don’t trade for a faded Jaire Alexander if things are going great — it has the talent to clamp down on Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden and force Jordan Love to exhaust his well of playmakers to keep drives alive.
Jump-starting Barkley in Week 8 seemed like a return to the Eagles’ 2024 glory. While the All-Pro tailback left that game early, he also told media he would have re-entered the lineup had the game not been well in hand in the fourth quarter. He’s had two weeks to rest and recover and plan for Monday night at Lambeau Field. This feels like a game destined to be decided by a clock-killing third-and-short pickup late in the fourth quarter.
But if not, Jalen Hurts’ 7.6 CPOE is the best of his career and third-best in the NFL this season. Green Bay’s cornerbacks have been vulnerable and now have to contend with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. There are more ways for Philadelphia to win this game than Green Bay.
Why I don’t like this pick:
When the Packers are clicking, they’re the best team in the NFL. They’re at home in primetime, where they’re 4-1 with Jordan Love at quarterback. They’re facing a fairly average Eagles defense that got better at the trade deadline but will be breaking multiple new players into the lineup.
Hurts’ pressure rate is the highest its been since his rookie season. Green Bay only has the league’s 20th-best pressure rate this fall, but also its 30th-ranked blitz rate. The Micah Parsons gambit is working, which means more defensive help in the secondary and fewer open targets.
Last week: 1-02025 to date: 5-3 (.625)