With John Dailey declining to seek re-election, 4 candidates face off to become Tallahassee’s next Mayor

If polling and prediction markets hold any weight, the likeliest outcome in Tuesday’s open Tallahassee Mayoral race appears to be a November runoff between former Sen. Loranne Ausley and City Commissioner Jeremy Matlow.

Civil rights lawyer Daryl Parks has kept pace in the spending race and is looking to defy the polls by claiming one of the top two spots. IT entrepreneur Michael Foust, the lone Republican in the race, remains a distant fourth.

That is the forecast presented by the most recent survey, which found Ausley leading the pack in July with 29% support, Matlow close behind her at 24%, Parks taking 14% and Foust registering at 3%. Critically, however, the largest bloc of voters — 31% — was undecided.

Bettors on Polymarket, where over $120,000 has been wagered on the race, give Ausley a 61% chance of victory and Matlow 35%, while Parks’ odds are estimated at 6%.

The crowded field of candidates quickly formed when incumbent Mayor John Dailey announced last August he would not seek a third term. In 2022, Dailey narrowly survived a bruising challenge from his left by County Commissioner Kristin Dozier, trailing in first-round voting before prevailing in a runoff.

Dailey and Dozier may not be on the ballot this year, but a similar ideological divide is playing out between Ausley and Matlow. 

Like Dailey, Ausley is viewed as the more pro-business candidate, which is reflected in her fundraising. Matlow has staked out the progressive lane during his time on the commission, having repeatedly sparred with Dailey over the sale of Tallahassee Memorial Hospital, a stadium incentives package and other actions he has criticized as favoring powerful interests over taxpayers and lacking transparency. 

The poll that was released in July corroborates that dynamic. It showed Ausley performing best with Republicans and older voters, while Matlow narrowly led Ausley among Democrats.

Ausley is a lawyer who served in the House and Senate before she was defeated in 2022 by Sen. Corey Simon, whom Parks unsuccessfully challenged in 2024. She has touted the funding she brought back to Tallahassee during her 14 years in the Legislature, including money for Cascades Park and broadband internet.

One of Ausley’s slogans is “progress without division,” perhaps referencing the City Commission’s prominent 3-2 split on several controversial votes in recent years, which has pitted Dailey and Matlow squarely against each other. 

Fundraising has been a strength for Ausley, whose campaign account raised $345,000 and spent $327,000 through the end of July, more than any rival. Her endorsements include the pro-choice Ruth’s List Florida and the Big Bend Police Benevolent Association.

Meanwhile, Matlow is well-positioned in the race despite lagging behind both Ausley and Parks financially. He raised $193,000 and spent $140,000.

Matlow is the founder of several local businesses, including Gaines Street Pies, Warhorse, The Wilbury and Updraft. He has attacked Tallahassee’s “insiders, establishment interests and backroom deals,” which he says have created a “stagnant and visionless” city.

Issues central to Matlow’s platform include growing household income, stable neighborhoods and protecting the environment.

Numerous progressive groups have endorsed Matlow, as have the Big Bend AFL-CIO, the Leon County Classroom Teachers Association and City Commissioner Jacqueline Porter, who has joined Matlow on the losing end of the Commission’s frequent 3-2 divide. Other elected officials backing Matlow include County Commissioners David O’Keefe and Bill Proctor, four former City and County Commissioners and progressive firebrand Angie Nixon.

The ideological lane Matlow is running in is less crowded due to the City Commission’s decision last September to bar Camron “Justice” Cooper from running because he did not meet the residency criteria.

Meanwhile, Parks has the strongest support among Black voters, which make up a third of Tallahassee’s electorate. He has recounted working his way through college at Florida A&M University as a dishwasher and fast‑food worker and highlighted the law firm he founded with civil rights attorney Ben Crump, who has gained national attention representing victims in police brutality cases.

Parks is campaigning on public safety, reducing Tallahassee’s 23% poverty rate and improving healthcare outcomes. His fundraising has nearly kept pace with Ausley, with his campaign reporting $319,000 in contributions and $285,000 in expenditures. 

The Parks and Matlow campaigns have engaged in one of the more visible spats of the campaign, which involved accusations that individuals tied to Matlow rebranded a Facebook account in a deceptive attempt to influence voters. Parks held a news conference in late July to announce the alleged tactics, which Matlow has denied.

The controversy prompted some local conservatives to endorse Parks, including former Republican County Commissioner Emanuel “Manny” Joanos.

Foust is the only Republican in the race, though available polling shows most Republicans gravitating toward other candidates, dashing his hopes of sneaking into a runoff by consolidating support among the city’s GOP minority.

A first-time candidate, Foust spent 18 years working for the state government and founded his own IT service management consulting company. He has run as a self-described moderate Republican hoping to make the city more efficient.

Fundraising was a struggle for Foust, who largely self-funded his $11,000 in campaign cash. At a candidate forum in June, he noted that he was the only non-millionaire in the race.

The Primary is Aug. 18. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, the top two will face off in the November General Election.