State Sen. Shevrin Jones has further broken away from the Democratic Primary field in Florida’s 24th Congressional District, where already-cast ballots are powering his lead, new polling shows.

Just-released results from a St. Pete Polls survey, commissioned by Florida Politics, shows Jones at 39.3% support on the eve of Election Day — better than 17 points clear of his closest competitor.

Miami-Dade County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert is in second place with 22% support, with lawyer Kendrick Meek Jr. just slightly behind him at 20.5%, a gap well inside the poll’s margin of error.

Another 18.2% of likely Democratic Primary voters remain undecided or back someone else.

The results extend a trend line running through three consecutive St. Pete Polls surveys of the race. The firm’s July survey had Gilbert on top with 27% to Jones’ 24%, Meek shy of 10% and more than a third of voters unsure. Ten days ago, Jones led 33.1% to Gilbert’s 23.4%, with Meek at 17.5%.

Since then, Jones has added roughly 6 points and Meek 3, while Gilbert’s support sank.

Jones is crushing it with early voters. Among the 46.3% of respondents who said they’ve already cast a ballot, Jones commands 47.7% to Gilbert’s 25.8% and Meek’s 21.9%, with fewer than 5% undecided.

The picture is murkier among voters who haven’t cast ballots. With them, Jones leads with 32.7%, followed by Meek at 19.3%, Gilbert at 18% and a full 30% undecided — ample room for late movement, but likely not enough to overtake Jones’ banked advantage.

St. Pete Polls surveyed 278 likely Democratic Primary voters Aug. 15-16 by phone and text, weighing the results by race, age and gender to match Democrats’ demographic composition in CD 24.

The poll carried a 5.9-percentage-point margin of error at a 95% confidence level.

Unweighted crosstabs in the poll show Jones leading across nearly every demographic slice. He holds 38.1% support among Black voters, who made up about 7 in 10 respondents, compared to 23.7% for Gilbert and 21.6% for Meek.

He also leads among White voters at 52.6% and Hispanic voters at 37%, with Gilbert running second among Hispanics at 29.6%.

Jones’ widest gender split favors men, who back him 44% to Gilbert’s 18% and Meek’s 16%. Among women, his edge narrows to 36.4%, with Gilbert at 23.9% and Meek at 23.3%.

Jones also leads every age bracket, peaking at 50.8% among voters aged 30 to 49. Gilbert performs best with the oldest voters, taking 26.5% among those 70 and up — a group that accounted for more than a third of the sample.

Seven Democrats are competing to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Frederica Wilson, who has held the seat since 2011 and has thrown her support behind Gilbert.

Former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi endorsed Meek.

Jones, meanwhile, has racked up backing from Black Men Vote PAC and U.S. Rep. Robert Garcia of California, among others.

The closing stretch has turned ugly. A series of anonymous text messages targeting Jones and Meek over their sexual orientation drew condemnation from candidates across the field, including Gilbert, who called the attack on Jones “evil.”

CD 24 spans Miami Gardens in Miami-Dade and Hollywood, Miramar and Pembroke Park in Broward. More than 68.7% of its voters supported Kamala Harris in 2024, making Tuesday’s Primary all but determinative of the November outcome.

The Primary is Tuesday, followed by the General Election on Nov. 3.