The butterfly effect: 50+ moments that built the St. Pete Mayor’s race

The slow unmaking of an incumbent.

There are moments that seem one way as they happen, and reveal a much different — or much larger — impact only later.

Think of it as the butterfly effect of politics. But instead of spanning geography, the effects span time. This year’s St. Petersburg mayoral election is a particular example of how past actions can shape future elections, and make or break political careers.

When St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch took office in early 2022, he did so as a history-making leader, the city’s first Black Mayor. He entered with a mandate, having won the 2021 General Election by about 20 percentage points. But the honeymoon ended soon enough, as a series of policy decisions and personnel snafus roiled the Mayor’s office and set the stage for a challenge from five candidates, all running to at least some degree on the need for change at City Hall.

With that in mind, here are 54 events since Welch took office that helped define the current state of the 2026 St. Pete Mayor’s race.

June 29, 2022 — Welch kills former Mayor Rick Kriseman’s Trop deal: At the time, this laid the foundation for Welch to establish a legacy-defining project. Four years later, with no deal on the table and only the memory of a failed one, that legacy is in major doubt.
Aug. 12, 2022 — Welch kills the Moffitt Cancer Center deal: Arguing the deal did not provide enough public benefit to justify the proposed public subsidy — largely over what he viewed as a lack of affordable housing — Welch spiked it to focus on bringing more affordable housing to the city. Now the decision, recast by opponents as depriving St. Pete of cancer care, is being used as a cudgel against him.
Sept. 2, 2022 — Deputy Mayor Stephanie Owens resigns: Accused of bullying by another senior staffer, Owens resigned and Welch ultimately eliminated the position. But the accusations led to someone leaking a letter from Welch’s first mayoral bid levying similar complaints against Owens. Welch’s handling of it, and his defense of Owens, led Tampa Bay Times Viewpoints Editor Graham Brink to slam that defense as “tone-deaf” this year in his endorsement of one of Welch’s challengers, former Gov. Charlie Crist.
Sept. 28, 2022 — Hurricane Ian brushes St. Pete: The city dodged a bullet. Welch, figuratively, did not. He left the Emergency Operations Center to return home to his family after the storm shifted somewhat away from the city, even as other top city staff stayed at the EOC and away from theirs. It fed a number that would haunt his reelection campaign.
Oct. 26, 2022 — Tampa Bay Times reports Welch swiped into City Hall just 34% of workdays: Using data from Welch’s digital key card to City Hall and other city facilities, the Times calculated he had been physically present just 34% of workdays — and that he had left the EOC during Ian. The number has drawn repeated criticism, and plenty of campaign ad fodder, that Welch doesn’t show up to work.
Jan. 30, 2023 — Welch selects the Hines/Rays team for the Gas Plant: And there was much rejoicing. The selection meant a deal in the works to keep the Tampa Bay Rays in St. Petersburg while redeveloping the Gas Plant District in a way that benefits all St. Pete residents. But don’t get too excited.
June 13, 2023 — Black leaders call out Welch on Ray Tampa’s podcast: Tampa, who worked on Welch’s 2021 mayoral campaign, took to his own radio broadcast to criticize Welch for failing to adequately communicate to certain sections of the St. Pete community, including the Black community. Tampa would go on to remain one of Welch’s staunchest critics. 
Sept. 19, 2023 — $1.3 billion stadium deal announced at the Trop: The usual gripes about public subsidies for stadiums notwithstanding, Welch’s legacy project appeared to be gaining steam. But again, don’t get too excited.
Jan. 18, 2024 — Fire Chief Jim Large’s forced retirement announced: Large announced his retirement just days before City Council was set to conduct a management examination of the Fire Department, following allegations he created a hostile work environment for women and minorities. Pitched as a positive retirement at the time, Large would go on to challenge the same Mayor responsible for his downfall as chief.
March 29, 2024 — Welch announces reelection bid: The announcement didn’t exactly land with a bang, as Welch joined a race already expected to feature strong challenges. What’s more, it included a pledge to run on his record, which he has done, only to face significant pushback from opponents and voters alike.
July 18, 2024 — Council approves the Rays/Hines Gas Plant deal: Still don’t get too excited.
Aug. 16, 2024 — Tampa Bay Times breaks the $250K stadium-deal bonuses story: Welch said he was rewarding employees who had gone above and beyond their regular employment, working late nights and weekends to finalize the deal. He would later have to rescind the bonuses after it was discovered they may have been illegal. The unforced error became, and remains, another talking point against him.
Sept. 26, 2024 — Hurricane Helene: The storm only grazed Pinellas County on its way north through the Gulf, but storm surge inundated lower-lying areas, flooding several St. Pete neighborhoods. Welch’s response would become the single largest talking point against him in the Mayor’s race.
Oct. 9, 2024 — Hurricane Milton: Just two weeks after Helene, Milton narrowly missed St. Pete, making landfall just to the south. But unlike Helene, Milton was a wind-maker. It blew the roof off Tropicana Field, igniting a chain of events that would shape the Mayor’s race — including the breakdown of the Rays stadium deal.
Nov. 1, 2024 — Trop underinsurance reported: Before Hurricane Season, the city approved a reduction in insurance coverage on Tropicana Field, from a maximum payout of $100 million to just $25 million — a gamble that would cost the city millions in self-funded repairs it was contractually obligated to complete.
Nov. 21, 2024 — Council delays stadium bonds: Two days after the Pinellas County Commission delayed its bond vote — then a funding formality necessary to advance the stadium deal — City Council did the same. But the Council’s vote was a response to the Rays strongly implying the deal was dead. As it turned out, that was indeed the beginning of the end.
March 13, 2025 — Rays kill the stadium deal: We already knew it was dead.
April 22, 2025 — Albert Whitted non-aviation concepts dropped: After announcing just one month into his administration that he would study non-aviation uses at Albert Whitted Airport, Welch dropped the plan — to the delight of the city’s small but mighty small-aircraft community, which likely would have spent heavily and organized hard against him had he moved forward.
June 30, 2025 — Jabil picks North Carolina: Despite being headquartered in St. Pete, Jabil opted to build a new manufacturing center in North Carolina that would have created nearly 1,200 jobs here. Welch has been at least partially blamed for losing the bid, and it has become a talking point against him this cycle.
Aug. 4, 2025 — Maria Scruggs first to file: Not taken terribly seriously at the time, Scruggs would emerge as a potential vote-splitter, gaining ground among the city’s Black community as some began to sour on Welch.
Aug. 28, 2025 — Ben Diamond decides not to run: Diamond‘s decision paved the way for Crist to enter the race, adding a major fundraising dynamic.
Sept. 30, 2025 — Welch reverses on the Science Center: Under pressure from City Council, Welch reversed his position on the St. Pete Science Center, allowing renovation plans to move forward at its existing site. Welch, leaning on a flawed study, had supported building elsewhere. His would-be opponent, Crist, helped craft the deal Welch initially rejected.
Oct. 3, 2025 — ARK/Ellison $6.8B unsolicited Gas Plant bid: The unsolicited bid attracted a competitive process. The outcome would become a major talking point in the Mayor’s race, and a catalyst for Crist’s fundraising.
Early November, 2025 — Ryan Griffin decides not to run: Griffin, a well-known local lawyer, had been considering running for Mayor briefly, but quietly suspended consideration after a week or so of conversations. A Griffin entrance would have established a sort of “Jeff Brandes lane” in the race, with a somewhat conservative but pragmatic voice on the ticket to balance Welch as a Democrat. His decision not to run likely helped Large land on his decision. 
Nov. 7, 2025 — St. Pete Shines formed: A political committee launched to support candidates committed to “a brighter future” for St. Pete, which would later directly support Crist’s bid for Mayor. To date, the committee has raised nearly $2 million.
Jan. 8, 2026 — St. Pete Shines’ record $725K first report: In its first report since launching, the committee reported raising a record $725,000 in just 49 days, a pace that would largely hold throughout the Primary Election.
Jan. 12, 2026 — Welch treasurer theft reported: Yolanda Brown, treasurer of Welch’s political committee, was accused of stealing more than $200,000 from his Pelican Political Action Committee. The news hit hard. Not only was the campaign out of significant cash, Welch drew criticism as a Certified Public Accountant who hadn’t caught it. The issue would remain a talking point throughout the election.
Feb. 2, 2026 — Welch officially files for reelection: Nothing much to see here.
Feb. 3, 2026 — Nine Gas Plant proposals submitted: Following a brief 30-day submission window, nine ultimately landed at City Hall, prompting criticism of Welch for a rushed process.
Feb. 5, 2026 — City Council votes to pause Gas Plant process: Citing the need for a site study, City Council voted 6-2 on a resolution opposing moving forward with the selection process. The pause idea came from Council member Brandi Gabbard, who would go on to enter the race and become a credible challenger.
Feb. 25, 2026 — Jim Large officially announces campaign: After weeks of speculation, the former fire chief with an embattled relationship with Welch officially jumped in, adding a conservative option to the growing field.
March 10, 2026 — Gabbard files: Gabbard’s entrance meant another registered Democrat in the race, and an alternative to Welch. (Remember, though, the race is technically nonpartisan and party affiliation doesn’t appear on the ballot.)
March 16, 2026 — Kevin Batdorf files: Batdorf never represented a direct threat to Welch, but his entrance put a spotlight on one of Welch’s key weaknesses — the “Welch piles” of storm debris left sitting in neighborhoods after Hurricane Helene.
April 10, 2026 — Tampa Bay Times Crist-in-Minnesota story: The Times chronicled Crist splitting time between Minnesota and St. Pete, creating a theme his opponents and critics would exploit throughout the cycle.
April 27, 2026 — Crist officially files: With well over $1 million already banked, significant name recognition and a race featuring an unpopular incumbent, Crist entered as a frontrunner.
April 29, 2026 — Crist’s opening day video; Castor endorses Welch: As Crist made his first pitch (almost literally) to St. Pete voters, Welch looked across the bay for support from Tampa Mayor Jane Castor. Her endorsement would sting later, when Welch was called out for soliciting support from Mayors actively trying to take the Rays from St. Pete.
June 9, 2026 — Suncoast Tampa Association of Realtors endorses Gabbard: A Realtor herself, Gabbard drew little surprise with the endorsement — but it became a big resource in an otherwise underfunded campaign.
June 9, 2026 — Welch circled at NAACP debate: At the first candidate forum of the cycle, all eyes — and criticisms — were on Welch. He took fire over the Rays deal, hurricane response, business deals and more, a rebuke delivered at an event where he should have been the superstar.
June 15, 2026 — Rouson’s dual endorsement; “Twenty-Three Miles” launches: State Sen. Darryl Rouson, a trusted voice in St. Pete’s Black community, announced he was adding Crist to his endorsement. Rouson maintained his support for Welch at the time, but the dual endorsement was a big ding to the incumbent — and it would only get worse. It was a double-whammy. The same day, Crist’s political committee ran an ad hitting Welch over his decision to spike the Moffitt plan.
June 16, 2026 — Muhammad declines to endorse: Brother John Muhammad, a former City Council member who previously supported Welch, announced he would not endorse in the Mayor’s race. Welch had been a key backer of Muhammad’s appointment to the Council in 2022. His silence didn’t directly help any of Welch’s opponents, but it was a sign the incumbent was bleeding support.
June 18, 2026 — League of Women Voters debate: For the first time this cycle, all six candidates shared a stage, at the League of Women Voters forum in West St. Pete. Unlike the NAACP debate, candidates stuck to policy rather than barbs — but Welch was still largely on the defensive.
June 19, 2026 — Welch PC goes negative against Crist: In the first direct attack ad from his new political committee — his third since first running for Mayor — St. Petersburg Progress sent a text blast calling Crist out as a former Republican. Welch is also a former Republican.
June 30, 2026 — Dueling endorsements: In a show of how polarizing the race had become, Crist rolled out a huge list of Democratic supporters the same day Welch announced support from SEIU Florida, one of the state’s largest labor unions.
July 2, 2026 — Welch selects The Burg Bid: The selection meant rejecting ARK/Ellison, whose plan included a new Moffitt presence in St. Pete. The decision cost Welch politically, as financial backers of the rejected plan shifted support to Crist’s political operation.
July 7, 2026 — Gina Driscoll becomes first sitting Council member to support Crist: Driscoll‘s support was not just a boon for Crist, but a big rejection of both Gabbard, her colleague and sometimes ally on the dais, and Welch as the incumbent.
July 8, 2026 — STAR reaffirms Gabbard support with statewide slate; Welch PC’s first negative ad on digital and streaming: The Realtors group included Gabbard in its statewide list of endorsements, giving that support a second set of legs, as Welch’s political committee launched its first digital and streaming ad attacking Crist’s record as Governor. That theme would recur through the rest of the Primary.
July 11, 2026 — Rick Baker backs Crist; Crist grows cash-on-hand lead to about $1M: Baker, a former Mayor himself, announced his support in a side-by-side video chat from The Hangar at Albert Whitted Airport. The same day, campaign finance reports showed Crist had grown his cash-on-hand advantage over Welch to about $1 million.
July 13-15, 2026 — Vote-by-mail ballots drop; Crist drops an ad, then recuts it after a Welch complaint: As VBM ballots began hitting mailboxes, Crist’s PC released a new ad highlighting failures at City Hall under the current administration, contrasting them with Crist’s pledge to improve affordability and get the city back on track. After Welch’s campaign flagged language about property taxes under his watch, St. Pete Shines quickly cut a new version.
July 18, 2026 — St. Pete Polls survey finds Crist with a whopping lead: The survey found Crist ahead by nearly 17 percentage points, 34.5% to Welch’s 18%. His lead would remain in double digits.
July 27, 2026 — Welch’s “condemn the lie” video: Welch posted a video on his personal social media channels calling on Crist to “condemn the lie,” a response to claims — full disclosure, I made the claim — that Welch had an affair with his former Deputy Mayor. The video prompted a lengthy write-up from Creative Loafing blasting not Crist, but me. It ruffled feathers at the time, but never became a major political headache for Crist.
July 28, 2026 — Crist skips Tiger Bay; 7,500 join his alternative town hall: Citing affordability, Crist declined to attend a candidate forum with the Suncoast Tiger Bay Club because it charges a fee to attend and requires paid membership to ask a question. Instead, he hosted a tele-town hall that drew some 7,500 participants, according to St. Pete Shines. Rivals and their most vocal supporters hammered Crist for the absence; the campaign argued it reached more voters through the town hall, and charged nobody admission to do it.
July 30, 2026 — Tampa Bay Times splits recommendation between Crist and Gabbard: In the ultimate snub, neither Times executive making candidate recommendations this cycle backed the incumbent, despite the paper having recommended Welch in his first mayoral race. Brink backed Crist; President and CEO Conan Gallaty threw in for Gabbard.
Aug. 6, 2026 — City Council takes up a utility rate hike, setting the stage for Gabbard trouble: City Council began its first public discussion of raising utility fees across the board — potable water, wastewater and stormwater, sanitation and reclaimed water. The conversation set up an Aug. 13 vote in the affirmative, with final approval expected Aug. 27. It immediately became a wedge issue, casting Gabbard and Welch as fee-raising leaders at a time when residents can least afford it, against Crist as the candidate vowing to slash fees and property taxes.
Aug. 8, 2026 — Early voting begins; final St. Pete Polls survey shows a three-way tie for second: On the day early voting began in St. Pete — and the day Crist went to vote to literal fanfare — the final St. Pete Polls survey of the race showed a statistical three-way tie for second, with Welch, Gabbard and Large all fighting to clinch a spot in the November runoff. The poll, like others before it, put Crist ahead by double digits.

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Florida Politics Senior Political Editor Janelle Irwin Taylor contributed to this report.