SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – It’s not a storm, a front or anything tropical. But something unusual is sliding across Florida this weekend, and you may actually notice what it doesn’t do.
A pocket of unusually dry air several thousand feet above us will spread across the peninsula Saturday, interfering with one of Florida’s most reliable summer routines: the daily thunderstorm machine.
The result? More sunshine, fewer afternoon storms and, unfortunately, plenty of August heat.
SATURDAY: DRIER, NOT LESS STICKY
Saturday should be the quieter half of the weekend across the Suncoast.
The National Weather Service says drier air in the middle levels of the atmosphere will suppress thunderstorm development. Think of thunderstorms as tall towers trying to grow through the atmosphere. Saturday’s dry layer makes it much harder for those towers to get going.
Most of the Suncoast should stay dry, with rain chances around 10% in Sarasota and generally 30% or less across much of West Central Florida.
Expect mostly sunny skies with highs around 91° to 93°. The humidity isn’t going anywhere, so the heat index could still climb to around 100° or slightly higher.
A west-southwest breeze will push the sea breeze inland during the afternoon, concentrating the few storms that do develop farther into the peninsula.
SUNDAY: THE RAIN MACHINE REBOOTS
Moisture begins creeping back Sunday, and so do the thunderstorms.
Southwest winds will favor some morning activity over the Gulf and near the coast, followed by scattered storms developing and moving inland later in the day.
Rain chances climb to around 40% for Sarasota, with higher chances farther north and inland.
Otherwise, it remains classic late-August Florida: highs near 91°, lows in the upper 70s and enough humidity to make walking to the mailbox feel suspiciously athletic.
NEXT WEEK: HOT FIRST, STORMIER LATER
Monday looks like another relatively quiet day, with only isolated afternoon thunderstorms and highs potentially reaching 93°.
By Tuesday, winds become light southeasterly. That should allow the Gulf Coast sea breeze to develop near the coast before gradually moving inland, bringing scattered afternoon storms.
Deeper tropical moisture begins returning during the middle and latter part of the week. Rain chances increase to around 50% Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal through much of the period, generally topping out in the lower 90s.
BOATING: A PRETTY FRIENDLY GULF
For boaters, this is one of the better-looking August weekends.
Southwest winds Saturday and Sunday should generally remain around 5 to 10 knots, with a light chop on bays and inland waters. No marine advisories are expected.
Saturday offers the better opportunity for avoiding thunderstorms, although an isolated afternoon storm is still possible.
Scattered thunderstorms become more likely Sunday, and storms over the Gulf can develop during the overnight and morning hours.
Remember, winds and seas can increase dramatically near any thunderstorm, even when conditions away from storms are calm.
TROPICS: THREE AREAS, NO IMMEDIATE FLORIDA THREAT
The Atlantic map is getting busier, but nothing currently poses an immediate threat to Florida.
The National Hurricane Center is watching three areas, and all three have only a 20% chance of development during the next seven days.
One low is several hundred miles northeast of the Azores and could briefly become tropical or subtropical before moving toward Portugal and northwestern Spain.
A second weak low sits several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Development would be slow, if it occurs at all, as the system drifts before turning north early next week.
The one worth watching longer-term is still near Africa. A tropical wave is expected to emerge from the African coast early next week, with a low possibly developing as it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic.
That one has a long ocean journey ahead of it and is not a threat to Florida at this time, but late August is when the tropical Atlantic traditionally becomes increasingly active. It’s worth watching, not worrying about.
LOOK UP: THE MOON VISITS THE TEAPOT
If Saturday’s drier atmosphere gives us enough clear sky, there’s something worth looking for after sunset.
The Moon is now a bright waxing gibbous, growing toward full next week. Saturday evening it will be roughly three-quarters illuminated and sitting in Sagittarius near the famous Teapot pattern of stars.
That part of the sky contains some of the richest star fields in the Milky Way, although the bright Moon will wash out many of the fainter stars.
Venus is also easy to spot in the western evening sky. It is gradually closing the gap with Spica, one of the brightest stars in Virgo, ahead of a very close meeting around the beginning of September.
Night owls can also catch Saturn rising in the east around 10 p.m., while early risers can find Mars before dawn and Jupiter very low in the eastern sky shortly before sunrise.
And keep an eye on that growing Moon.
It becomes full late Thursday night, and there’s something considerably more interesting coming with it: a lunar eclipse Thursday night into Friday morning.
That gives us something decidedly less ordinary to talk about next week.
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