The AL East has a clear leader with the Tampa Bay Rays still atop the division, but they’ve now dropped back-to-back outings heading into the weekend. One of those losses came to the Baltimore Orioles, who are still in last place but are still a feisty club that can put up a fight. Tonight’s game starts at 7:05 p.m. ET at Orioles Park in Baltimore.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Rays vs. Orioles game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Orioles prediction, preview
The Rays remain atop the AL at the moment with a 76-52 record, though a +43 run differential is just the fifth best in the league. Still, they have a three-game lead on their own division even after going 4-6 over their last 10 outings. They’re far above the Orioles, who are 62-67 with a -34 run differential. They’re competitive, but not a consistently good team at this stage.
LHP Shane McClanahan (9-6) draws the start for Tampa Bay on the road. His ERA is 3.25 with a 1.12 WHIP and 94 strikeouts across 102.1 IP; a high-quality return campaign from the veteran after missing a couple of seasons due to injury. He has a 22.2% K% and an 8.3% BB%, but has delivered 90th-percentile pitching run value per Baseball Savant with 98th-percentile offspeed run value.
RHP Brandon Young (9-3) is the starter for Baltimore. He’s been very solid this year with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP, even with just 96 strikeouts over his 117.2 IP. He’s posted a K% of just 18.9% with an 8.3% BB%, but his chase rate is borderline elite and he’s clearly been performing given the numbers even despite an uninspiring analytical profile.
The Rays’ offense has been one of the best in baseball throughout the year, and that hasn’t changed since the All-Star break. Their OPS since then sits at an excellent .738 and they’ve scored the eighth-most runs as well; notably, they’re 10th in homers over this span despite a low .145 ISO on the year. They also have the best K% in the sport at just 18.8%. Against right-handed pitching, they slash an awesome .267/.337/.422 with an OPS of .760.
As for the Orioles, they’re at a respectable .701 OPS since the break with the 20th-most runs over the same sample. That does include the ninth-most homers, but a .225 average is fifth lowest among all clubs. On the full season, the ISO comes in at 11th at .162. Facing a lefty is also no issue, seeing as the club slashes .236/.312/.401 in the platoon split.
Rays vs. Orioles pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rays as a -123 Moneyline favorite on the road tonight, while the Orioles enter as +116 underdogs on the road. The total is set at 8.5 combined runs.
Even though Young’s play has largely been very impressive this season in terms of run suppression, I’m fading him hard and rolling with the Rays tonight. He gave up four earned runs on eight hits and three homers in his most recent start, which also came against Tampa Bay. They hit him quite well and they’ve been so good against right-handed pitching throughout the year. In fact, the Rays’ wRC+ against righties is 113, tied for the best mark in the entire MLB with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
With McClanahan throwing well and the offense still playing good ball, I like Tampa Bay to cover the run line on the road at plus value.