Orange County Democrats believe they can start off 2027 in control of all eight county commission seats and the mayor’s chair after Tuesday’s primary election teed up a number of showdowns with GOP candidates in November.
Republicans, though, think the property tax amendment on the ballot will give them an electoral boost.
While the county races are officially nonpartisan and party affiliation won’t appear on the ballot, party registration will certainly be a factor in deep blue Orange. Official Democratic Party backing will crank up a well-oiled machine of canvassers, volunteers and fundraisers for which the county’s progressive standard bearers, U.S. Rep. Maxwell Frost and state Rep. Anna Eskamani, have become known.
“We don’t believe in empty endorsements,” Frost said at a Thursday rally, throwing his weight behind the local Dems. “We’re going to knock doors, we’re going to raise money, we’re going to do the events and we’re going to do the work necessary to win.”
After a bruising summer mayoral campaign that included three Democrats, Clerk of Courts Tiffany Moore Russell made it to November as the lone member of the party remaining. Republican Chris Messina, who was endorsed by the county GOP months ago, edged out former U.S. Rep. Stephanie Murphy for the second slot in the November runoff.
This week’s slate of Orange Democrat endorsements also includes former State Reps. Kamia Brown in District 2 and Johanna Lopez in District 4, former Pine Hills Community Council president Patricia Rumph in District 7 and former State Sen. Vic Torres in District 8.
While the party isn’t formally backing a District 6 candidate because the runoff features two Democrats, Moore Russell offered her own public backing of incumbent Mike Scott.
While Democrats hold a substantial edge in voter registration in Orange County – 39% of the county electorate, compared with 29% with no party affiliation and 28% registered Republicans – Republicans have long maintained a presence on the board, specifically in District 2 representing the Apopka area.
Orange County mayoral candidate Chris Messina celebrates his advancement to a November runoff with his family and supporters during an election night watch party at Grills Lakeside in Orlando on Tuesday. (Rich Pope/Orlando Sentinel)
Republican Christine Moore served nearly 8 years in the seat before resigning her term early to unsuccessfully run for Apopka Mayor. Before her, Bryan Nelson held the post for four years before also running for Apopka mayor.
Other recent Republicans have included Betsy Vanderley, who represented District 1 in west Orange from 2016 to 2020, and Teresa Jacobs, who served as mayor from 2010 to 2018.
But the board is now larger after voters decided to add two new districts and expand it from seven voting members to nine, including the mayor. All but District 1 – occupied by incumbent Democrat Nicole Wilson, who isn’t up for election this cycle – have more registered Democrats than Republicans, elections data shows.
A University of North Florida poll shows Florida voters are most concerned with affordability, which the candidates will have to grapple with as they make their cases to voters in the coming months.
“The fact of the matter is, Democrats nationwide, we’ve got an issue. And the issue is that the most expensive places to live in this nation are run by our party,” Frost said.
“This is why new leadership is important,” he added. “These are folks saying we’re going to ensure that we go down a path where people can afford to live in Orange County and where people can afford to live in the State of Florida.”
Moore Russell said the Democratic commission candidates will be crucial to carrying out her vision for the county if she wins in November, telling rallygoers they will “stand up for working families” and will be “leaders who understand that growth must come with infrastructure, leaders who understand that transportation is not just about roads.”
“We’re all still different in how we lead and how we move forward – but the one thing that’s consistent is we all have the same vision for how families are struggling,” she said. “We want more housing, we want more transportation solutions, we want to create high-wage jobs. As long as we have a shared vision, how we get there we can work through.”
Erin Huntley, the Orange County Republican Party chairwoman, said the party is excited about its own slate of candidates, who will campaign with state-level Republicans atop the ticket as well. She said their message of reducing taxes and spending offers a clear contrast.
“Only the Republican candidates have real solutions for that,” said Huntley, herself a candidate in state House District 45. “There is one party that wants to tax and spend more. And there’s another – our party – that wants to put money back in their pockets.”
Messina and Huntley each said he was boosted in the primary by his position as the only candidate in the race in favor of Amendment 3, which would roll back property taxes, as well as his business-minded views of how to run a county.
“I’ll be making my case to all of the voters about economic empowerment, about wanting to have a safe Orange County and an Orange County where our youth have hope,” Messina said this week.
The District 2 race will technically feature an incumbent Republican in Mike Crabb, a now-retired sheriff’s office lieutenant who was appointed to the seat by Gov. Ron DeSantis earlier in the month, just ahead of the primary. Crabb has yet to formally take office, and is expected to be sworn in next week.
Crabb received about 25% of the vote last week to secure a spot in the November runoff, seven points behind Brown.
Republican Jeannette Quinones Hernandez, a former Hispanic outreach director for former U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, also made the runoff in District 8 with 18% of the vote to Torres’ 31%.
Brian Jones, also endorsed by the Orange County Republicans, will face Lopez in November in District 4.