Already facing a difficult path to keep his current job, Ken Welch hints to supporters he’s eyeing Governor’s Mansion

Dress for the job you want, not the job you have.

That’s the advice we’re told from a young age, to ensure we’re always positioning ourselves for that next rung on the ladder. And it’s good advice, when applied appropriately.

Swapping out the word “dress” for “fundraise” isn’t always the appropriate application, and it’s definitely not if your name is Ken Welch and you just finished nearly 15 points behind your re-election opponent.

Yet that is essentially what Welch appears to be doing.

Welch, facing re-election as St. Petersburg Mayor after a Primary that saw nearly 80% of voters cast a ballot against him, sent a fundraising text seeking “a final $10,000” and strongly implying a future bid for Governor, according to the recipient of the text who asked not to be named for fear of retribution from the Mayor’s Office.

That recipient is a past major donor to Welch’s 2021 campaign and a current donor to his re-election. They received a text declaring “we’re in the runoff, and we’re going to win,” adding that Welch is “asking for your help — for the last time as Mayor.” But what really sticks out is the parenthetical that follows.

“(Maybe Governor down the road)!”

Usually, parentheses within quotation marks indicate an addition that wasn’t a direct quote. In this case, the parenthetical IS the direct quote. Welch just declared to a former supporter that he might someday run for Governor.

Welch’s campaign dismissed the declaration as a joke.

“This was a private fundraising text with an obvious joke in parentheses, not a campaign launch for governor. Mayor Welch is focused on winning this runoff and serving St. Petersburg. If we ever announce a statewide campaign, it won’t be buried in parentheses in a private text message,” campaign spokesperson and Chair of Welch’s political committee Adrienne Bogen said in a statement.

But there’s more, and I’ll get to that in just a second, but let’s unpack this doozie so far.

Welch, after having nearly 80% of the city’s Primary voters cast a ballot against him, facing a runoff election in November where it’s more likely voters will give him a pink slip rather than another four years, is already plotting his next political move.

This is a man who has an all but impossible path to victory. He narrowly managed to stay alive in the Mayor’s race last week. And what’s ironic is, the reason he wasn’t defeated in the Primary is likely, or at least in part, because so many people thought Welch was doing a bad job as Mayor that he drew five (5!!!) opponents who all ran to at least some degree on the premise that City Hall needs a change.

The Tampa Bay Times over the weekend published an article whose headline posed an important question: “Can Welch bounce back?”

The article laid out the myriad challenges facing the incumbent Mayor. The only sources quoted in the article supporting Welch’s chances were his fiercest defenders, including one who is a family member. Everyone else agreed there is little to no path for Welch. One of his defeated opponents, Maria Scruggs, told the outlet voters cast their ballots last week “simply wanting Mayor Welch gone.”

The Times paraphrased Lee Bryant, a former Pinellas Classroom Teachers Association President who voted for City Council Member Brandi Gabbard in the mayoral Primary, as saying there is a palpable lack of enthusiasm around Welch that will be hard to change.

Asked what his path was, Welch himself told the outlet he wasn’t concerned, that he’ll produce plans where front-runner Charlie Crist, a former Governor, has not, adding that the runoff is “a new game.”

Retired University of South Florida political science professor Darryl Paulson wasn’t buying it.

“If that’s his approach, look in the mirror and ask yourself, ‘What is your strategy?’ Because voters don’t seem to know,” Paulson told the outlet. “Because if they did know what your strategy was, you’d receive more than 20% of the vote.”

What Paulson didn’t directly say, but mostly implied, is that Welch’s hubris is getting in his way. That’s something we’ve heard from sources all over the city, and some from outside it. Welch has flippantly dismissed complaints about his absenteeism at City Hall, his decision to leave the Emergency Operations Center during Hurricane Ian, his administration’s response to Hurricanes Helene and Milton, and even the theft of more than $200,000 from the now-closed political committee that was supporting his re-election campaign at the time. The general consensus is that Welch simply refuses to admit there might be a problem.

The fundraising text reiterates that.

First, how can someone be plotting a run for statewide office when they are, right this very second and for the next more than two months, fighting for their political life? How can someone whose executive job performance has been so questionable they drew five opponents and only made the runoff for re-election with less than 21% of the vote think voters will instead want to give them a promotion? The opposition mailers write themselves.

Second, there’s more to the text.

“Charlie spent most of his $2 million to make the general, so we’re close to a level playing field going in,” it read.

This is great. Reassure supporters capable of writing big checks that you’re a worthy investment by A: pretending to be operating from a position of strength; B: speculating a future run for higher office; and C: arguing there’s a “level playing field” when it comes to on-hand cash.

We’ve already dissected the position of strength. Someone has that, but it ain’t Welch. The run for higher office is just silly talk. At last count the GOP had a stranglehold over voter registration in Florida and a Democrat, which Welch is, hasn’t won the Governor’s mansion since Lawton Chiles and Buddy MacKay left office in 1999.

So that leaves us with this level playing field business.

I’m not sure what Mayor Welch’s definition of “level playing field” is, but I am certain it’s not the same as mine. When I hear that phrase in relation to campaign finance, I think 10%, maybe 20% difference. One candidate has $100,000, the other $80,000. Something like that.

Well, one candidate does have $80,000 (Welch), and the other does indeed have six figures (Crist). But the field is decidedly not level. Crist’s last campaign finance reports showed him with more than $700,000 still on hand. To put it differently, Crist has nearly nine times more cash on hand than Welch.

And the uneven terrain is about more than just financial resources.

Another Tampa Bay Times report analyzing election outcomes in all 84 St. Petersburg precincts found Crist finishing no worse than second place in all of them. Welch, meanwhile, fared no better than third place in 70% of the city’s precincts. And while Welch carried the city’s majority minority districts, he did so in some cases with Crist nipping at his heels.

The prognosis is so bad for Welch even Kalshi has him at long odds, with just 14% chance of victory in November.

The source who received Welch’s $10,000 fundraising pitch no longer supports the incumbent. But anyone else who might have received a similar pitch might want to consider the details Welch has left out.

It’s highly unlikely he’ll win this race, which makes it highly unlikely he’d win an even higher-stakes one. And the playing field is not level — not on cash, not on polling and certainly not in the Primary outcomes we already know.

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Ed. note: Michelle Todd Schorsch is the Chair of St. Pete Shines, a political committee backing Crist for St. Petersburg Mayor. Todd Schorsch is married to Peter Schorsch, the publisher of Florida Politics.