Bulletin Report

Florida State is paying New Mexico State $1.4 million to come to Tallahassee Saturday night. What the Seminoles aren’t paying for in this week zero matchup is trouble.

NM State opens its 2026 season against one of college football’s traditional powers at Doak Campbell Stadium, where the Aggies will enter as a heavy underdog against a Florida State program trying to reestablish itself after consecutive losing seasons.

The guarantee, agreed to when the game was scheduled, illustrates the difference between the programs. Florida State gets a home game it expects to win. NMSU gets a substantial payday and, for third-year coach Tony Sanchez, an immediate opportunity to find out how his team measures up against Power Four talent.

The Aggies and Seminoles kick off at 5 p.m. Mountain time Saturday on The CW. It will be NM State’s first season opener on the road since playing at Washington State in 2019 and its first opener against a power-conference opponent since that same game. The challenge is substantial, but perhaps not quite as imposing as the Florida State name might suggest.

The Seminoles compiled a 5-7 record last season, their second consecutive losing campaign, and have finished below .500 six times in the past eight years. FSU was picked 11th in the 17-team Atlantic Coast Conference preseason media poll, putting pressure on seventh-year coach Mike Norvell to begin turning the program back in the right direction, but that doesn’t mean the talent gap has disappeared.

Florida State averaged 33 points and 472.1 yards per game last season, including 218.7 yards rushing. NMSU averaged 21.6 points and 327.9 yards and managed just 77.3 rushing yards per game. The Seminoles also return one of the country’s most dangerous receivers in Duce Robinson, who had 1,081 receiving yards and six touchdowns last season and enters 2026 with a collection of preseason honors and national award watch-list recognition.

Auburn transfer Ashton Daniels takes over at quarterback after previously starting at Stanford, giving Florida State an experienced dual-threat option. The Seminoles also have depth in the backfield and return Mandrell Desir, who led the defense with 6.5 sacks last season.

For NM State, staying competitive begins with its own new quarterback. Trey Hedden will make his Aggie debut after transferring from Furman, where he threw for 4,734 yards and 30 touchdowns over two seasons. Hedden set a Furman single-season record with 2,967 passing yards last year and arrives in Las Cruces to play for offensive coordinator David Yost, who enters his second season with the Aggies.

Hedden will at least have an established target. TK King caught 41 passes for 588 yards despite playing just eight games last season and finished the year with a 10-catch, 178-yard performance against Middle Tennessee. He enters 2026 as NM State’s leading returning receiver and one of its six team captains.

But perhaps the most important development to watch Saturday will be what happens behind Hedden.

NMSU’s inability to run the football was one of its biggest problems in 2025. The Aggies surpassed 100 rushing yards as a team just twice all season. They hope Delaware State transfer James Jones can change that as he rushed for 958 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 9.8 yards per carry last season.

If NM State can’t establish some threat on the ground, asking Hedden to operate in obvious passing situations against Florida State’s speed could make for a long night.

The Aggies’ best chance to change the equation may come from a defense that became increasingly adept at creating extra possessions last season. NMSU forced a turnover in every game and finished with 24 takeaways — 15 interceptions and nine fumble recoveries — to rank 14th nationally. Linebackers Sone Aupiu and Tory Gethers return after combining for 156 tackles, giving the Aggies experience in the middle of the defense. Experience, in fact, is one of the reasons Sanchez believes this team can take another step.

The Aggies enter the season with 215 combined FBS starts, second-most among Conference USA teams, and 92 of the 105 players on the roster were with the program during the spring. That represents considerably more stability than a year ago, when NMSU lost 18 players, including seven starters, following spring practice.

Whether that translates into an upset Saturday is another matter. NM State is 16-124 all-time against programs currently in the ACC, SEC, Big Ten and Big 12. But the Aggies don’t have to look far into their own history for evidence that the improbable can happen. Their most recent Power Four victory came in 2023, when they walked into Auburn and dominated the Tigers 31-10. Saturday provides another opportunity on a much bigger stage.

For FSU, anything other than a convincing victory would raise questions before its season has really begun. For NMSU, the questions are different: Can Hedden handle the speed of a Power Four defense? Can Jones give the Aggies a running game? Can King make plays against an athletic secondary? Can the defense continue creating turnovers? And, perhaps most importantly, can the Aggies stay close enough early to make Florida State sweat a little bit?

An upset would be historic. But even if the expected result ultimately arrives, the way NMSU gets there could tell Sanchez considerably more about his football team than an easier opening assignment ever could.