A mid-summer turnaround has vaulted the Padres (72-62) into National League contention. As things stand right now, San Diego possesses the Senior Circuit’s final wild card spot. This weekend’s three-game series will serve as a crucial litmus test for the Friars. The Rays (79-54), owners of the AL’s best record, have their eyes set on a World Series appearance. Still, Tampa Bay needs to fend off the rival Yankees and Red Sox in the top-heavy American League East. Which side will come out on top this evening at the Trop?
The Rays are favorites (-128) over the Padres; the over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between San Diego and Tampa Bay on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Rays pick, best bet today
Rays ML (-128): Mize has pitched poorly during his brief time in San Diego, and Friday’s game offers no reprieve. Tampa Bay’s contact-oriented lineup is capable of driving up the pitch count and getting into the bullpen early. On the other side, McClanahan should find success against a Padres offense that struggles against lefties.
Padres vs. Rays prediction, preview
San Diego’s strength is on the mound, specifically a super bullpen. Still, the road to closer Mason Miller requires a decent effort from the team’s starting pitching. Fortunately, the front office was aggressive in adding to the rotation during August 3rd’s trade deadline. New acquisition Casey Mize, brought over from Detroit, has been ineffective during his brief time with the Padres. Over four starts, he’s on the hook for a 7.00 ERA. Still, the former All-Star’s track record speaks for itself. Over 20 total starts this season, Mize has delivered a 3.43 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 95 strikeouts (8.2 K/9).
Mize’s biggest issue in recent weeks has been a propensity for coughing up base hits. That doesn’t exactly bode well heading into Friday’s matchup. The Rays, despite a lack of power, can hold their own at the plate. That’s due to their capacity for (you guessed it) racking up hits. Tampa Bay is first in batting average (.260), fifth in on-base percentage (.329) and tied for seventh in OPS (.731). This lineup hasn’t been great lately, scoring the sixth-fewest runs in baseball (36) over their last ten contests. Still, there’s some reason for optimism tonight. The Rays have difficulty elevating the ball, putting up an American League-worst 45.7% ground ball rate. However, Mize only places inside the eighth percentile among qualified starters with a 31.8% ground ball rate.
As for Tampa Bay, Shane McClanahan will get the nod on Friday. It’s been a bounceback campaign from the southpaw, still among the American League’s best arms. Through 107.1 innings (22 starts), he’s delivered a 3.10 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 99 strikeouts (8.3 K/9). It helps that today’s contest takes place at the friendly confines of Tropicana Field; Sugar Shane owns a 2.32 ERA at the venue this season. McClanahan, unlike Mize, frequently forces opponents to hit one into the dirt. His 46.9% ground ball rate places him within the league’s 74th percentile. During his most recent appearance, the 29-year-old tossed five scoreless innings vs. the Orioles.
The Padres haven’t been the most consistent group at the plate this season. However, the past few months have been a boon for this group. Since July 1st, they’re sixth in baseball with 239 runs scored. With that being said, Friday’s contest presents a few issues for most of these hitters. San Diego has a .687 OPS against left-handed pitching, tied for eighth-worst in the majors. During this week’s three-game series vs. Pittsburgh, the Friars only managed to score a combined five runs. When McClanahan last faced the Padres in 2023, he allowed just one run over 6.2 innings. Granted, that was three years ago, but it’s a positive sign at the very least.
The Rays, owner of the third-best home record in baseball (43-23), should come into this one feeling confident. San Diego is a dangerous opponent to be clear, but they’ve shown an inability to consistently hit lefties. It helps that McClanahan is a much better pitcher at home, while Mize has looked off since joining the Padres. All signs are pointing towards a Tampa Bay victory tonight.
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