With Florida’s statewide races tightening, new polling shows the contests for governor, U.S. Senate and attorney general all within the margin of error heading toward November.

A St. Pete Polls survey of 913 likely Florida voters found the governor’s race essentially even, with Byron Donalds rounding up to 44 percent and David Jolly rounding down to 43 percent. In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon both round to 45 percent. In the attorney general contest, Republican James Uthmeier is at 43 percent and Democrat José Javier Rodríguez is at 42 percent. All three races fall within the poll’s 3.2-percentage-point margin of error.

St. Pete Polls President Matt Florell said the close numbers come as Florida’s electorate has shifted in recent years.

“…which is very interesting because we’ve had a pretty significant shift in the electorate just in the last four years towards more Republican,” Florell said.

According to the Florida Division of Elections, Republicans now outnumber Democrats by more than 1.5 million active registered voters statewide. But Florida State University Political Science Professor Dr. Lana Atkeson said registration totals alone do not determine who will vote or how they will cast their ballots.

“We just got through the primaries, and a lot of people don’t participate in those. I mean, even among registered Republicans and Democrats, a lot of them don’t participate,” Atkeson said.

Florell said the poll is already showing some voters breaking from party labels. The survey also found a sharp age divide in the governor’s race, with Jolly leading among voters under 50 and Donalds leading among those 50 and older.

“What we’re seeing in the polling is a lot of crossover votes of Republicans saying they’re in favor of the Democrat and more independents that are saying they’re going to vote for the Democrat, as well as some other demographics,” Florell said.

The poll also found sizable shares of voters still undecided: about nine percent in the governor’s race, seven percent in the U.S. Senate race and 15 percent in the attorney general race. Atkeson said turnout will be a key factor as the election nears.

“It’s September 18th. We haven’t started voting. So, it’s really, it’s really just starting to be the focus of people’s attention, right?” Atkeson said. “So for down the ballot contests we would expect a larger number of ‘don’t knows.’”

Atkeson said that can be especially true farther down the ballot, where voters may know less about the candidates, and the undecided numbers have time to change.

“Polls are a snapshot in time and everything can change in a week or in a month,” Florell said.

St. Pete Polls surveyed likely Florida voters from Sept. 15 through Sept. 17. The survey was conducted for and paid for by Florida Politics.