TAMPA, Fla. — The Southwest Florida Water Management District is expected to consider extending its Phase III Modified Water Shortage Order during a board meeting Tuesday, as the region continues to face a significant rainfall deficit.
The district says summer storms have helped stabilize conditions, but they have not been enough to erase the long-term shortage. According to the district, the rainfall deficit grew slightly from 15.2 inches in July to 15.4 inches in August.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor map shows moderate to extreme drought conditions still affecting much of the greater Tampa Bay area.
Some communities, including Brooksville, Lakeland and parts of Tampa, have seen heavy rain and even flooding in recent months. However, water officials say the rainfall has not been widespread or consistent enough to significantly reduce drought conditions across the district.
“The bigger issue is the long-term deficit,” the Southwest Florida Water Management District said in a statement. “Districtwide monthly rainfall totals were below average every month since November 2024 except for May 2025 and May 2026. Given consistent, below-average rainfall, we need consistent above-average rainfall to relieve the long-term deficit.”
Florida’s rainy season officially ends in the coming weeks, raising concerns that the region may not receive enough rain to make up the deficit before the drier months begin.
According to our Bay News 9 Weather Experts, beginning in October, the average monthly rainfall drops significantly in Tampa Bay as we enter our dry season. However, with the expected very strong El Nino for the Fall and Winter, we would have a wetter Winter in Florida and potentially more severe weather.
The district’s board is expected to discuss the water shortage order and possible extension at Tuesday’s meeting in Tampa.
