Storm clouds bring an ominous look to Fort Myers on Friday, Aug. 7, 2026. Despite recent rains, parts of Southwest Florida are still seeing drought conditions.
Andrew West/Fort Myers News-Pres
USA TODAY Network, Reuters
Finally, the rains have come.
The first part of summer was unseasonably dry, which was bad news for a region that’s been gripped in various stages of drought this entire year.
But the classic summertime daily weather pattern is now in full swing, and some areas are seeing an improvement in drought conditions.
“We’re actually still below average for the month,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Rodney Wynn. “Since Jan. 1, we’re still minus 13 inches. We’ve gotten some rain to relieve the drought but we’re still 13 inches below normal.”
By this point in the year, Southwest Florida typically sees 4 feet of rain, but this year that total is closer to 35 inches of precipitation.
The good news for those tired of the heat is that come slightly cooler, drier weather is headed this way for the weekend.
“The average high temperature is still 90 degrees, and that will drop off by a few degrees over the next month,” Wynn said. “This weekend the lows will be in the low 70s, and the dew points are going to feel more comfortable.”
Wynn said it will likely be another month until Southwest Florida sees a significant cold front. Even then, highs average 90 degrees through Halloween, according to NWS records that date back to 1902.
The dew points will be in the mid-60s over the weekend so that’s going to feel a lot more comfortable than the mid-to-upper 70s that we have been seeing,” Wynn said.
The National Weather Service is calling for a 30% to 80% chance of rain each day for the next week.
Highs will be around 90 degrees with lows around 70 degrees, NWS says.
Have you ever seen the rain?
The 2026 summer has been an odd one in that daily rains didn’t really start until August.
Typically, the rainfall pattern that creates thunderstorms and showers almost daily during the summer starts in May or June.
But this year, the steady rains started a few months later than average.
Weather in South Florida is an extreme pendulum that swings between the hot and humid, subtropical and the dry, paradise-like weather we enjoy during the winter and spring.
Historically, the end to the rainy season in Southwest Florida has been on Oct. 15, but the timeframe when rains stop and dry conditions move in varies year to year.
Years-long droughts have been recorded in Florida
This year’s drought isn’t all that surprising as Florida sees drought conditions every few years on average.
This is the fourth long-duration drought event this region has experienced since 2000, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, records.
It’s the worst drought on record since 2012, NOAA says.
NOAA is calling for a strong chance of above-average rainfall in all of Florida between now and the end of December.
Temperatures, however, will be above-average as well, NOAA’s latest report says.
El Nino likely to bring some severe weather to the Fort Myers-Naples area
During the winter, El Nino tends to bring more frequent, stronger cold fronts to our region.
An El Nino winters also tend to bring higher-than-average rainfall totals and more turbulent conditions.
This El Nino is expected to stay in place until April or May, weather forecasters say.
That means El Nino would then swing back to neutral or to La Nina.
El Nino is the only phase of that weather phenomenon that suppresses the development of tropical storms and hurricanes, so we won’t have the storm protection in 2027 that we’ve enjoyed this year.
Chad Gillis is an environment reporter and can be reached by email at cgillis@news-press.com.
Please support local community journalism and stay informed about Southwest Florida news by subscribing to The News-Press and Naples Daily News; download the free News-Press or Naples Daily News app, and sign up for daily briefing email newsletter, food & dining and growth & development newsletters here and here.
This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Fall is here: What that means for Fort Myers, Naples weather this week
Reporting by Chad Gillis, Fort Myers News-Press & Naples Daily News / Fort Myers News-Press
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
Copyright Reuters or USA Today Network via Reuters Connect
This story was originally published September 22, 2026 at 3:23 PM.