Decision Desk HQ moved Florida’s Governor’s race to toss-up on Wednesday. As of Friday afternoon, traders on the Kalshi prediction market give Byron Donalds a 77% chance of beating David Jolly in November, up 3 points over the past day, on more than $2.2 million in trading volume.
Decision Desk’s forecast has Donalds at 60%, down from 68% at the start of September. The race had been in its Leans Republican column. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved Florida to Lean Republican the same week. Inside Elections made a similar move the week before.
Kalshi had Republicans at 89% to keep the Governor’s Mansion in June 2025, before Jolly had a contract of his own, and 83% on Primary day last month.
Kalshi’s own polling average, pulled from VoteHub, has Donalds ahead 45% to 42%. St. Pete Polls had it 44% to 43% last week.
Ashley Moody sits at 88% against Angie Nixon, on roughly $900,000 in volume. St. Pete Polls had the two tied at 45% last week.
Kalshi rates one Florida seat a toss-up. In the redrawn 22nd Congressional District, Democrat Pia Dandiya is at 53% against Republican Casey Askar, on about $121,000 in volume, in a district Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024 after Joe Biden carried it in 2020. The same market had Askar at 57% on Thursday.
In the new 25th, Jared Moskowitz is at 75% against Republican Scott Singer, on about $233,000 in volume, in a seat Trump won by 9 points.
Kalshi puts five more Florida seats in its Lean column. Florida’s 7th, 9th, 13th and 27th Congressional Districts are between 66% and 70% Republican. Florida’s 14th Congressional District is 69% Democratic. The rest of the Florida map is Likely or Safe.
Kalshi’s American Power Index, which the company bills as an “S&P 500 for politics,” stood at D +3.9 on Friday. The same markets give Democrats a 91% chance of taking the House and a 61% chance of taking the Senate.
Kalshi launched its Midterms Hub in July. The page shows live odds alongside VoteHub polling averages, FEC fundraising data, and past presidential results for every Senate, House, and Governor’s race in the country. The company says about 75% of visitors come to check the odds and 25% trade, that its favorites have won roughly nine times in 10 since 2024, and that the prices carry no partisan lean because traders are risking money on them.
Gov. Ron DeSantis said in February the state was still “trying to get our mind around” whether Kalshi conflicts with the Seminole Tribe’s exclusive rights to sports betting. Kalshi has told other states it runs a financial exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Kalshi bars holders of federal and statewide office from trading its election contracts. Donalds and Moody cannot buy shares of themselves. Jolly, who left Congress in 2017, can.
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Ed. note: This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review were performed by Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team.