Tallahassee’s recent dry spell is expected to come to an end with the arrival of a slow-moving cold front and accompanying rain in what may be a harbinger of wet weather to come from a forecast record El Niño.
Higher rain chances begin Friday and continue through the weekend into early next week, according to the National Weather Service in Tallahassee. The highest rain chances for Tallahassee, which slipped back into drought territory, comes Monday with 70%.
Cameron Young, lead meteorologist with Weather Service, said the system is expected to bring about an inch to an inch of a half of rain, though points west, including Panama City, could see 2 to 4 inches.
The Tallahassee area is expected to shift to a wetter weather pattern over coming days.
“That is basically bringing the best rain chances that we’ve seen in a while,” Young said. “It has been pretty dry lately. We’re back into the D1 moderate drought on the Drought Monitor now. So this is definitely going to be helpful. Whether or not it brings us back out of the drought, still a little too early to tell.”
Tallahassee dried to a crisp after its worst drought in history, which began in July 2025 and didn’t officially end until late July 2026, after a series of storms, including the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur, soaked the area.
But after a dry August and September, Leon County moved back into official drought territory on Sept. 15. So far in September, only about 2 inches of rain have fallen, well shy of the normal 4.62 inches.
And while October and November are Tallahassee’s driest months, Young said El Niño could negate that. The weather phenomenon, marked by warming waters in the Pacific Ocean, can bring dryer weather to the northern U.S. and wetter weather and flooding to the Southeast.
Much of Leon County was listed by the U.S. Drought Monitor as being in a moderate drought as of Sept. 22, 2026.
“We’ve kind of seen it already with the quiet hurricane season,” he said of El Niño. “But the kind of winter pattern when we start getting the active systems and more rain — it takes a while for the atmosphere to really respond and catch up. This is kind of our first sign of that.”
NWS said the rain will likely be “beneficial” given dry conditions in the region, through locally heavy downpours are possible. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map, most of Leon County is in a moderate drought, with portions of the far north and far west abnormally dry.
Contact Jeff Burlew at jburlew@tallahassee.com
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Tallahassee, back in drought, may see relief from rain system, El Niño