Many fans feel positive about Miami’s recent loss to KC. I am one of them. To unbiased observers positive feelings do not mix well with three consecutive losses to start a season. But to fans who endured 2019 this is a cakewalk. In 2019 Miami lost the first three games by a combined score of 16-133 this year we have “only’ lost the three games by a combined score of 36-86. And more Importantly unlike 2019 the Dolphins look like they belong in an NFL stadium.
Miami improved in several ways. The defense, though aided by two turnovers, kept an SB team within one score for 3.5 quarters and harassed Mahomes with six hits. Rookies like Rodriguez and Johnson improved.
And the offense, even after the loss of Achane was able to move the ball. The maligned receiver corps, got open against a very good defense. The offensive line gave Willis time to throw. And Willis, who in my view, was the main cause of the defeat, looked like a competent QB.
Several excellent posters have covered the game, and I won’t compete with them because I tend to agree with their analysis. Instead, I will focus on what my view of the All-22 showed me about the six deep throws which PFF credited Willis with. Willis only completed one of the six passes. Even though none of those passes were intercepted, two of them should have been, and the missed opportunities were decisive in the outcome.
Description of the Passes.
Note: I viewed the entire All-22 at low speed. Each of these plays was examined at least three times using both the broadcast and All-22 views. I am pretty sure of what I saw, but if you see something different please let me know and I will take another look.
1. First Quarter 6:35 left at KC 32. 1st and 15 after a motion penalty. Chris Bell on slot on left side. KC playing man of with single safety. Chris Bell gets a jump on the corner with the safety not visible. The Chiefs rush five and Austin Jackson allows his rusher to get dangerously close to Wills as he lets the ball go at the Chiefs 41 while Bell is at the 21 with a step on the defender. Bell appears to slow down as he looks for the ball, The ball falls around three inches ahead of Bell’s stretched hands. This appears to me to be a really good throw and was easily the best deep pass that Willis threw on Sunday. This play did not affect the outcome as Miami scored a TD on this drive.
2. Third Quarter, 14:15 at KC 32. (2nd play of first second half possession). Second down and eight. Dulcich on the left. Washington and Herman on the right. Ball starts at Miami 23. Chiefs playing man but starting with two safeties, Willis starts under center and fakes a handoff to Gordon and continues rolling to his left. Washington appears to be running a 12-yard-deep dig but reverses directions to Willis’ left. When Willies turns Washington is open and Dulcich is covered by two DB’s. Willis takes time to release from Miami’s 19-yard line. When he does let go Dulcich is around KC 48 about 33 yards away from Willis and bracketed. Willis essentially throws a Hail Mary to the KC 34 with Dulcich and the two backs looking for the ball. Dulcich does a great job using his superior size to come down with the ball and gets to the KC 30. The play worked but this was not close to a good pass.
3. Third Quarter 13:27. Next play from KC 30. Washington is lined up on the left and Dulcich is also on the left. Again, two safeties and off man coverage. Willis under center fakes a handoff and circles. When gets ready to throw at the KC 37. Dulcich is bracketed by two dbs at the 10-yard line. Washington has single coverage and is approaching the end zone. The pass that Willis throws has no chance. Dulcich jumps for it and misses but it is hard to see how an accurate pass does not get intercepted. On the other hand, an accurate pass to Washington would have had a chance. Dolphins went on to score a field goal on this possession.
4. Third Quarter 7:30. First down and 10, Miami 31. Miller is on the right and has single coverage. Willis fakes a handoff and circles to his right with a clean pocket. Willis lets the ball go from his 32-yard line when Miller is at KC 44. From the 32, Willis launches a 57-yard pass. This ball is underthrown and the defender is in position to make the interception but the ball falls to the ground when Miller returns to fight for it. This play was a good call with a good chance of working but Willis simply took too long to get rid of the ball. There are not many NFL QB who can throw 60-yard passes in game conditions.
5. Third Quarter 3:57. First and 10 from KC 43. Washington is on the left with the Chiefs playing man. There is no play action. Willis drops eight yards and launches the pass from his own 48. When he throws Washington has a full step on the receiver and he is at KC 25. Washington continues running at full speed and he retains separation as he gets very close to end zone. The ball falls around two yards past on the goal line, out of reach. This is a 54-yard throw. In this play Willis exhibited great arm strength which should play off when the timing with Washington improves.
6. Third Quarter. 3:24. Third and nine from KC 42. Willis on shotgun formation. Washington, Miller and Bell are bunched on the right side. Dulcich is on the left. Coverage is zone. Originally, I thought this was a badly designed play as the three receivers are in the same area in the vicinity of five defenders. However, Dulcich and Washington attract a lot of attention Bell gets wide open on a sideline route about seven yards deep while Miller is open on a dig route 12 yards deep. Willis throws the ball from his 50 but is not clear who he is aiming for. The throw is way off as it overthrows Washington and hits the defender in the hands at KC’s 14. This was Willis’ worst throw of the day and clearly turnover worthy. This play was not designed as a deep pass, but Willis threw one anyway. Dolphins punted the next play.
Summary. The five throws above were bad and a reason why Willis was ranked 28th of 32 QB on week three. However, I believe that Willis made significant improvement from week 2. His timing with both Washington and Bell improved tremendously in the short and intermediate game. I have stated before that I think Slowik had done a good job as the offensive play caller. In this game, in my view, Slowik called for too many deep passes. Look forward to watching how Slowik and Willis react next week.
Gines Lleonart