A surface trough of low pressure has developed near the coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions are only marginally favorable right now, so development would likely be slow.
Still, gradual organization is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the second half of the week.
The system is expected to initially drift east before turning north, so the exact track and strength will depend on how it interacts with the stalled boundary, upper-level winds, and overall Gulf moisture.
Formation chances are 10% through the next 48 hours and 50% through the next 7 days.
For NE Florida and SE Georgia, there is no direct tropical threat at this time.
That said, we’ll want to watch the Gulf closely because any development could influence our pattern later this week, especially with deeper moisture, higher rain chances, breezy onshore flow, elevated surf, rip currents, and possible coastal flooding concerns depending on the eventual track.
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