Flood watch Oct. 5, 2026
Provided by National weather Ser
USA TODAY Network, Reuters
Grab the umbrella and prepare for a soggy start to the week in Jacksonville. Rounds of heavy rain are expected across Northeast Florida as forecasters monitor a developing area of low pressure in the Gulf that could strengthen into a tropical depression by the middle or latter part of the week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
In Jacksonville, a flood watch remains in effect through Monday evening for areas along and north of I-10 in Northeast Florida, as well as all of Southeast Georgia. More than 3 inches of rain could fall in some areas, increasing the risk of flash flooding, especially where the ground is already saturated.
Flood watches, warnings and advisories have been issued across the Florida Panhandle and North Florida. Here’s what Jacksonville can expect as the wet weather continues this week.
➤ Track all active storms
Floods watch in effect until Monday evening, Oct. 5
Is there a hurricane coming to Jacksonville? See what forecasters are watching
No. There is no hurricane forecast to approach Florida as of 8 a.m. Oct. 5.
However, the National Hurricane Center said a tropical depression is likely to form in the Gulf later this week, and AccuWeather forecasters said the area of low pressure could become either a tropical depression or tropical storm.
What’s the weather forecast for Jacksonville this week?
Monday: Showers and thunderstorms likely throughout the day and into the overnight hours. High: 76. Low: 69.Rain chance: 80%. Up to ¾ inch of rain is possible.Tuesday: A very wet and breezy day with showers and thunderstorms likely. High: 76, low: 68. Rain chance: 90%. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible. Northeast winds could gust up to 29 mph.Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon. High: 79, low: 66. Rain chance: 40%. Winds will be strong, with gusts up to 34 mph.Thursday: Mostly cloudy with only a slight chance of showers, mainly during the afternoon and overnight. High: 81, low: 66. Rain chance: 20%. Breezy conditions are expected. Friday: Mostly cloudy with showers becoming more likely during the day, followed by showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight. High: 81, low: 69. Rain chance: 60%
NWS Jacksonville Radar
What’s happening in the Gulf? Heavy rain ahead for Florida
Tropical depression or tropical storm could form in Gulf this week. Will it impact Florida?
A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week.
This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percentFormation chance through 7 days: high, 70 percent.
“By later this week, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms in the southern Gulf and Bay of Campeche may organize into a tropical rainstorm and could eventually strengthen into a tropical depression or tropical storm,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.
“There is a reasonable chance, probably better than 50 percent that this does develop into at least a tropical depression,” said meteorologist Matt Lanza with TheEyewall.com on Oct. 4.
“A track generally north or northeast seems reasonable as well, putting Louisiana through Florida on some notice – not likely Texas. But I think what we are most confident in at this point is a heavy rain event for the Gulf Coast and Florida.”
Rainy week ahead for Florida
The Southeast will face repeated rounds of flooding downpours much of this week as tropical moisture interacts with a stalled front, while a separate area of tropical moisture could organize along the Gulf Coast, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
“An additional surge of tropical moisture is expected during the first half of the workweek across much of the Florida Peninsula as the stalled boundary shifts slightly south. With sufficient tropical moisture in place, heavy rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour will be possible.
“From Monday to Wednesday morning, 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected from Tampa through central Georgia and southern Alabama and across much of the Florida Panhandle. A corridor of 2-4 inches is forecast from Panama City to Jacksonville. Where the heaviest downpours persist, 4-8 inches is expected across part of northern Florida. The AccuWeather Local StormMax is 14 inches.”
The rain isn’t limited to North Florida and the Panhandle.
Heavy rain is possible each day this week, the National Weather Service Tampa Bay posted on X.
“A wet pattern is expected to continue through much of the work week as a frontal boundary sinks southward and stalls over Central Florida,” the National Weather Service Melbourne posted on X.
Rain chances increase during the week for South Florida.
Flood watches, warnings, advisories issued for parts of Florida
Florida weather radar for Oct. 5, 2026
Hurricane Center also watching 2 tropical waves
The NHC is tracking two tropical waves:
A tropical wave is along 55W, south of 20N, moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along 83W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 17 mph.
What do the colored, hatched areas on the NHC map mean?
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone – which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane – could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
➤ Hurricane Center is testing new cone: What’s changing the season
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with orange medium and red high. In 2026, the tropical outlook will use a gray X to indicate disturbances with a low chance for development.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
What is a disturbance?
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map highlights “disturbances” in the Atlantic basin.
These are clusters of storms with some organization, but which don’t have a defined circulation typical of tropical cyclones.
➤ Ready or not, National Hurricane Center resumes daily tropical outlooks
If shown on the tropical outlook map in orange or red, forecasters are predicting the potential of those disturbances into developing as medium or high, respectively.
Disturbances shown on the map with a gray x have little to no chance for development. This is a change from prior years which indicated such disturbances in yellow.
What is a tropical wave?
“Tropical waves are clusters of showers and thunderstorms that act as the seedlings for many tropical storms throughout the Atlantic season,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, via email.
“There are about 60 tropical waves that move across the Atlantic each year, and roughly 10 percent to 15 percent of them develop into a tropical system. That’s about one in seven.
“Tropical waves are important because they contribute to about 80 percent of all major hurricanes.”
Could 2026 be a year of no hurricanes for Florida, Atlantic basin?
If this year’s Atlantic season has no hurricanes by Nov. 30, it will be only the third time it has happened based on records dating back to 1851, and you have to go back more than 100 years, to 1907 and 1914.
It is possible there were undocumented hurricanes, but records before the satellite era began in 1966 depended on observations from those nearby.
➤ A hurricane-free 2026 is within reach, but we’re not in the clear yet
There is time, since the season doesn’t end until Nov. 30, and waters near the U.S. keep the risk alive, according to AccuWeather.
Colorado State University predicting below-normal tropical activity for first half of October
In its two-week tropical forecast issued Sept. 30, Colorado State University is predicting below-normal activity, although “global model signals are hinting at potential for TC development in the southern Gulf in the 8-13 October timeframe.”
Historically, the primary threat area for major hurricane formations for the first half of October “shifts farther to thewest, with formations picking up considerably in the western Caribbean.”
CSU forecast for Sept. 30-Oct. 13:
above-normal: 2%normal: 20%below-normal: 78%
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
➤ Hurricane Center testing new cone: What’s changing this season?
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on maps and in advisories.
Countdown clock to end of 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
How many tropical storms, hurricanes are in a typical season?
The 30-year average, from 1991 to 2020, is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season was Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
What are names for 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Here are the names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and how to pronounce them:
Arthur: Tropical Storm Arthur formed June 17, 2026Bertha: Tropical Storm Bertha formed July 20, 2026Cristobal: Tropical Storm Cristobal formed Aug. 12Dolly: Tropical Storm Dolly formed Aug. 27Edouard: Tropical Storm Edouard formed Sept. 1Fay: Tropical Storm Fay formed Sept. 20, Sept. 23, and Sept. 28Gonzalo: Tropical Storm Gonzalo formed Sept. 24Hanna: Tropical Storm Hanna formed Sept. 28Isaias, ees-ah-EE-ahsJosephine, JOH-seh-feenKyle, KY-ullLeah, LEE-ahMarco, MAR-koeNana, NA-naOmar, OH-marPaulette, pawl-LETRene, re-NAYSally, SAL-eeTeddy, TEHD-eeVicky, VIH-keeWilfred, WILL-fred
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What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
Doris Alvarez is a Breaking and Trending Reporter for The Florida Times-Union. You can get all of Jacksonville’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday by signing up for the free Daily Briefing and News Alerts newsletters at jacksonville.com/newsletters
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: As tropical depression looms in Gulf, what should Jacksonville expect?
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Reporting by Doris Alvarez Cea and Cheryl McCloud, Jacksonville Florida Times-Union / Florida Times-Union
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Conditions in the Gulf and Florida 6 a.m. Oct. 5, 2026. PHOTO PROVIDED BY NOAA/NESDIS USA TODAY Network, Reuters
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This story was originally published October 5, 2026 at 11:51 AM.