While it’s still early to forecast, experts said Tuesday that there’s potential for a tropical storm or even a Category 1 hurricane to form this week in the Gulf that could drench an area from eastern Louisiana to Florida’s Big Bend.
The season’s next named storm or hurricane, Isias, could form from a rapidly organizing trough of low pressure currently located near Mexico in the Gulf.
AccuWeather said Tuesday that it expects the Gulf system to become “the first hurricane in the Atlantic this season, and possibly the latest first-hurricane on record.”
“The storm is already becoming better organized faster than expected, and the environment around it is becoming increasingly favorable for strengthening,” said AccuWeather hurricane expert Nicholas Arman. “The warm waters in the Gulf will provide plenty of fuel, and winds high in the atmosphere are lining up in a way that could help the storm strengthen more efficiently.”
Initially given a 20% chance of development within the next seven days by the National Hurricane Center on Sunday, by early Tuesday its odds had spiked to 90% within two to seven days.
“It seems like a significant rainstorm will precede a potential tropical storm or hurricane impact this weekend on the Gulf Coast, somewhere east of central Louisiana,” wrote Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza on his Eyewall blog.
Though prediction models vary widely at this point, Lanza on Tuesday cited Google’s model guidance of “a 30 percent chance of a hurricane, or perhaps a 5 percent chance of a major hurricane.”
AccuWeather on Tuesday estimated rain totals of up to 8 inches could drench a swath from Alabama to the Florida Panhandle, an area that has recently seen a lot of rain, increasing the potential for flooding. AccuWeather is calling for 8-12 inches of rain across southern Alabama and Mississippi.
So far in the Atlantic this season, no hurricanes have formed. It is the first time no hurricanes have formed prior to Oct. 1 in the satellite observation era, which began in 1966.
Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.