Storm clouds bring an ominous look to Fort Myers on Friday, Aug. 7, 2026. Despite recent rains, parts of Southwest Florida are still seeing drought conditions.
Andrew West/Fort Myers News-Pres
USA TODAY Network, Reuters
Truly cold weather is rare in Southwest Florida.
The weather rarely gets below 40 degrees, and when it does it’s usually only for a few hours.
In Southwest Florida, people tend to complain about heat when its 80 and cold when it gets below 70.
“Compared to up north, it’s still quite warm,” said Eric Oglesby, a National Weather Service meteorologist. “It can get below 60 degrees, and by the end of the month it can get below 50 degrees, but the average high right now is 89 degrees with a low of 73 degrees.”
Short version: It still feels like summer in Southwest Florida. But that won’t last.
So, when will it cool down?
That happens in stages as we swing through the winter months.
Halloween is actually the day on which average lows hit the 65-degree mark for this region, according to NWS records that date back to 1902.
But the average high for Halloween here is still 84 degrees, which is not exactly pumpkin spiced latte cold.
A record low for the month of 45 degrees was set on Oct. 28, 1957, and the record high for a day in October is 95 degrees (last reached on Oct. 8, 2009).
Southwest Florida stays relatively warm in November, with the highs hovering around 80 degrees during turkey week.
Nov. 30 is typically the first day we see with highs below 80 degrees, according to NWS records.
But temperatures here have been as low as 34 degrees (wow) on four occasions the month of November (the most recent being in 1970).
On average, Oct. 23 is the first day of the year when lows reach 60 degrees.
The true mark of cold weather here is basically anything below that 60-degree mark.
It’s not until the last two days of December that temperatures in Southwest Florida, on average, dip to 55 degrees.
Then we get into January of 2027, which is when temperatures are typically at their lowest point.
The average low for mid-January is 54 degrees, and from there conditions begin to warm again.
The coldest temperature on record in Fort Myers is 34 degrees, which was set on Jan. 27, 1905 at the Page Field Airport.
So, when will we see that first substantial cold front, the one that makes us think of eggnog?
“It’s hard to give any type of date or range like that,” Oglesby said. “Every year is independent of the last year. But (soon) the boundaries won’t bring cold air so much as the air will be drier behind it.”
Dry air is certainly welcome in a region that’s humid most of the year.
National Weather Service records don’t lie. It can freeze in Naples, Florida
Naples has recorded lows of 26 degrees on two occasions (1982 and 1977).
So, there’s an 8-degree difference between the record low for Fort Myers and the record low for Naples.
How could that be when Naples is further south?
Well, it’s all about the location of the weather gauges, and in both towns the historic weather gauges have been located at the local airports.
Page Field is much further inland than Naples Airport, so that part of Fort Myers stays warmer than coastal Naples, which is near the Naples Airport.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, is predicting average temperatures for all of south Florida in December, January and February.
El Nino’s impact on winter
It may seem strange that a small shift in the surficial temperature of Pacific Ocean equatorial waters can heavily impact winter weather here as that’s halfway around the planet.
But it does, and it’s called the El Nino-La Nina oscillation, and it was first noticed by South American fishermen in the 1800s.
“We’re going into a strong El Nino winter and we’re typically wetter and the average now is showing warmer but it’s typically cooler because of the added clouds and rain,” Oglesby said.
There is also an increased chance of severe weather, including tornadic activity, through March.
“It can happen sooner than that but that’s when it’s most active,” Ogelsby said.
Chad Gillis is an environment reporter and can be reached by email at cgillis@news-press.co
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This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Jack Frost likely won’t visit SW Florida this year, but it will cool off
Reporting by Chad Gillis, Fort Myers News-Press & Naples Daily News / Fort Myers News-Press
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National weather forecast for Oct. 2. Coastal areas along the Panhandle are expected to receive between 6 and 8 inches of rain through Monday, according to the National Weather Service Provided by the National Weather USA TODAY Network, Reuters
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This story was originally published October 5, 2026 at 11:10 AM.