Hurricane Isaias strengthened overnight and is forecast to grow into a major Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds before making landfall tonight on the Florida Panhandle, according to the National Hurricane Center.

“Isaias will likely become a major hurricane soon with the improving satellite imagery, and it could continue to intensify for the next 12 hours or so while it moves over very warm and deep water,” said hurricane center senior hurricane specialist Eric Blake. “However, a large increase in shear is anticipated before landfall, which will probably cause some weakening to occur.”

It is expected to strengthen to 120 mph sustained winds and gusts of 150 mph as its center is about 150 miles from a projected landfall near Pensacola. It is then forecast to drop back down to a strong Category 2 hurricane, making landfall late Friday or early Saturday.

“Regardless of its exact wind speed at landfall, Isaias will be a dangerous hurricane with significant storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding rains,” Blake said. “The wind field is also predicted to grow due to a trough interaction, and some of these impacts will extend well away from the center.”

Isaias quickly strengthened into a Category 2 storm Thursday afternoon.

“Isaias is going to bring multiple dangerous hazards to portions of the northern Gulf Coast beginning on Friday continuing into Saturday,” said hurricane center director Michael Brennan. “We are expecting Isaias to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes landfall.”

Isaias’ bands could drench Florida’s Panhandle and Big Bend with as much as 15 inches of rain, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory. A storm surge ranging from 1-6 feet is forecast from the Florida’s Big Bend through southeastern Louisiana, AccuWeather reported.

“The worst impacts of Isaias are going to be exaggeratedly on the eastern flank of the storm. But basically, anyone east of Biloxi is on notice, with a special notice for folks between Mobile and Destin right now,” Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza wrote, regarding potential landfall, on his Eyewall blog.

“Hurricane Isaias now holds the record as the latest forming first hurricane in the Atlantic Basin, breaking the previous record set by Hurricane Four in 1905 by 3.5 hours,” AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alexander DaSilva said.

Hurricane Isaias tracking map: Here’s the latest forecast and warning areas

Isaias forecast

As of the hurricane center’s 8 a.m. advisory, Isaias was a strong Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds, just shy of Category 3 status. It was located about 245 miles south of Pensacola and 170 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River moving north-northeast at 15 mph.

Hurricane-force winds extend out 30 miles while tropical-storm-force winds extend out 185 miles from its center.

A hurricane warning is in effect from Florida’s Bay-Gulf County line west to Ocean Springs, Mississippi with a tropical storm warning in Florida east of the Bay-Gulf County line to the Aucilla River and west of Ocean Springs to the Jefferson-Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana.

A storm surge warning is in effect from the mouth the Mississippi to the Suwannee River in Florida and a storm surge watch farther south to Yankeetown, Florida.

“A life-threatening storm surge is expected from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida. Residents in the warning area should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so,” the hurricane center said in its latest advisory.

Some parts of Florida from the Panhandle to the Big Bend could bear the brunt of the most significant rainfall, up to 15 inches as bands of the storm pass over the state. From Friday through the weekend, it’s expected to drop 3-7 inches across the central U.S. Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to southeastern Louisiana. Another 1-3 inches with up to 5 inches could drop across much of the Southeast U.S. as far north as the Tennessee Valley and Carolinas bringing with it flash and urban flooding with some isolated river flooding.

El Niño effect

During El Niño, low-level surface winds blowing from east to west across the Pacific are weakened or sometimes reversed. It causes a shift in the jet stream and drives record global heat, severe droughts, wildfires and shrinking water supplies. El Niño also typically curtails hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. When tropical systems form in the Pacific Ocean during El Niños, that increases wind shear in the Caribbean, making it difficult for storms to form there.

Notable hurricanes that have hit the eastern United States during an El Niño include Lili in 2002, Ivan in 2004 and Idalia in 2023.

But now, the wind shear in the Gulf has weakened a bit compared with other tropical regions, so the Gulf is “a little more primed for development,” said Lindsey Long, a meteorologist with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

Storm surge threat

Isaias brings an increasing risk of strong winds and “life-threatening” storm surge for areas of the northern Gulf Coast, the hurricane center said. Some areas in the Panhandle, including Indian Pass and the Aucilla River, and Yankeetown could see storm surge between 4 to 7 feet.

Santa Rosa Beach, Sandestin and Freeport in the Panhandle could see significant to extensive impacts from wind and storm surge, including some damage to mobile homes and roofing, scattered power outages, potentially impassable roads from large debris and the possibility for “structural damage to buildings, with several washing away,” the local National Weather Service office said.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded the state of emergency order to 27 counties in North Florida. The Florida National Guard is mobilizing about 5,000 personnel, along with hundreds more from the Florida State Guard, Florida Fish and Wildlife and Florida Department of Law Enforcement.

Hurricane history

Be wary of hurricanes that start with the letter “I.”

The ninth letter of the alphabet leads all others in the number of named Atlantic storms that have been retired over the decades due to their destruction or high death tolls. The names may be out of circulation, but storms including Ian, Ida, Igor, Ike, Inez, Ingrid, Iota, Irene, Irma, Isabel and Ivan left lasting legacies. 

“It’s the ‘I’ storm, which usually we have a lot earlier in the year,” said Kristen Corbosiero, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the University at Albany. “It’s always the ‘I’ storms that seem to cause problems.

Hurricanes starting with “I” typically occur in the middle of the June 1-Nov. 30 season, when warming ocean waters can supercharge a storm’s energy.

The timing of Isaias is an exception to this trend, due to the current super El Niño weather pattern, which stunted Atlantic hurricane formations through September while cranking out storms throughout the Pacific region.

Overall Atlantic hurricane activity, using a measurement that deals with the number of storms, their strength and how long they last, is on track to be the quietest since modern data started around 1950, thanks to El Niño, which could become the strongest one ever recorded, Colorado State University hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach said.

Since the start of the satellite era, the latest date for the first Atlantic hurricane to form was Sept. 11, both in 2002 and 2013, the weather service said.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.