CLERMONT, Fla. — The first official forecast for the 2026-27 U.S. citrus season points to lower orange production nationwide, with a sharp decline in Florida expected to outweigh increases in California and Texas, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service, part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Florida is expected to produce about 10 million boxes of oranges this season, down 23% from nearly 13 million boxes last season.
“Something that we kind of expected, but still is pretty troubling,” Commercial Crop Production Extension Agent II with UF/IFAS Extension Matt Smith said. “We saw a significant drop in the expected harvest for such as this year, particularly oranges in the state of Florida.”
According to the forecast, nationwide orange production is projected to fall 3% to 61.7 million boxes.
The main factor the report points to was the weather.
“A lot of that can really be attributed to the really bad freeze we had in January,” Smith said. “We not only lost some trees, but we also lost a lot of canopy on those trees.So the plants, without having a lot of ways to get energy from the sun, have a very hard time developing fruits.”
At The Showcase of Citrus in Clermont, Manager Tara Boshell said the farm is still dealing with the effects of a February freeze that damaged citrus trees and reduced fruit production.
“Since the freeze in February, I think it was pretty much February 1st of 2026. We have seen some decline in our fruit production,” Boshell said.
Boshell said the farm used irrigation to help protect its trees and was able to save most of them, but the damage means less fruit will be available for customers. She said weather-related losses have become a familiar challenge for Florida growers.
“We see this… it seems like every other year or every year, whether it’s a hurricane, a freeze or whatnot, we are so unfortunately used to not having huge production,” Boshell said.
Boshell said the farm expects to have some citrus available in January from trees that made it through the freeze, though the crop is running a few months behind schedule.
“We will have a small crop, not a great crop,” Boshell said.
She said the smaller crop means the farm loses sales rather than raising prices for customers.
“I mean, we just lose the sale. We don’t increase our price to the customer anymore,” Boshell said. “It’s just we we’ve lost that season of availability.”
To help offset the losses, The Showcase of Citrus is turning to other experiences, including tours and seasonal events.
“We have lost our citrus sales pretty much for this year, but we need to make it up in another viable way,” Boshell said.
Florida Citrus Mutual said the industry is also seeing signs of recovery, including healthier trees and improved fruit quality.
“The devastating freezes last winter were a speed bump on our road to recovery,” Matt Joyner, executive vice president and CEO of Florida Citrus Mutual, said in a statement. “But there are many signs that point to strong performance in the years ahead.”
Boshell said she remains hopeful for future seasons.
“We do hope that things change… and maybe if Mother Nature cooperates a little bit more with us,” Boshell said.
The USDA’s next citrus production forecast is scheduled for release in mid-January, followed by updates in April and July.