Congressional District 2 Democratic candidate Amanda Marie Green and Republican candidate Austin Rogers
Tallahassee Democrat
USA TODAY Network, Reuters
Republican Austin Rogers and Democrat Amanda Green, who are contending to replace outgoing U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn in Congress, will meet in their only Leon County candidate forum, on Oct. 27.
The luncheon and forum is hosted by the Network of Entrepreneurs & Business Advocates at the Capital City Country Club. Rogers and Green are vying for the seat in north Florida’s 2nd Congressional District.
Rogers holds significant advantages in fundraising and endorsements in a race for a seat the GOP has held for 14 of the last 16 years. Former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, D-Tallahassee, broke the GOP dominance when she defeated incumbent Republican Steve Southerland in 2014 and served one 2-year term.
Rogers – a former aide to U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Naples – has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, has the backing of major business organizations, and holds a nearly 5-to-1 fundraising advantage.
Green is a longtime operations director for a international development contractor and has sought to build a coalition of Democrats, independents and disaffected Republicans. Her campaign has tried to tap into farmers’ anger over trade policies; residents concern about rising prices and independents dissatisfied with Washington Republicans to flip a seat many view as safely Republican.
Green has the endorsement of former Congressman Allen Boyd, D-Monticello, a Jefferson County farmer who held the seat for 14 years. And she has the backing of Blue Dog PAC, which supports fiscally conservative and national security-focused Democrats, as well as backing from the North Florida Chapter of the Alliance for Retired Americans.
The 2nd Congressional District stretches from Panama City across the eastern Panhandle and into the Big Bend region. Leon and neighboring Gadsden counties account for 42% of the district’s voters and traditionally provide the Democratic Party about 60% of their vote. Republican candidates usually win the district’s remaining 14 counties by about the same margin.
The upcoming forum represents one of the final opportunities for Green to gain support in the district’s Democratic stronghold while giving Rogers a platform to reinforce his standing among capital city business leaders and Republican-leaning voters.
There has been no publicly released independent general-election polling. Political observers forecast the race based on expected voter turnout, voting history and campaign finance reports.
Decision Desk HQ, an independent election forecasting and data organization, gives Rogers an 89% chance of victory and projects him winning about 54% of the vote. The Cook Political Report rates the race as “Solid Republican.” The district’s recent voting history also favors Republicans, with more than 58% of voters backing Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
James Call, a member of the USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida Capital Bureau, covers state government. He can be reached at jcall@tallahassee.com. Follow him on X: @CallTallahassee.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Amanda Green, Austin Rogers to face off in only Tallahassee forum
Reporting by James Call, USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida / Tallahassee Democrat
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This story was originally published October 19, 2026 at 5:02 AM.