Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights Predictions
Best Bet
Under 6.5 Goals @ -130
Bet Now
T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
We Think Under 6.5 Goals is the Value Bet
Appealing odds of -130 look too good to miss for the Under 6.5 goals selection. The Lightning and the Golden Knights might not have enough scoring power.
Get the complete Lightning vs Golden Knights betting breakdown, featuring our Best Bet, Player Props, Same Game Parlay and Correct Score Prediction. Review the detailed segments below for the complete analysis of each pick.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights Preview
The Tampa Bay Lightning clash with the Vegas Golden Knights at T-Mobile Arena, with face-off scheduled for 22:30 on Tuesday, October 20.
Tampa Bay Lightning made it back-to-back wins after a 4-2 home success over Vancouver Canucks at Benchmark International Arena. Nikita Kucherov registered two goals, with Jake Guentzel and Pontus Holmberg also finding the net.
Vegas Golden Knights last game was a 6-2 victory over Pittsburgh Penguins at T-Mobile Arena. That means it’s now been four home wins on the spin. Mark Stone recorded 3 points, including 1 goal and 2 assists.
H2H: Lightning 6-3 Winners in Most Recent H2H
The Lightning have beaten the Knights in the last two encounters. They won 2-1 (OT) at Benchmark International Arena and triumphed 6-3 at T-Mobile Arena. In the past 10 games between the teams, the Lightning have won six.
Starting Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy (Confirmed)
Season
W-L-OTL:
GAA:
SV%:
SO:
26/27
4-2-0
2.5
.886
0
25/26
42-19-4
2.3
.910
3
Carter Hart (Confirmed)
Season
W-L-OTL:
GAA:
SV%:
SO:
26/27
4-2-0
2.4
.911
0
25/26
25-11-3
2.6
.901
0
Tampa Bay Lightning – Last 10 Games
7 wins and 3 losses, averaging 2.7 goals from 30.9 shots on goal, with a 9.1% powerplay efficiency. The Lightning have given up 2.3 goals from 22.3 shots, averaging 3.4 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 85.3%.
Brandon Hagel is the top points scorer with 12 points, 6 goals and 6 assists, with Nikita Kucherov recording 10 points, 3 goals and 7 assists, over the last 10 games. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 2.12 goal against average with a .901 save percentage, including one shutout.
Vegas Golden Knights – Last 10 Games
The Knights have 8 wins and 2 losses, averaging 4.1 goals from 29.8 shots on goal, with a 20.8% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 2.4 goals from 25.4 shots, averaging 3.4 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 82.4%.
The top points scorer is Jack Eichel with 18 points, 5 goals and 13 assists, while Mark Stone is next in line after registering 14 points, 7 goals and 7 assists. Goalie Carter Hart have a 2.35 GAA with a .911 SV%.
Best Bet
We should take advantage of the -130 when it comes to the teams going under the total goals line in this NHL encounter. These odds look to be on the generous side.
Key stats supporting our main match prediction:
The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Lightning games.The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Lightning games on the road.
The handicappers at Sportsgambler.com always keep close tabs on team news as it develops. We also rely on recent form and key NHL stats to help shape our hockey predictions and guide the final call.
Under 6.5 Probability
According to the top sportsbooks, our pick has a 56.5% chance of winning. However, our cappers research has found that the actual probability is between 60-65%. The bet can be recommended for this precise reason.
Looking for Bigger Odds?
If you’re going Under with your bet, then you can take the option to include this selection in a Bet Builder and get potentially bigger odds. Combine it with other picks.
Get extra value on your next wager with our list of betting offers—featuring welcome bonuses, free bets, and promotions.
Under 6.5 Goals @ -130
Watch Live
Bet Now
BetMGM Promo
Promotions on BetMGM!
Get Bonus
T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+
Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Oct 20, 02:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Published 02:56, 20 October 2026
Player Prop Picks
Mitch Marner (Golden Knights) has finished with at least one assist in 6 straight games. Using this stat, we can therefore back him at -105 when it comes to a Player Assists bet which looks like a value pick.
Latest Mitch Marner Player Prop Odds
Goals
Assists
Shots on Goal
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
Books Expecting Close Encounter
Vegas Golden Knights are currently available at -110 and you can get the exact Moneyline odds about Tampa Bay Lightning. The sportsbooks therefore have the same probability about the two teams.
1.5 is where the puck line lies, with total goals being 6.5 right now. The beauty of Totals is that you only have to choose from one of two options. The Over 6.5 selection is available to back at +104.
National Hockey League fans are spoilt for choice thanks to the wide range of team props and game lines which are available for every matchup on the coupon. Head to the top betting apps and find the best value wagers.
Brandon Hagel Favorite to Find the Net First
Brandon Hagel can be backed to light the lamp at anytime at +175. He is the favorite to score the first goal at odds of +1100.
Player Goals
Brandon Hagel (Lightning)
Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)
Brayden Point (Lightning)
Jake Guentzel (Lightning)
Player Assists
Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)
Jack Eichel (Knights)
Mitch Marner (Knights)
Brandon Hagel (Lightning)
Player Shots
Brandon Hagel (Lightning)
Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)
Brayden Point (Lightning)
Jake Guentzel (Lightning)
Micro Betting
An increasing number of bettors are now enjoying micro betting on the NHL and it’s something which is available on an in-game basis. Wait for the action to start and then wager on something specific to happen.
Live market odds and lines updated regularly. All odds subject to change. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Team Stats
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Tampa Bay Lightning Stats
Vegas Golden Knights Stats
7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games
+1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games
+1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 games on the road
-1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 5 of the last 10 games
-1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 home games
Game Totals: An average of 5.00 goals in the previous 10 games
Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.00 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
Over 6.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games on the road
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.70 goals and allowed 2.30 goals in the last 10 games
Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 2.00 pts and allowed 3.00 goals in the last 10 games on the road
Game Totals: An average of 6.60 goals in the previous 10 games
Game Totals at Home: An average of 6.30 goals in the previous 10 home games
Over 6.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 home games
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 4.20 goals and allowed 2.40 goals in the last 10 games
Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.60 goals and allowed 2.70 goals in the last 10 home games
Last 10 Games
Goals Powerplay: 0.4
Shots: 30.9
Goals Shorthanded: 0
Penalties: 3.4
Empty Net Goals: 0.3
Penalty Minutes: 8
Blocks: 16.9
Faceoff Wins : 25.8
Hits: 24.5
Giveaways: 15
Takeaways: 4.1
Last 10 Games on the Road
Goals Powerplay: 0.4
Shots: 24.3
Goals Shorthanded: 0
Penalties: 5.9
Empty Net Goals: 0.1
Penalty Minutes: 16.1
Blocks: 15.1
Faceoff Wins : 24.3
Hits: 26.6
Giveaways: 16.8
Takeaways: 5.2
Last 10 Games
Goals Powerplay: 1
Shots: 29.8
Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
Penalties: 3.4
Empty Net Goals: 0.2
Penalty Minutes: 9.1
Blocks: 13.9
Faceoff Wins : 29.4
Hits: 19.6
Giveaways: 17.4
Takeaways: 4.1
Last 10 Home Games
Goals Powerplay: 0.8
Shots: 29.8
Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
Penalties: 2.8
Empty Net Goals: 0.2
Penalty Minutes: 7
Blocks: 13.2
Faceoff Wins : 29.7
Hits: 30.3
Giveaways: 18.9
Takeaways: 4.8
Expert Analysis by Robert Carter
NHL Analyst
About the Analyst
Our ice hockey previews are produced by a specialised team of analysts, former odds compilers and sports journalists. Picks are research-driven and reviewed for accuracy and editorial consistency under the oversight of our hockey panel and Editor-in-Chief.
NHL Predictions Methodology
Our NHL analysis combines the latest team news, injury reports and line changes with recent form and market movement. We factor in situational analysis like home ice advantage and schedule spots. Metrics such as Corsi, Fenwick, Expected Goals (xG) and PDO are used to evaluate puck possession, shot quality, goaltending performance and special teams efficiency beyond the traditional box score.
Full Prediction Methodology & Data Sources
Sites Referenced
Betting sites, prediction market platforms and social betting sites referenced have been independently reviewed under our published review methodology, which evaluates betting lines, odds and market depth, event contracts and pricing, licensing and security, payment processes, withdrawal reliability, responsible gambling tools and additional platform criteria relevant to user experience and regulatory standards.
Read our BetMGM Analyst Review
Transparency & Safety
This preview was last updated on Oct 20, 16:38 to reflect the latest team news, injury reports, confirmed lines and pairings, starting goaltenders, lineup changes, schedule context, key performance metrics and odds movement.
All analysis is produced by professional analysts, supported by proprietary internal models, advanced performance metrics and reviewed by our Ice Hockey Editorial Betting Panel for accuracy and consistency.
Historical performance for our game predictions is tracked and updated regularly for transparency.
Important: Betting should be treated as entertainment and involves risk. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Only wager what you can afford to lose.
Trading and cryptocurrency investments carry a high level of risk. Capital is at risk.
18+ (or legal age). If gambling is causing harm or distress, support is available. Visit our Gamble Responsibly hub for safer gambling tools, self-exclusion options and local helplines.
Editorial Policy | Disclaimer