JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by 2 percentage points in Florida’s governor’s race, while Republican U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon by 4 points, according to a new University of North Florida poll.
Donalds vs. Jolly: Where Florida’s governor candidates stand on AI, data centers and Amendment 3
The poll of 1,471 likely Florida midterm voters found 49% support Donalds and 47% support Jolly. Moody leads Nixon 49% to 45%. The overall margin of error is plus or minus 2.81 percentage points, meaning the governor’s race is within the poll’s margin of error. Five percent of respondents were undecided in the Senate race.
The results, from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab, show narrower leads than the lab’s July poll, which had Donalds ahead by 5 points and Moody by 8.
“Though Donalds enjoys a slight advantage, these numbers suggest a competitive gubernatorial race,” Sean Freeder said, the lab’s faculty director and a political science professor. He said the tighter contest may reflect national political factors, including the difficulty the president’s party often faces in midterm elections.
Independent voters favor Jolly by 16 points and Nixon by 15 points, the poll found. Donalds led Jolly among voters on property insurance, 43% to 38%. Voters were nearly even on affordability and cost of living, with 43% trusting Jolly more and 42% Donalds. On data centers, 41% said they trusted Jolly more, compared with 37% for Donalds.
The poll also asked about campaign messages in the Senate race. Twenty-five percent of respondents said Republican messaging about Nixon’s ties to the Democratic Socialists of America made them less likely to vote for her; 12% said it made them more likely, while 55% said it made no difference.
Asked about Democratic messaging concerning a Hope Florida grand jury report and Moody, 30% said it made them less likely to vote for Moody, 9% said more likely and 53% said it made no difference. Among independent voters, 38% said the messaging made them less likely to vote for Moody.
On Amendment 3, which would increase the homestead property tax exemption over time for purposes other than school taxes, 50% said they would vote yes, 35% no and 14% were undecided. The amendment would need 60% approval to pass.
The poll also found 61% of respondents prioritized environmental protection, even if it curbed economic growth and development. Twenty-six percent said economic growth and development should take priority, even if the environment suffered to some extent.
Freeder said turnout will be key in the governor’s and Senate races, but polling cannot determine how many voters will cast ballots. The poll was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish from Oct. 12 to 19. The lab said it weighted results to reflect Florida’s electorate and that estimates for smaller groups have larger margins of error.
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