Amendment 3, the $250,000 homestead exemption, needs 60% to pass. It is at 44%, and the ballots already cast say no.

A constitutional amendment that would raise the homestead exemption to $250,000 in 2028 has 44% support among likely voters in a new St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics. It needs 60% to pass. Another 39% oppose Amendment 3 and 17% are undecided with six days until Election Day.

Reaching 60% would take 96% of the undecided vote. Among voters who have made up their minds, the measure is at 53%. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

Republicans outnumber Democrats on the rolls by roughly 1.5 million, 5.69 million to 4.15 million at the Oct. 5 book closing, with 3.35 million more registered to no party. The rolls are R+8. The sample is R+12. At the registration split, support is 43%.

St. Pete Polls’ mid-September survey had the measure at 45% support, 30% opposed, and 25% undecided. Its Oct. 5-7 survey had it at 42%, 35%, and 23%. Opposition has risen 9 points since September.

Forty-six percent of respondents said they had already voted. They oppose the measure 45% to 40%, with 15% undecided. If every one of those undecideds voted yes, that group would land at 55%. Among the 54% who still plan to vote, the measure has 48% support, 34% opposed, and 18% undecided. It would need two-thirds of those undecideds to reach 60% in that group alone.

Republicans support the amendment 62% to 24%, with 14% undecided. Republicans are 40% of the 3.15 million ballots returned through Tuesday morning, per the Division of Elections. Democrats oppose it 61% to 23%. Independents split 39% to 39%, with 22% undecided. St. Pete Polls reports its demographic breakdowns before weighting.

Voters under 30 oppose the amendment 63% to 28%. Those 30 to 49 oppose it 43% to 42%. Support is 45% to 38% among voters 50 to 69 and 48% to 32% among those 70 and older, a fifth of whom are undecided.

White voters support it 48% to 37%. Black voters oppose it 43% to 33%, with 25% undecided. Hispanic voters oppose it 45% to 36%. Men split 43% to 41% and women 44% to 37%.

No media market in the survey reaches 60%. Tampa, the largest, has 43% in favor and 42% opposed. Orlando opposes it 43% to 42%. Miami supports it 44% to 35%, Jacksonville 48% to 38%, Fort Myers 44% to 39%, and West Palm Beach 43% to 38%. Panama City comes closest at 58%, on 19 respondents.

A Mason-Dixon poll for NBC 6 and Telemundo conducted Sept. 28 through Oct. 1 had it at 55% support, 26% opposed, and 19% undecided.

Amendment 3 would raise the homestead exemption for non-school taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 and tie further increases to inflation starting in 2029. It would also cut the annual cap on assessment increases for non-homestead property from 10% to 5% and limit what counties and cities can spend property tax revenue on. State economists project it would cut local non-school property tax revenue by $4.95 billion in fiscal year 2027-28 and $11.86 billion a year once fully phased in, with no replacement funding.

Gov. Ron DeSantis, gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds, and the Republican Party of Florida back the amendment. Florida Realtors is funding the Vote Yes on 3 political committee. The Florida Sheriffs Association, the Florida State Fraternal Order of Police, the Florida Professional Firefighters, and nearly a dozen local Chambers of Commerce oppose it. Former Senate President Kathleen Passidomo, who voted to put it on the ballot, is voting no. DeSantis has said he does not know whether it will reach 60%.

St. Pete Polls surveyed 916 likely voters Oct. 25-27 for Florida Politics, using automated phone calls for 71% of responses and peer-to-peer text messages for 29%. Respondents were drawn at random from the state’s registered voter file as of Oct. 14. Results were weighted by political party, race, age, gender, and media market to match Florida’s active voter population. The weighted sample is 43% Republican, 31% Democratic, and 27% other. Voters who said they do not plan to vote in the General Election were excluded. The survey asked whether voters support or oppose “the state constitutional amendment 3 ballot question that would eliminate non-school property taxes on homesteaded primary residences.” The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

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Ed. note: This story was drafted with assistance from AI. Editorial judgment, sourcing, and final review were performed by Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics editorial team.