For once, the House of Horrors doesn’t look so scary.
The Patriots are touchdown favorites heading down to South Florida for their first of two games this season against a rebuilding Dolphins team under new coach and former Boston College headman Jeff Hafley.
Drake Maye and Co. are still expected to take care of business, despite the fact A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson were ruled out Saturday afternoon. Last year, the Pats (4-3) escaped Miami with a 33-27 win, which means a victory Sunday would give them back-to-back road wins in this divisional rivalry for the first time since 2012.
Unlike last season, the Patriots are one of the most banged-up teams in the NFL, now down Brown, Henderson, Romeo Doubs, Alijah Vera-Tucker and others. Will they blow out the 1-5 Dolphins anyway? Eke by them? Or lose in an upset?
Here’s what to watch for in South Florida:
When Patriots run
A rested Rhamondre Stevenson is the best thing for the Patriots’ rushing offense in light of Henderson’s absence. Stevenson continues to talk the bulk of carries, even though he saw just six last week during a Thursday night loss at Chicago, where Maye led the Patriots in rushing with 26 yards he gained entirely on scrambles.
Injuries along the offensive line are partly to blame for the Pats’ rushing struggles (they rank in the bottom half of the league by most rushing metrics). But Stevenson currently accounts for 53% of all broken tackles the Patriots have forced this season, one of a few indicators that no player is doing more with less when the ball is in his hands than he is.
Behind Stevenson, Corey Kiner is steadily averaging 4.3 yards per carry and Lan Larison signed to the 53-man roster Saturday. In his only game appearance this season, Larison did not take any hand-offs, but caught two passes for nine yards during a Week 1 loss at Seattle.
When Patriots pass
Even if Brown had been available for Sunday, the Patriots were likely to feature other players with their game plan. Why?
Miami’s defense ranks bottom-5 in the league at covering running backs and tight ends, which should open the door for plenty of throws to Hunter Henry and Eli Raridon. When the Patriots have fielded their top two tight ends together, they’ve run some of their best offense of the year statistically. Raridon recorded his second 50-yard receiving game last week versus the Bears and also caught a touchdown pass.
New England Patriots tight end Eli Raridon (82) gains yards after a catch as Chicago Bears cornerback Tyrique Stevenson (29) defends during the first half of an NFL football game in Chicago, Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
Out wide, the Pats are down to DeMario Douglas and second-year receivers Efton Chism III and Kyle Williams. Amid all the injuries and an up-and-down season personally, Douglas ranks second on the team with 23 catches. Ryan Miller was also elevated off the practice squad to provide depth.
The only wrench, it seems, the Dolphins could throw into what should be a short passing attack will be if they can confuse Maye. Miami has played five different coverages on at least 14% of their defensive snaps this season, despite fielding a young secondary. Maye gave proper credit to Halfey’s staff during his weekly Wednesday press conference.
“They do a lot of different things, variety-wise. They’ve got young guys. They’ve got a mix of some veterans,” Maye said. “They’ve got some guys that we’ve seen in the past that are good players, (defensive tackle Zach Sieler) up front, (defensive end Chop Robinson). I know they’re creating some havoc, and they’ve got some young rookies in the middle.”
When Dolphins run
Ollie Gordon leads Miami in total rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and rushing attempts.
But Gordon, who averages 4.7 yards per carry, isn’t the Dolphins’ most dangerous runner. That’s quarterback Malik Willis, whom Miami will use on designed runs and happily watch scramble for first downs. Willis has taken fewer than half of Gordon’s 72 carries, yet almost matched him in first downs gained. He’s also rushed for three touchdowns.
Up front, the Patriots will likely load the box to force Willis into passing situations. Look for defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr to call for more single-high coverages, heavier personnel packages and zone defense to keep eyes on Willis and the Dolphins contained.
When Dolphins pass
The boys are back.
Patriots cornerback Carlton Davis, officially listed as questionable, expects to play Sunday, which would give this defense a healthy secondary for the first time since Week 1.
“It’s going to be great,” said Davis, who’s missed the last three weeks with a neck injury. “Just having all the guys back, being at full power, being able to go out there and feed off each other and make plays together.”
As a passer, Willis is completing 57.6% of his passes for 1,057 yards, four touchdowns and four interceptions. The Patriots have harped on more takeaways all week, having averaged just one per game. Expect them to pay extra attention to wide receiver Malik Washington (26 catches, 289 yards) and tight end Greg Dulcich (18 catches, 213 yards), as the only Dolphins with double-digit receptions this year.
Prediction
Patriots 23, Dolphins 10