When Miami opens the second half of the regular season at home Friday night against Louisville, the Hurricanes will do so as 14-point favorites, the No. 2-ranked team in the country, and with 54 percent odds to win the Atlantic Coast Conference.
So, can Miami fans reserve hotel rooms in Charlotte and begin preparing to spend lots of money traveling to playoff games in January? History tells us to proceed with caution.
Miami’s record under Mario Cristobal after the calendar turns to November hasn’t been good — regardless of the opponent. Last season, the Hurricanes were 9-0 before losing three of four down the stretch. In 2023, the Canes were 1-4 over their final five games, and in 2022, they were 1-3 in their final four.
The good news: Eight of those 10 post-October losses came against ranked opponents, and there isn’t any one on Miami’s remaining schedule currently ranked. In fact, the Hurricanes will likely be favored in all seven of their remaining games.
We’ll get to ranking the toughest remaining teams on Miami’s schedule shortly, but we’ll start by addressing a few other key questions first:
Can Miami maintain its dominance on the line?
What makes Miami elite is how it is performing on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
Miami’s offense leads the nation in pressure per pass attempt allowed, and its defense, behind edge rushers Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor, ranks fifth in creating pressure on opposing teams (44.7%).
Per TruMedia, opponents are creating pressure on only 15.3 percent of Miami’s dropbacks — the next closest team is top-ranked Ohio State (18.7%). SMU is the next-best team in the ACC when it comes to protecting the quarterback with a 24.3 percent pressure rate, which ranks 18th nationally.
Last season, the Canes allowed pressure on 27.8 percent of their pass attempts, 31st among FBS teams.
Opponents have decided to sit back in coverage instead of bringing extra blitzers against Carson Beck. Miami is the eighth-least blitzed team in college football this season (19.6 percent) compared to last season, when it was blitzed on 29.1 percent of quarterback dropbacks (48th). Oregon is the only top-25 team facing fewer blitzes than Miami.
Will that change in the second half of the season? Probably. Florida State (29th) and Notre Dame were the only opponents Miami faced that ranked in the top 50 in blitz percentage. Three of Miami’s opponents ranked in the top half in defensive pressure rate: Florida State is 41st (34.6%), USF is 52nd (33.6%) and Notre Dame is 55th (33.3%).
Three other teams in the ACC — including two on Miami’s schedule — rank in the top 10 in defensive pressure rate: Louisville is second (46.8%), Pittsburgh is eighth (42.4%) and Duke is 10th (40.0%).
On the flip side, Miami has faced only one team ranked in the top 50 in protecting its quarterback from pressure. That was Notre Dame, which ranks 40th (26.9%). SMU is the only remaining opponent on Miami’s schedule in the top 50.
Can Miami win if Beck is forced to throw more?
The Hurricanes have one of the most balanced offenses in college football, ranking 39th in passing yards per game (264.2) and 62nd in rushing yards per game (163.80). Those numbers would probably be better if Miami didn’t appear to take its foot off the gas offensively against Florida State and Notre Dame.
Still, Miami is scoring more than enough points (35 per game) to win games and has proven it can slow down high-octane offenses: Florida State ranks fifth in scoring (44.2 points per game) and Notre Dame ranks 14th (40.0).
But what happens if opponents decide to blitz Beck more? What if opponents slow down the run and make the Hurricanes more one-dimensional (as Florida State attempted to)?
First of all, Beck has been one of the best quarterbacks in college football, ranking 13th in passing efficiency and tied for fourth in completion percentage (73.4%). He has thrown 11 touchdown passes against only three interceptions while averaging 242 passing yards per game (38th among all FBS passers).
He’s a different passer, though, in a clean pocket (77.2 percent completion percentage, 9 TDs, 1 INT on 126 dropbacks) vs. when he’s under pressure (7-of-17, 2 TDs, 2 INTs on 21 dropbacks).
There’s no doubt opponents are going to try and bring extra pass rushers at him going forward. When he’s been blitzed, Beck has completed only 60.8 percent of his passes for five touchdowns and three interceptions. When he hasn’t been blitzed, Beck has picked apart opponents, completing 79.8 percent of his passes for six touchdowns and no picks.
To this point, Beck has connected on 21 of his 45 throws 10-plus yards down the field for six touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s far more effective throwing shorter, quicker routes. Miami’s 8.04 air yards per target ranks 107th among all FBS teams. What makes Miami’s passing game effective is yards after the catch.
The Hurricanes rank 16th in YAC with 152 yards per game, second-best in the ACC behind Pittsburgh (159).
Standout freshman Malachi Toney plays a huge role in that, accumulating more than 27 percent of the team’s YAC total. Toney’s 42.2 yards per game after the catch ranks 17th among all FBS receivers, the best mark in the ACC.
Louisville’s pass defense is the toughest left on the Hurricanes’ schedule. The Cardinals rank 14th in pass efficiency defense, second in the ACC behind Wake Forest.
Miami ranks third in pass efficiency defense in the ACC and second in rushing defense (87.4 rushing yards allowed per game). Only Pittsburgh (82.17 yards per game) is stingier against the run.
Miami has played only one top-50 pass defense to date: Notre Dame (40th).
How many good quarterbacks remain on Miami’s schedule?
Miami has beaten two quarterbacks ranked in the top 25 in passing efficiency: Notre Dame’s CJ Carr (No. 7) and Florida State’s Tommy Castellanos (No. 23).
There are several quality quarterbacks left on the schedule, including SMU junior Kevin Jennings (19th in QB efficiency), NC State sophomore CJ Bailey (26th) and Pittsburgh freshman Mason Heintschel, who would qualify to be a top-15 passer in efficiency if he maintained the numbers he’s produced over his first two starts (wins over Boston College, Pittsburgh).
To this point, the Hurricanes have faced two receivers in the top 50 in yards per game: South Florida’s Chase Nimrod and Florida State’s Duce Robinson. Nimrod had a season-high 128 yards on four catches against the Hurricanes; Robinson had six catches for 87 yards against Miami.
Two top-50 receivers await on Miami’s remaining schedule: Louisville’s Chris Bell (fifth with 100.4 receiving yards per game) and former Hurricane Romello Brinson of SMU (26th, 80.7 yards per game).
Who is Miami’s toughest remaining opponent?
You could certainly argue it’s themselves.
To this point, the Hurricanes have turned it over only three times and are plus-six in turnover margin.
They’re also one of the most penalized teams — ranking 115th in penalties (7.6) and 98th in penalty yards (62.8) per game.
Realistically, it would take an implosion for the Hurricanes to lose to Stanford (2-4, 1-2 ACC), Virginia Tech (2-5, 1-2) or Syracuse (3-3, 1-2), especially with two of those three games at home.
NC State (4-3, 1-2) will have a bye week before it travels to Hard Rock Stadium on Nov. 15 with Bailey, a South Florida native, at quarterback. But the Wolfpack have struggled on defense (13th among 17 ACC teams in points allowed).
That makes Louisville (4-1, 1-1), SMU (4-2, 2-0) and Pittsburgh (4-2, 2-1) the Hurricanes’ toughest remaining opponents. The Cardinals are the toughest matchup on paper, but the Mustangs and Panthers host the Hurricanes once the calendar flips to November.