Tuesday night made things simple and clear for the South Florida Bulls — they appeared in the College Football Playoff rankings at No. 24, meaning wins in their final three regular-season games and in the American Conference championship game would deliver a Playoff berth.

Things quickly got complicated Saturday afternoon in Annapolis, Md. Conference foe Navy jumped all over USF, built a 24-9 halftime lead and held on for a 41-38 win — delivering a crushing blow to USF’s Playoff hopes — despite losing star quarterback Blake Horvath to injury for much of the second half. Backup Braxton Woodson delivered several enormous plays in relief of Horvath, finishing with 103 yards and two touchdowns rushing and completing both of his passes for 39 yards.

The one-handed grab by Heidenreich 😲

💻 https://t.co/1x4PegW0Hh #GoNavy | @ESPNCFB | @American_Confpic.twitter.com/bxmFurGU35

— Navy Athletics (@NavyAthletics) November 15, 2025

The win puts Brian Newberry’s Midshipmen (8-2, 6-1 American) alone in first place in the league most likely to produce the Group of 5’s Playoff representative. That isn’t a lock, though, and it’s possible the American will end up beating itself up and watching another Group of 5 league end up with the reward in the end.

The Athletic’s Austin Mock projected USF with a 45 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff with a win over Navy. Navy’s win gives the Midshipmen a 4 percent chance, according to Mock’s model, while Alex Golesh’s Bulls (7-3, 4-2) plummet to a 3 percent chance. Beyond the American hopefuls, Sun Belt leader James Madison appears to be in the best position to get the nod.

USF needs help in the league race after blowing a lead in a previous road loss to Memphis. USF established itself as the G5 team to watch with a rout of Boise State and an upset win at Florida in September, and at times still seems like the team with the most potential to cause trouble. Y,et its chances are extremely slim, considering the four American teams with one loss in league play as of the completion of the USF-Navy game.

Tulane, North Texas and East Carolina are the other three teams that entered Saturday with one league loss. North Texas was building a huge lead on hapless UAB early in the day, with East Carolina hosting Memphis and Tulane hosting Florida Atlantic later in the afternoon.

Navy has just one more conference game left, a biggie at Memphis on Nov. 27, a Thanksgiving prime-time opportunity. Then it could be an opportunity in the American championship game, before Army-Navy, to finish the season as usual.

Navy had lost two straight games entering Saturday, at North Texas and by a count of 49-10 at Notre Dame, though Horvath missed that game with an upper body injury. Horvath got hurt in the second half against USF as well, with ESPN reporting it as a right calf injury. Woodson, though, came in and led a crucial touchdown drive — capped by his own 20-yard run — to restore a two-score lead after USF got it to 27-24 on a 60-yard Byrum Brown scoring sprint.

Then Woodson delivered an apparent knockout punch with a 64-yard touchdown run with 3:59 left. USF wasn’t done yet, though. Brown — who threw for 327 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 136 yards and a pair of touchdowns — led a 75-yard touchdown drive that took 124 seconds, capped by a 2-point conversion pass to make it 41-38.

Horvath, who had been riding a bike on the sideline to stay loose, was able to come back in late and help Navy kill most of the clock from there.