Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 11’s game between the Buffalo Bills and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Orchard Park in mid-November feels like a season-level verdict for the Bills and Buccaneers both, apiece at 6–3. Buffalo chases the Patriots in the AFC East while Tampa protects a thin NFC South cushion and legacy. Cold air, possible rain-snow mix, and a steady WNW wind promise real strain on timing and tackling. Josh Allen carries a top-three EPA offense and the league’s best rushing output into that weather. Baker Mayfield brings a low-mistake, YAC-heavy attack and a roster banged up but still opportunistic. This feels like a referendum on Buffalo’s run defense leaks and Tampa’s ability to manufacture explosives without star receivers. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 11’s game between the Buffalo Bills and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Buffalo’s plan starts on the ground now, not as garnish. They lead the league at 153.2 rushing yards per game, with James Cook second in rushing yards at 920. Cook’s 166 carries at 5.5 yards per rush and seven scores force safeties down and linebackers honest. Add Allen’s seven rushing touchdowns and scramble threat, and every zone read feels like a math problem. That run gravity feeds a passing game still sitting at 384.4 total yards and 27.6 points per Sunday. Khalil Shakir now leads them with 45 catches for 457 yards, plus five games above a 23% target share. Even without Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo still sits at +0.14 EPA per play and a 48.5% success rate. Against a Bucs defense allowing 233.2 passing yards and 61.9% red-zone TDs, that efficiency still travels.

Tampa’s offense lives in the gray: efficient enough, rarely catastrophic, and built around Mayfield’s control and YAC. He has 2,192 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, just two interceptions, and drives a unit scoring 24.4 per game. Tampa sits around +0.02 EPA per snap with a 42.1% success rate, firmly above water but not explosive. Rachaad White has only 325 rushing yards at 3.7 per carry, yet his usage stabilizes everything when they trail. Emeka Egbuka leads with 40 catches, 677 yards, and six scores, while rookie Tez Johnson adds vertical speed. Cade Otton’s breakout month matters too, after nine catches for 82 yards and steady 21.2 fantasy points lately. Most importantly, 51.6% of Tampa’s passing yards come after the catch, exactly where Buffalo’s defense quietly bleeds. Buffalo has held receivers to one or fewer YAC yards on only 30 of 152 receptions, a bottom-three rate.

Buccaneers vs. Bills pick, best bet

The best Tampa +5.5 argument stacks directly on Buffalo’s weakest columns: run defense, tackling, and turnover math. Buffalo allows 147.6 rushing yards per game, 5.47 yards per carry, and 14 rushing scores, all bottom-tier marks. They’ve already surrendered 40 runs of ten plus yards and ten more of twenty, which fits Tampa’s desired script. Mayfield protects the ball, with that 0.57% interception rate and a roster sitting at +8 turnover margin. Zoom out, and, since MAyfield arrived, the Buccaneers are 13–4 against the spread and have covered six straight after losses. In ugly, low-40s weather that compresses explosives and total plays, that kind of ball control usually holds numbers tight. That’s the real danger here, but it still leans on a Bucs run game sitting at −0.02 rushing EPA. They have only one run longer than eighteen yards all season, even after Henderson gashed this Bills front last week. If Buffalo simply tackles to expectation and steals one takeaway, that carefully balanced Tampa cover case starts wobbling.

Market-wise, this sits with Buffalo laying around 5.5 and a total hovering in the high forties. That number respects the Bills’ third-ranked offensive EPA and number-one rushing output without handing them a free script. Tampa’s defense has earned respect too, at −0.05 EPA per snap with only 100.8 rushing yards allowed each week. They have allowed just three touchdowns on the last seven red-zone trips after opening the year shakier there. Still, Buffalo owns the bigger separation on money downs and inside the twenty, where spreads usually live or die. Buffalo converts 43.9% on third downs against Tampa’s 36.5%, and 65.6% vs 52.0% on offensive red-zone touchdowns. Over four quarters, that gap in conversion and finish rate is often what turns a field goal lead into seven.

Game script wise, I expect Buffalo to lean hard into eleven personnel, motion, and Cook’s wide-zone against Bowles’s fronts. Early downs should stress horizontal space, forcing linebackers to choose between fitting 5.5 yards per carry or rallying to Shakir. When Tampa squeezes inside, Allen can take isolated shots to Keon Coleman or create explosives himself against man coverage. On the other side, Buffalo will crowd the box, accept some White checkdowns, and dare Mayfield to sustain thirteen-play marches. The Bills’ pass rush still sits top-five in sack rate, and their secondary shrinks windows even without perfect tackling. Tampa’s YAC will land, but short fields and true explosives are harder without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Bucky Irving.

I’m still on Bills −5.5 in this weather, expecting the balance and situational edge to matter late. Call it Bills 27, Buccaneers 20, with Buffalo’s ground game and third downs breaking Tampa’s remarkable post-loss ATS streak.

Best bet: Bills -5.5 (-115) vs. Buccaneers

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For a prop lean, I’m going back to Rachaad White receptions, just up the ladder. Books are hanging 4+ catches at +160, with the board still listing him at 2.9 receptions per game. That per-game mark bakes in early-season usage; since Bucky Irving went down he’s averaged 13.5 PPR points, driven by targets whenever the run game stalls. We just cashed his 3.5 at −115 against New England, and the role hasn’t softened—if anything, Buffalo’s profile sharpens it. The Bills allow 5.5 yards per carry, 14 rushing scores, and the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs, forcing extra bodies into the box and inviting checkdowns when Mayfield faces a top-five sack rate. In a likely negative script chasing Buffalo’s offensive efficiency, I’d rather ride White’s underneath volume than gamble on suddenly efficient carries; give me Rachaad White 4+ receptions at +160, with the comfort that he already cleared our 3.5 threshold last week.

Best prop lean: Rachaad White 4+ receptions (+160)

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