Miami Heat ESPN(Mandatory Credit: Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

The only time that the Miami Heat finished as the No. 1 seed in the East since the Big 3 was in 2021-22, the year they acquired Kyle Lowry and P.J. Tucker in free agency.

They were projected to win 48.5 games that year. Heading into the 2025-26 season, they were projected to win 37.5 (depending on where you looked).

Yet, that isn’t stopping one projection system from believing they will secure the No. 1 seed in the East by season’s end through one month of the season.

Basketball Reference currently thinks the Heat will finish … as the No. 1 seed?!

No, you don’t have to rinse your eyes out. I see it too!

Miami enters Sunday’s matinee showdown against the Philadelphia 76ers at 10-6. It’s the first time since the end of 2023-24 that they were four games above .500.

The Heat’s first 15 games were also expected to be the most arduous section on their schedule. And it all came without Tyler Herro, who’s recovering from foot surgery. Yet, they lead the NBA in scoring and pace with the fourth-best defense, 10th-best effective field goal percentage, 11th-best true-shooting percentage and 12th-best offense.

Led by Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo and Jaime Jaquez Jr., the Heat have played the third-hardest schedule in the NBA, according to Dunks & Threes. Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities are banking on the Heat cruising through the rest of their schedule.

According to Tankathon, the Heat have the fourth-easiest schedule left (based on opponents’ combined winning percentage). Currently, they are on a 51-win pace. To go 53-29, they would have to go 43-23 the rest of the way.

Miami is playing great basketball right now. But every team (and player) will have peaks and valleys throughout an 82-game season. Heck, do you think Miami will get past 48-50 wins, let alone reach 53? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

***

To check out our other content, click here.

Follow Hot Hot Hoops on Twitter/X here!

Follow Hot Hot Hoops on Instagram here!

Check out Hot Hot Hoops on Facebook here!

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here!