That is what separates the Croatan, Jacksonville and Northside high school football teams from playing in the state championships games.
The Cougars, Cardinals and Monarchs all found ways to win their home third-round games last week. As a reward, all three practice on Thanksgiving Day then play fourth-round games on Black Friday.
The victors of Friday’s games advance to next week’s East Regional final – one step shy of the state final. And just throwing it out there that if Croatan and Northside both win, they clash in the regional final.
But first, the Cougars and Monarchs have to take care of business. The same goes with the Cardinals, who are one victory from playing in a second consecutive regional final.
Who wins Friday’s NCHSAA fourth-round games? Here are my thoughts and predictions:
No. 7 Rocky Mount (9-3) at No. 3 Northside (10-2)
Northside put “Survive and advance,” to good usage as the Monarchs have found different ways to win their first two playoff games.
In the second round, the Monarchs led just 21-20 in the third quarter after Person scored two touchdowns in a span of less than two minutes before Northside pulled away 41-20. Last week, Northside led St. Pauls 28-6 at halftime before holding on 28-21.
Next up for Northside in the fourth round of the 5-A playoffs is a home clash with Rocky Mount, which finished third in the Big East 5-A/6-A Conference behind Northern Nash (6-A) and Hunt (5-A) – two teams also playing Friday.
Rocky Mount’s other defeat was a 20-16 season-opening loss to undefeated Tarboro, which remains in the 2-A playoffs.
What stands out about the Gryphons is that they don’t throw much as they have attempted just 66 passes, but they depend on a balanced and likely time-consuming running game. Rocky Mount doesn’t have a 1,000-yard rusher, but has one with 838, one with 788 and another with 660. The trio has combined for 33 touchdowns.
Northside will likely load the box, but the Monarchs must not be lulled to sleep and forget about Gryphons potentially throwing a surprise pass.
Coastal 5-A/6-A Conference tri-champion Northside has forced multiple turnovers the last two weeks. It would bode well for the Monarchs to again to give themselves extra possessions by forcing turnovers or even recover onside kicks – like they did last week.
Offensively, the Monarchs must take care of the ball, something they have struggled with in recent games. Northside also averaged just 3.2 yards per rush last week, so it’s important to take pressure off junior quarterback Reginald Gray III by producing first downs via the run. Juniors Jamir Mitchell and Anoop Monroe are playmakers on both sides for Northside.
Again, Northside has found ways to win. Because of that, I am sticking with the Monarchs to win a grind-it-out game.
Prediction: Northside 21, Rocky Mount 18
No. 4 Union Pines (11-1) at No. 1 Jacksonville (11-0)
It’s obviously natural for the competition to get tougher the deeper the postseason goes, and that’s certainly the case for Jacksonville as it hosts Union Pines in the fourth round of the 6-A playoffs.
The Cardinals survived last week with a 35-34 win over Scotland County while Union Pines grinded out a 17-7 win over Williams.
Carolina Pines 6-A Conference champion Union Pines has won 10 consecutive games following a 21-16 loss to 8-A Pinecrest in week three.
The first thing that stands out about the Vikings is that they’ve held nine opponents to single digits, including four shutouts. Union Pines appears to have many defensive players who get to the ball. It would serve Jacksonville well to not be one-dimensional.
Junior Amari Pearson will certainly get his carries for the Big Carolina 6-A/7-A Conference champion Cardinals.
However, senior Amari Betton needs to produce positive gains as he did last week while senior quarterback Anthony Washington must also be an offensive threat as a runner and passer. Connecting with junior SaRonn Thompson or even senior Jessie James could keep Union Pines’ defense honest.
Defensively, the Cardinals have their hands full as Union Pines’ offense is balanced. Jacksonville struggled defending the run last week, but look for the Cardinals to make adjustments.
Jacksonville’s defensive line and linebackers force the issue since the secondary will already be tasked with defending the Vikings’ aerial attack.
Look for plenty of highlights from both teams. In the end, I give Jacksonville the slight edge by scoring a late game-winning touchdown.
Prediction: Jacksonville 31, Union Pines 27
No. 4 Croatan (11-1) at No. 1 Hunt (10-2)
Croatan’s magical season continued last week as junior Kannon McBride’s last-second 32-yard field goal lifted the Cougars past Havelock 22-21 in a game featuring two of the three Coastal 5-A/6-A Conference champions.
Croatan next travels to top-seeded Hunt, which finished second to 6-A Northern Nash in the Big East 5-A/6-A Conference. The Warriors’ other loss was 34-17 to Tarboro in week two.
Hunt is more of a running team with two 1,000-yard rushers, who have combined for 2,571 yards and 35 touchdowns. Hunt doesn’t appear to make a lot of huge plays via the pass, but the Warriors look to throw when they need to stretch out defenses.
Croatan did concede big passing plays last week so it would serve the Cougars well to be aware of Hunt’s receivers.
The Warriors, however, have yielded points. Hunt has allowed 21 or more points eight times, although the Warriors have a player with 44 tackles for loss and another with 39.
Look for Croatan to try to establish the run early with junior Andrew Boucher. If Hunt tries to contain Boucher, McBride will have a chance to showcase the Cougars’ passing game, which has come up big this season.
Seniors JP Baccoli and Riley Robinson will have a chance to shine if Hunt focuses on Boucher.
McBride’s kicking abilities have been vital, but Hunt also has a dependable kicking game. I can see both teams settling for field goals, with the key being which team finds the end zone.
Who wins? My head says Hunt, but my heart picks Croatan. I’ll go with the Cougars one another late field goal.
Prediction: Croatan 24, Hunt 21