College Football Playoff Rankings: Projecting top 25 teams ahead of penultimate reveal

Alabama’s spot in the College Football Playoff race is not up for debate according to coach Kalen DeBoer. Ranked 10th entering Tuesday night’s penultimate top 25 from the selection committee, the Crimson Tide could be on the outside looking in if they lose to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game given comparable resumes from fellow at-large hopefuls Miami and BYU.

“We’re in the championship game with a 7-1 record,” DeBoer said Sunday. “Won four conference games on the road in the toughest conference. I mean, it’s the toughest conference in the country. For us to be in this spot and to do what we do, won 10 of our last 11 games — you can get into a lot more details on it.

“I just think when you’re really trying to have a playoff, you need your best teams in there. There’s no doubt in my mind that we are one of the best teams. I don’t say that arrogantly. I just really believe that’s what it is.” 

In our latest playoff top 25 projection at CBS Sports, we believe there are 10 spots accounted for with five teams vying for the remaining two at-large vacancies. Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Oklahoma are all safe, along with the two additional highest-ranked conference champions (ACC, Group of Six). The No. 9 and 10 spots are up for grabs between Notre Dame, Alabama, BYU, Miami and Texas.

Conference championship weekend will determine how the back end of the bracket looks Sunday afternoon. Until then, here’s our prediction for Tuesday night.

1. Ohio State (12-0): Ohio State continues to make things super easy on the committee this season. The Buckeyes’ second-half runaway against Michigan on the road snapped a four-game skid in the rivalry series and ended all potential chaos scenarios in the Big Ten. The defending national champions are one more win from being the top seed in the bracket. That said, a date with Notre Dame in the quarterfinals would feel like a matchup that should be reserved for at least semifinal billing. Last week’s ranking: No. 1

2. Indiana (12-0): The Hoosiers have virtually guaranteed themselves of a first-round bye regardless of Saturday night’s result in Indianapolis. Getting a crack at unbeaten and top-ranked Ohio State is what Curt Cignetti’s team has wanted all season and now, the opportunity’s here. It could be the first of two games against the Buckeyes the rest of the way, if both of these teams perform as well as expected in the playoff. Last week’s ranking: No. 2

3. Georgia (11-1): A revenge win over Alabama in the SEC title game gives the Bulldogs — at worst — the No. 2 seed in the final bracket. Wins over Tennessee, Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech this season stick out as resume-definers and Georgia has earned its opportunity to play for a league crown. If Alabama beats Georgia this weekend, look for the Bulldogs to get a home game later this month. Last week’s ranking: No. 4

4. Texas Tech (11-1): The Red Raiders should move into the top four after Texas A&M’s loss to Texas, much of that due to another blowout victory against Big 12 competition. The road hiccup at Arizona State is the only weekend this season Texas Tech has looked human, a testament to the preparation level and overall talent roster-wide Joey McGuire has assembled. A win over BYU locks in a top-four seed in our estimation. Last week’s ranking: No. 5

5. Oregon (11-1): No team has looked better down the stretch than the Ducks, who beat Iowa, USC and Washington to finish with 11 wins. There’s an argument to be made for a top-four seed if conference title weekend gets a bit wacky, but the likelihood of three Big Ten teams garnering first-round byes is small. When you consider Oregon’s lone loss came to Indiana, the conversation starts to deteriorate quickly. Last week’s ranking: No. 6

6. Texas A&M (11-1): Where does the committee put the Aggies after falling at Texas? Previously ranked at No. 3, we could see Texas A&M being pushed all the way to No. 7, but sixth seems more likely ahead of several other SEC at-large picks. Mike Elko’s team has earned a first-round home game given notable wins at Notre Dame and Missouri, but the resume lacks thereafter. Last week’s ranking: No. 3

7. Ole Miss (11-1): If Ole Miss had two losses right now, we could see the committee pushing the Rebels out of a first-round home game opportunity given their current state without Lane Kiffin and many of his top offensive assistants. And while Ole Miss could still be docked for losing a significant number of assistants, you would have to consider one of the teams that would be graded higher — Oklahoma. The Rebels beat the Sooners on the road this season and have looked considerably better down the stretch. A source told CBS Sports Sunday afternoon that the immediate promotion of Pete Golding should be seen as a positive by the committee in terms of stability. Last week’s ranking: No. 7

8. Oklahoma (10-2): The Sooners will be the highest-ranked among the two-loss teams this week, but is Oklahoma deserving? While Brent Venables’ defense is one of the nation’s best entering the postseason, the Sooners are struggling to generate consistency on the other side of the football. A potential first-round home game against Notre Dame would not be a favorable matchup for Oklahoma. Last week’s ranking: No. 8

9. Notre Dame (10-2): One of two bubble teams we’re projecting to remain inside the top 12, the Fighting Irish ended on a 10-game winning streak, many of those results coming in blowout fashion. The metrics side with Notre Dame, independent of the head-to-head loss to Miami to open the season. One point to watch this week is the committee possibly inching the Fighting Irish ahead of Oklahoma at No. 8. That would lock in a berth no matter what happens during conference championship weekend. It would be a bold move from the committee and a slap in the face to Miami. Last week’s ranking: No. 9

10. Alabama (10-2): Facing a playoff elimination game over the weekend at Auburn, the Crimson Tide made enough plays down the stretch to fight another day — and earn a spot in the SEC Championship Game as a result. No other team in this week’s rankings has higher fluctuation during conference title weekend, by the way. A win over Georgia pushes Alabama to a top-four seed and first-round bye while a loss opens the discussion for several bubble teams. Could the SEC’s potential runner-up be left out of a 12-team bracket? Last week’s ranking: No. 10

11. BYU (11-1): Kalani Sitake will pound the table for his team this week, much like SMU’s Rhett Lashlee did last season as the committee’s final at-large selection following the Mustangs’ loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship. It’s vital the Cougars look the part against Texas Tech after failing to show in their first game with the Big 12’s elite team. If BYU beats the Red Raiders, we’re looking at two Big 12 reps in the playoff and one of the final at-large picks — Notre Dame or Alabama — on the outside looking in. Last week’s ranking: No. 11

12. Miami (10-2): There are three factors to watch for the Hurricanes over the next few days leading into the committee’s final rankings Sunday afternoon. To earn the “last team in” designation as the No. 10 seed, Miami needs to hope for dominant wins from Georgia and Texas Tech in the SEC and Big 12 championship games or pray the committee finally power ranks the Hurricanes ahead of Notre Dame in the at-large discussion now that both teams have finished 10-2 with comparable wins over common opponents. Miami’s 31-point statement at Pittsburgh over the weekend will help, but there appears to be too much ground to make up on teams ahead of the Hurricanes. Last week’s ranking: No. 12

13. Texas (9-3): The good news? The Longhorns should make a three-spot jump in Tuesday’s update. The bad? There’s no path for Texas to reach the bracket as the final at-large. Steve Sarkisian’s team needed chaos during rivalry weekend after clubbing Texas A&M at home and it simply didn’t happen. Alabama, Miami, Notre Dame and BYU all could’ve helped the Longhorns’ case, but that quartet went 4-0. Last week’s ranking: No. 16

14. Vanderbilt (10-2): Let’s appreciate greatness for a second in Nashville. Clark Lea, not Kiffin, should be the SEC’s Coach of the Year after leading the Commodores to 10 wins, capped by Saturday’s triumphant victory at Tennessee. This was a monumental season for Vanderbilt and Lea was appropriately rewarded with a salary bump and new contract. The Citrus Bowl will choose between Vanderbilt and Texas since those two will be the first SEC teams out of the playoff. Last week’s ranking: No. 14

15. Utah (10-2): Despite finishing with 10 wins, the Utes never felt the love from the committee in November primarily due to their schedule. Cincinnati tanked after Utah’s 45-17 victory to begin the month while victories over Baylor, Kansas State and Kansas weren’t needle-movers. Last week’s ranking: No. 13

16. Michigan (9-3): Sherrone Moore’s team was a well-executed half away from taking down the Big Ten’s giant before the more-talented team prevailed in Ann Arbor. A Michigan win over Ohio State would’ve made things very difficult on the committee this week. Instead, the only question will be slotting the Wolverines ahead of USC despite the head-to-head loss in Los Angeles earlier this fall or following last week’s drill and keeping them ahead. Last week’s ranking: No. 15

17. USC (9-3): The Trojans would be singing a different tune this week with better execution defensively against Oregon two weeks ago, but the 2025 season remains a step in a positive direction in the Big Ten for Lincoln Riley. Closing it out with a victory over rival UCLA should keep USC at No. 17 in the penultimate top 25. Last week’s ranking: No. 17

18. Virginia (10-2): Calls for an ACC representative in the playoff fall on the Cavaliers, added pressure for Tony Elliott’s team this week. If Duke (7-5) wins the ACC Championship Game, there’s a good chance two Group of Six champions fill out the bracket as the Nos. 11 and 12 seeds while the ACC is left out. We think too many are assuming Darian Mensah and the Blue Devils get it done. Virginia beat Duke two weeks ago, 34-17, on the road. Last week’s ranking: No. 18

19. Tulane (10-2): The only Group of Six team in the rankings a week ago, that’ll change Tuesday night. We’re expecting the Green Wave to be the first of three inside the top 25. Florida announced Jon Sumrall as its new coach on Sunday afternoon, but he plans on finishing what he started at Tulane before going all-in with the Gators, per Tulane athletic director David Harris. Last week’s ranking: No. 24

20. Arizona (9-3): A surprising nine-win finish for the Wildcats should result in a rise to No. 20. That’s going to put Arizona in line for one of the Big 12’s top bowl games, a reward for ending the season with five consecutive victories that followed heartbreaking losses to BYU and Houston. Last week’s ranking: No. 25

21. North Texas (11-1): Our projected Group of Six champion for weeks, the Mean Green have a chance to earn their first playoff appearance with a win over Tulane in the AAC title game. Eric Morris will coach despite taking the Oklahoma State vacancy and has a quarterback in Drew Mestemaker who is one of the nation’s best. A potential first-round showdown at Texas A&M would be quite a draw in College Station if North Texas wins this weekend. Last week’s ranking: NR

22. James Madison (11-1): It’s time to start talking about Bob Chesney and the Dukes as a playoff team. As long as they take care of business in the Sun Belt Championship, James Madison likely earns the No. 12 seed next weekend if Duke topples Virginia in the ACC final. How that’s for Group of Six intrigue? Last week’s ranking: NR

23. Georgia Tech (9-3): Brent Key’s team showed fight against Georgia, commendable considering the Yellow Jackets had previously squandered opportunities to reach the ACC Championship Game down the stretch. Haynes King’s finale will come during bowl season at a program he will leave better than he found it. Last week’s ranking: No. 23

24. Missouri (8-4): The Tigers finished with a win at Arkansas, keeping the Razorbacks winless in SEC play. Had quarterback Beau Pribula not went down against Vanderbilt this season and been forced to miss time late, perhaps Missouri would be in the at-large conversation from the SEC with a better record. Last week’s ranking: NR

25. Tennessee (8-4): It’s hard to justify the Vols remaining inside this week’s rankings after their blowout loss to Vanderbilt, but the committee really doesn’t have to since they haven’t all season. Tennessee doesn’t have a single win over a FBS team that finished above .500, squandering a golden opportunity with a favorable slate this season by SEC standards. Since there’s four teams inside the top 20 with wins over the Vols, the only justification for keeping them ranked is to beef up those respective resumes. Houston (9-3) is another squad that could be in this spot. Last week’s ranking: No. 19