It’s conference championship week in college football and that means spots in the College Football Playoff are on the line. Georgia, Alabama, Texas Tech, BYU, Ohio State, Indiana, Virginia, Duke, Tulane and North Texas are all looking at “win and in” scenarios when it comes to the playoff. The Bulldogs, Red Raiders, Buckeyes and Hoosiers would all likely be in the CFP field if they were to lose their championship games. The same can’t be said for a handful of 10-2 teams, which are now in an unfavorable spot with Texas A&M losing to Texas in Week 14.
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The Aggies could’ve locked up a spot in the SEC title game with a win over the Longhorns, but they are now a one-loss squad in the at-large pool. The Ole Miss Rebels are also in, though they might get downgraded by the selection committee with Lane Kiffin set to leave for the LSU vacancy. The Aggies and Rebels have two at-large spots locked down thanks to their records and if Alabama were to beat Georgia, the Bulldogs would have two losses to the SEC champion and would likely be in. Both Texas Tech and BYU enter the Big 12 title game with one loss. The loser there would have two setbacks but again, one would be against a power conference champion.
Week 14’s results were already bad news for the likes of Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Utah and Miami but a Crimson Tide win this week would further complicate the at-large picture. Here’s a look at the latest odds for each program to make the College Football Playoff via FanDuel.
College Football Playoff odds (via FanDuel)Ohio State (OTB)Indiana (OTB)Oregon (OTB)Georgia (OTB)Alabama (-3000 to make, +1120 to miss)Texas A&M (OTB)Ole Miss (+3500 to miss)Oklahoma (+2200 to miss)Vanderbilt (+4000 to make)Texas Tech (OTB)BYU (+410 to make, -590 to miss)Utah (OTB)Virginia (OTB)Miami (+600 to make, -1200 to miss)Tulane (+104 money line vs. North Texas)North Texas (-125 money line vs. Tulane)James Madison (+138 to make, -170 to miss)Notre Dame (-420 to make, +310 to miss)
The Group of 5 representative will come from the AAC, where Tulane and North Texas will battle things out. Notre Dame has a spot as an at-large after rattling off 10 straight victories. The real question will be whether Miami has enough cache as a 10-2 at-large thanks to a win over Notre Dame, and whether that trumps Oklahoma and Vanderbilt’s resumes. BYU would also have a case if the Cougars lose the Big 12 title game, since they would only have losses against a conference champion which is being ranked highly by the committee.
The Sooners need Alabama to win to strengthen their case but everyone else benefits from the Crimson Tide losing to Georgia. Meanwhile, Miami, Vanderbilt, Utah and BYU all could benefit from an Alabama loss. Ole Miss, Oregon, Texas A&M and the loser of the Big Ten title game all feel safely in as at-large selections.
Here’s how we feel the bracket will look ahead of conference championship games when taking Week 14’s results and the implications of title game results into account.
College Football Playoff projected bracketNo. 1 Ohio StateNo. 2 IndianaNo. 3 GeorgiaNo. 4 Texas TechNo. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 12 TulaneNo. 6 Texas A&M vs. No. 11 VirginiaNo. 7 Alabama vs. No. 10 OregonNo. 8 Notre Dame vs. No. 9 Oklahoma